Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

Haven't seen any significant rain all week....what happened?

Two words... Bermuda High.

[gatorcane]

A bit of wording change from yesterday's NWS Miami disco.

.MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
A trough of low pressure will remain over the Central Gulf of
Mexico as high pressure remains over the Western Atlantic waters
through the Memorial Day Weekend. This should allow for the
tropical disturbance over the Yucatan Channel to move slowly
northward into the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, the
moisture associated with the circulation of the system will be
working into South Florida this Memorial Day weekend leading to
showers and even a few thunderstorms. Therefore, pops will remain
in the likely to categorical range over South Florida. Rainfall
could also be heavy at times leading to possible flooding
conditions. More on this in the hydro section below.

South Florida will also be in a favorable environment for
possible tornadoes this weekend as the winds will be turning in
height over South Florida, due to the tropical disturbance moving
northward through the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, will continue to mention this threat of isolated
tornadoes in the HWO outlook for South Florida for Saturday and
Sunday.

Please continue to monitor the latest outlooks from the National
Hurricane Center on the tropical disturbance through the Memorial
Day Weekend

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[boca]

I don’t think this weekend will be a rain out. I’m not canceling my BBQ plans for Monday. The rainfall amounts also dropped off a lot since yesterday.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m thinking that if the storm stays far enough away from the west coast of Florida out in the Central GoM the Bermuda High should be able to flex its muscles and push whatever storm system develop this weekend inland and towards the wes coast of Florida. Still should be more wet and unsettled compared to the last several days though.

[psyclone]

seabreeze collisions over the tampa bay area right now should yield some hefty thunderstorm development...and that may continue to zipper northward this evening. Rainy season in full swing a full month early this year for this area.

[MetroMike]

seabreeze collisions over the tampa bay area right now should yield some hefty thunderstorm development...and that may continue to zipper northward this evening. Rainy season in full swing a full month early this year for this area.

Yeah some seabreeze collision....they were about to hit Clearwater and was left with sprinkles. Was so angry they dried up quickly again.

[psyclone]

seabreeze collisions over the tampa bay area right now should yield some hefty thunderstorm development...and that may continue to zipper northward this evening. Rainy season in full swing a full month early this year for this area.

Yeah some seabreeze collision....they were about to hit Clearwater and was left with sprinkles. Was so angry they dried up quickly again.

Sometimes storms don't travel too far from their genesis point when moisture is marginal. that won't be an issue in the coming days..

[gatorcane]

The onset of deep tropical moisture has begun for South Florida and the FL Keys thanks to Alberto. Flood watches might be required as stated by NWS Miami.

[Patrick99]

It'll be interesting to see precisely where, and if, a good moisture fetch/tail sets up from Alberto. I feel like this could be one of those things where we either get a foot of rain with storms repeatedly training over us, or it's a total fake-out with little or no rain.

[marionstorm]

I am expecting a lot of rain. If it rains enough it wont take much wind to knock over the pine trees. Only good part of Irma was less rain than tropical storm Gabrielle. I worry there will be a center reformation near Tampa and this thing hits Apalachicola from the ESE.

[TheStormExpert]

Thanks to the Northeastern outflow of now Subtropical Storm Alberto the Southern half of the peninsula of Florida is lighting up like a Christmas Tree!

[gatorcane]

Yeah the radar is lighting up across the FL peninsula. Despite the storm being all the way down near Cozumel the much anticipated rain has begun...

[Patrick99]

We are off to a pretty decent start with Alberto in Miami, sporadic short lived heavy downpours over the past hour.

[gatorcane]

Flood watch:

Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Miami FL
203 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-260215-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0002.180526T1200Z-180528T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glades-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-
Inland Collier-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-
Metro Miami-Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
203 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Collier, Coastal
Miami-Dade, Coastal Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Glades,
Hendry, Inland Broward, Inland Collier, Inland Miami-Dade,
Inland Palm Beach, Mainland Monroe, Metro Broward, Metro
Miami- Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.

* From Saturday morning through Sunday evening

* Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected due to
deep tropical moisture streaming northward into South Florida.
Locally much higher amounts are possible. Rainfall of this
magnitude may lead to flooding.

* Grounds are fairly saturated from rainfall earlier in the week
so additional rainfall will more easily runoff and lead to
flooding. Flooding of canals, streets, and underpasses, as well
as other drainage areas and low-lying spots can be expected.
The hardest hit areas may see water intruding on vulnerable
structures and causing impassable travel lanes and roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

[gatorcane]

Alberto continues to dump piles of rain across SE Florida...curious how much the wind picks up here given the latest Euro forecast.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
355 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...Stormy With Locally Heavy Rain And Flooding Possible Through The
Holiday Weekend...
...Hazardous Marine And Beach Conditions Through The Holiday
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Sunday)...
Tropical moisture being advected northward from Sub-Tropical Storm
Alberto will keep a moist and unstable environment over the region
for the next 36 hours. TS Alberto is located just to the west of
Cuba and is expected to move north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico
moving west of Florida on Sunday and approaching the northern gulf
coast by Monday. The primary effects we will see from this storm in
west central and southwest Florida will be heavy rainfall, isolated
thunderstorms, gusty winds, and dangerous marine conditions. More on
that in the marine discussion.

