Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

The good news with this incoming nor'easter beginning later this evening is that it will not be a prolonged event. The latest model guidance shows the strong mid/upper level shortwave axis, which will pivot across the Northeast Florida area, will move away from the coast by Thursday morning. Hopefully, this will keep any heavy rainfall potential and other potential coastal concerns at a minimum this week. We will see very strong winds at the coast on Wednesday with the tight pressure gradient in place, with gusts of 40-50 mph there likely.

[psyclone]

What an exceptional stretch of weather we've had lately. the low off the east coast will drag more cool and dry air down the peninsula and maintain pleasant temps and breezy conditions. Spring is my favorite season here and we are cashing in big time

[HurricaneBelle]

What an exceptional stretch of weather we've had lately. the low off the east coast will drag more cool and dry air down the peninsula and maintain pleasant temps and breezy conditions. Spring is my favorite season here and we are cashing in big time

Amen. My power bill dropped $100 this month as neither the heat nor the A/C were used much.

[jaxfladude]

What an exceptional stretch of weather we've had lately. the low off the east coast will drag more cool and dry air down the peninsula and maintain pleasant temps and breezy conditions. Spring is my favorite season here and we are cashing in big time

Amen. My power bill dropped $100 this month as neither the heat nor the A/C were used much.

Bill down too for my house

[psyclone]

I echo the above sentiments. It has been 9 shades of awesome. Last week my thermostat read 66 degrees in the morning. Downright coolish for my thin blood... I appreciated my hot coffee and oatmeal. And we've got more on the way. Make it count since we know a blanket of heat and humidity (and high power bills) is sneaking up on us..

[Patrick99]

Yesterday we had another quasi-rainy season pattern, with sunshine most of the day followed by some convective activity. This time, the west coast seabreeze was dominant.....I could easily see when and where the east coast seabreeze started to set up, it wasn't too far away from the coast. Radar showed a bit of rain just north of me. Radar showed some good looking storms in southern Palm Beach/north Broward, too.

[HurricaneBelle]

Wow! There was so much hail in Trenton (30M W of Gainesville) from the overnight storms that it had to be plowed.

 https://twitter.com/GrantWTSP/status/1110874497215799296

[northjaxpro]

There have been reports of wind gusts over 40 mph both at Mayport Naval Air Base and at the Jacksonville Beach Pier this past hour. I recorded a gust to 38 mph here at my home this past hour as well.


The strong mid/upper trough rapidly pushed through the Northeast Florida area the past 12 hours. Low pressure area currently in the NW Bahamas region. The tight northeast pressure wind gradient will continue up until this evening, then slacken as the Low pulls farther away out in the Atlantic.

[arekkusu]

Late, but wind advisories have been in effect since two days ago for all of the coastal counties and two that border coastal counties (Clay and Putnam).

As I've said before on this thread, I live in northeastern Clay County and commute to Gainesville 3 times a week. I take US-17 from my home to State Road 16 before I turn onto US-301 in Bradford County, and during the Clay County leg of the commute, I have to go through central/west-central Clay County (Camp Blanding/Penney Farms). I can safely say that the winds in those areas weren't as bad as those near my house, at least this morning.

Elsewhere in FL, Brevard County is under severe thunderstorm warning for a storm producing damaging winds and large hail, and the adjacent nearshore waters are under special marine warning (as I write this at 11:10 EST) for a storm that is "capable of producing waterspouts". I have no idea what's going on over there, but I didn't think any parts of the state were at risk of severe weather today, so I'm kind of surprised.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Arekkuso, I knew the advisories were posted back on Monday evening. I was just posting the current reports out along the coast with the winds.

BTW, a very cold pocket of air aloft with the strong upper level shortwave moving across the region. This is the chief cause of the threat of severe storms across Brevard County currently. This is also the reason of that tremendous hail storm that happened in Trenton last night, which was mentioned above in a post as well on this page. We also have wind shear in the vicinity of Brevard County currently with the proximity of the Low Pressure area near the Space Coast and near the NW Bahamas region.

[StormingB81]

I'm in Rockledge. Had golf ball size hail...was crazy

[arekkusu]

Oh, no, northjaxpro, I get you. I was just posting that because I wasn't sure if anyone else had before and I hadn't really read many of the other posts.