Currently, light rainshowers continue to spread over west central
and southwest Florida as well as the gulf coast waters. Latest radar
imagery is showing the bands of showers spreading from southern
Floriida and approaching the Nature Coast with only a few ticks of
lightning inside embedded thunderstorms primarily over the gulf
coast waters. The 18Z afternoon upper air sounding is continuing to
show abundant moisture with a PWAT of 1.92 inches. The afternoon
sounding is also showing a thick layer of east through southeast
winds from 500MB and below which will drive a southeast to northwest
shower/storm movement through the day. Latest HRRR guidance is
showing a persistent coverage of rainfall continuing through the
evening hours and into Sunday morning. It looks as if most of this
will be light-moderate rainshowers with a few embedded
thunderstorms. Zone forecasts and coastal forecasts will be updated
based off the next TS advisory around 21Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night - Saturday)...
During Sunday night into Monday subtropical storm Alberto will be
moving north over the eastern Gulf, with the current official
forecast track from NHC moving Alberto onshore along the northern
Gulf coast late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Abundant
tropical moisture (PW's aoa 2 inches) streaming north into the
region on a deep layered southerly wind flow on the eastern side of
Alberto will maintain high rain chances (Pops in the 60 to 80
percent range) across the entire forecast area through Wednesday,
with numerous to widespread showers and isolated storms (additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible Mon-Wed) expected each
day, along with heavy rainfall which will continue the threat for
both areal and river flooding problems across the region, especially
in areas which see the training of the showers and storms.

[gatorcane]

Snippet from NWS Miami disco on Alberto impacts:

With all of this moisture in place, rain chances will remain high
through the rest of the weekend. Of particular concern is that for
late tonight and Sunday, South Florida will lie under a region of
upper-level divergence to the east of the deepening mid/upper level
low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico associated with Alberto, as
well as increasing low-level convergence and wind fields around the
periphery of Alberto`s large-scale circulation. This synoptic setup
is conducive for bands of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms to
not only increase in coverage but also in intensity as they move
north across the area. The end result is that our flood threat will
increase beginning late tonight and continue through Sunday, and
possibly Sunday night as well. The Flood Watch will remain in place
at least through Sunday evening, and we will continue to closely
monitor the threat of heavy rain and flooding even into Monday as
Alberto continues to affect the northern Gulf coast.

Along with the increasing threat of flooding, the potential for
isolated tornadoes will increase late tonight in response to the
strengthening low-level wind profiles, helicity values and
increasing instability. The highest tornado threat appears to be
late tonight and Sunday over Southwest Florida, but notable as well
over Southeast Florida. This corresponds well with SPC`s marginal
risk area over all of South Florida.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet:

UPDATE...
Raised rain chances overnight to nearly 100 percent as nearly
certain widespread rain will continue. Latest convective band is
pushing into far southern Florida nearly 1z and additional banding
is likely toward early morning. 0z RAOB indicates increasingly
favorable airmass for rotating updrafts as supplemented by HRRR
and other CAMs. Target time for enhanced tornado risk appears to
be 5z-13z, so will be continuing to closely monitor. SPC continues
with Slight Risk of tornadoes and damaging winds south and west of
a Naples to Miami line overnight, with Marginal Risk for remainder
of CWA. Flood Watch and Small Craft Advisory continues areawide.
High Risk of Rip Currents on East coast through Monday, with High
Risk Sunday for Gulf Coast. Will be also monitoring for minor
tidal inundation along the Gulf coast Sunday, particularly around
high tide with is roughly midday. A Coastal Flood Statement is in
effect along the Gulf coast where a foot or so of inundation is
possible. Last but not least, Tropical Storm Warning in effect for
outer Gulf Waters, beyond 20 nm offshore. Latest observations from
buoys in the Gulf and also in and near the Keys should tropical
storm force wind gusts are likely already occurring in this area.
8PM NHC advisory on Subtropical Storm Alberto reveals weak,
disorganized storm with max. sustained winds of 40 mph, though
highest winds are present well east of the center. Alberto should
make its closest approach to South Florida during the morning
Sunday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[Taffy]

I am watching all the declarations go up and the high water rescue teams set up and can’t help but wonder if this is all knee jerk reactions from what was learned from Irma and Harvey. I know it is better to err on the side of caution but it just seems inflammatory. I am in SW Florida in Lehigh. It’s rain and there are local people all worried to pieces here. Idk. Maybe it is just me and my tropical mess induced migraine that just doesn’t understand or care at the moment. I need Alberto to move away before my head explodes.

[MetroMike]

As of late Saturday evening the rain coverage has dramatically decreased across most of south Florida.
Would not be surprised to see the Tropical Storm warnings dropped in west central areas tomorrow.
Anyone should not get upset about impacts in Florida. We get worse summertime storms.