I guess that other than the wind, I am relatively lucky in regards to this event. Storming881, I don't remember the last time I've had to deal with ANY hail other than maybe pea size, let alone golf ball size hail. But, hey, at least we don't have to deal with the softball/baseball size horrors that the plains states have to deal with.

I think that the next time we're at risk of any rain/thunderstorms up here is late Monday/early Tuesday, from what I've read. Any insight is appreciated.

[northjaxpro]

It's all good Arekkuso! Yeah, it looks like the next shortwave system looks to potentially impact our area beginning on Monday. This could be another potential good rainmaker for the region.

This month overall has been a refreshingly cool month! We have had onshore flow, including now, for most of the month, keeping temps considerably below climo. Any day we hold off temps of near 85 degrees or above are joyous ones for me! Mother Nature certainly owed us this much after that ridiculously warm February. It looks like we will start April in a similar fashion!

[TheStormExpert]

This “Sou’easter” has been crazy!

[Patrick99]

We are currently seeing tropical storm-ish rain bands come through, accompanied by some 30mph gusts........pretty fun weather for late March, I'd say.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm in Rockledge. Had golf ball size hail...was crazy

That’s quite a hail storm, especially for Florida!

Meanwhile while you guys up along the Space Coast were experiencing the unexpected severe weather we were dealing with pleasant conditions, quite the opposite.

[northjaxpro]

Well, it looks like another significant shortwave disturbance and a cold front will bring wet and cool weather to North and Northeast Florida beginning Sunday night, and more cooler weather lasting into mid-week! Latest 18Z GFS showing the front stalling out across North Central Florida during the day Monday. GFS showing widespread overrunning rain is being shown to happen on Monday across the region. Low pressure will form along the stalled frontal boundary off the GA/SC coast by Tuesday morning. This would bring northeast winds back to the area Monday night into Tuesday.


GFS showing lows in the 40s on both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings and highs only in the upper 50s for Jax on Tuesday with the onshore flow and rain. These values would be very chilly for the first week in April if the 18Z GFS is right.

[arekkusu]

Well, it looks like we're in the full swing of things in terms of spring.

In addition to the above impending shortwave disturbance later on today, another cold front is expected to hit us on Friday, I believe.

According to the latest area forecast discussion, there might be enough instability and wind shear to warrant at least a little bit of hail and some strong winds with the activity later today. Curious to see how this plays out.

The majority of central/south Florida is also under marginal risk of severe weather on Tuesday, but this doesn't include anywhere covered by NWS Jacksonville (it's hard to tell, but it looks like St. Johns, Flagler, Putnam, and Marion are under general t-storm risk, as well as southeastern Clay County and southeastern Alachua County).

[northjaxpro]

The cold front is right on schedule. Currently, the front extends from just west of Tallahassee, then northeast through South Georgia, and farther to the SC upstate region. Showers and storms are beginning to perculate as daytime heating is ramping up. There is ample instability as well to cause a few strong storms later this afternoon as the front moves into the Northeast Florida area. Some storms may produce some hail. Temps at this hour in the western panhandle region are only in the lower 50s with rain behind the front.


GFS had a very good handle on the forecast with this incoming shortwave since last week, with widespread rain and much cooler temps on the way beginning tonight. A 1034 mb Polar High currently over the Central Plains is filtering in some rather chilly air down into portions of the Eastern U.S. The cold front will stall out across North Florida on early tomorrow morning. The warm, and moist southwest flow from the GOM will override the stalled front into the shallow cool air, which will subsequently cause a widespread rain event . It will be a very wet, raw and chilly day tomorrow with onshore flow as temps will remain only in the mid-upper 50s across the Jax metro area. The upper shortwave axis will move through the region by Tuesday afternoon, which should bring the rain to an end. Skies should be clearing by Tuesday evening, with lows in the mid-upper 40s here by Wednesday morning. I will gladly take this in the first few days of April, before the real heat and humidity sets in for good.

[arekkusu]

A strong thunderstorm passed just north of where I live yesterday through extreme north Clay County and parts of Duval County. I could hear thunder from my house. It wasn't severe enough to warrant any sort of warning, but a significant weather advisory was issued for that storm.

Right now, I am in Gainesville, and I gotta say that it's kinda miserable, but that might just be because I have to walk all the way across campus to get between classes.