Florida Weather

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psyclone
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Re: Florida Weather

#12521 Postby psyclone » Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:58 pm

WPC 7 Day QPF shows heavy rain in the panhandle with lower amounts to the east and south. South Florida...which is most in need is progged to get the least. it's getting dry and fire concerns are going to escalate quickly with the added fuel loads from Irma and freezes. One thing this winter screwed us on was any severe wx/ squall line activity. we got shut out completely which is unusual.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12522 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:27 pm

Not too unusual down here during a La Nina winter. Probably gonna be bad brush fire season this spring. :eek:
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Re: Florida Weather

#12523 Postby psyclone » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:19 pm

psyclone wrote:March is still prime time for big noreasters in the mid atlantic and northeast and those are very efficient at slamming cold air south so we are still fair game for meaningful cool shots. I recall an april 15 tax day that was sunny and about 65...felt like a typical mid winter day so even april is not exempt from cool invasions. Hopefully we can cash in on some mild days and cool nights before we enter the sauna zone for the duration.


This is reference to noreasters is verifiying nicely. After getting May type weather in February we're now getting February type weather in March. As another noreaster brews for the mid atlantic and new england our extended outlooks continue to lean on the cool side of normal.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12524 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:22 pm

:uarrow: Yes indeed psyclone. This is all associated with the pattern flip we finally are getting here in March. and which we discussed in the past weeks. The -NAO is helping with that of course. There will be another potential nor'easter developing along the Mid-Atlantic coast about a week from now, with the 18Z GFS late this afternoon is showing, beginning March 12.

So, should that come to fruition, the potential will be of three consecutive nor'easters impacting the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region within 10 days.

Yeah, cool weather will continue through at least the next 10 days into mid-March for the Deep South and the North and Central Florida peninsula. There will be chances of rain late tomorrow night into Wednesday across North Florida ahead of the next shortwave the next 36 hours or so.

The possibility is still there to see potential frost or even a light freeze on Friday morning across interior colder locations across North Florida. A cool, High Pressure ridge axis settles over the region to promote ideal radiational cooling by that time.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12525 Postby NDG » Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:55 am

Surprisingly I had some nice showers pass through my area of town last night, I thought it was going to evaporate like it usually does.
Not much to dent the dry wx but at least it washed off some of the pollen.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12526 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:02 am

A nice chill in the air this morning! I measured 37.3 degrees for the morning low temperature, with a very light northwest wind.

This is setting the stage for a chilly night here and across North Florida as High Pressure moves right over the area. Ideal radiational cooling conditions expected tomorrow morning as temps drop well down into 30s. We could see areas dip to the freezing mark in our normally colder interior locations. Also, may see frost as well.

The next shortwave develops over the Southern Plains late Saturday and then moves into the Tennessee Valley region Sunday morning and then develops just off the Mid-Atlantic region by Sunday afternoon and evening. This will set up another nor'easter to develop up into the Northeast U.S. and into New England for early next week.

This shortwave looks rather potent on this morning's 6Z GFS run. This will hopefully bring to the peninsula some much needed rain Sunday into early Monday. We desperately need it! This will be a very quick round of rain, and then pushes out of the region as dry and cool air quickly moves back into the region.

An upper level trough becomes firmly established across the Eastern ÇONUS all next week, with upper level northwesterly flow funneling cool and dry weather into our area. I would not be surprised to see a possible light freeze over portions of North Florida by middle of next week.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12527 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:49 am

It did reach the freezing mark this morning, 32.1 degrees, the first freeze here at my home since January 31, almost 6 weeks ago. This puts the total for the season at 13 freezes recorded since December 1, 2017. The NWS Jax office also reported 32 degrees earlier this morning as well. Most of North Florida and Southeast Georgia did see temps at or even slightly below freezing, except along the immediate coast and along the Saint Johns River in Jax.


One more significant cool spell coming by middle of next week. I mentioned yesterday we could be looking at another potential freeze here across North Florida, similar to what occured this morning.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12528 Postby gatorcane » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:07 pm

12Z ECMWF with the 850MB 0C line sweeping Central Florida between hours 120 and 144. As expected the cold pattern looks to have returned after a break in February:

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Re: Florida Weather

#12529 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:57 am

Under a “Marginal” risk for Severe Weather today here in South Florida but with the ways things are looking and the fact that the front should move through mid-late afternoon I doubt we will see much of anything. Probably be lucky to pickup any rainfall. These La Niña years pretty much kill any chances of having a decent squall line move through ahead of a cold front.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12530 Postby psyclone » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:01 am

This is going to be an impressive but likely final shot of cool air for the season. extended outlooks have returned to above normal which takes us close to April. Nice to have cool shelf waters to provide cooling seabreezes as the heat eventually settles in so the March chill has been a plus for sure.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12531 Postby chaser1 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:44 pm

psyclone wrote:This is going to be an impressive but likely final shot of cool air for the season. extended outlooks have returned to above normal which takes us close to April. Nice to have cool shelf waters to provide cooling seabreezes as the heat eventually settles in so the March chill has been a plus for sure.


I don't know, seems as if the GFS has been advertising consecutive runs indicating another nice E. Conus dip in the 500mb flow. Looks like another weak front will approach N. Florida Sunday but without any upper level support. Then Tuesday the 500mb flow drops another Canadian trough southward into the S. Plains that rapidly drops Southeastward through Wednesday. That looks to help develop another Nor'Easter near D.C. and that large low will drive the prior stalled front rapidly southward and plow through the entire state. This'll bring cooler weather to North and Central Fla by Tuesday a.m. (and perhaps a setup for some dense early morning fog for S. Fla.?), and then strong high pressure looks to drop south from the Dakotas on Tuesday and advecting soutward much cooler air again Statewide Tuesday and Wednesday nights. By Thursday/Thursday night the surface flow rapidly swings from NNE to East, to Southeast by Saturday. Even still, our upper flow will remain out of the Northwest allowing for a couple more pleasant mild to cool evenings throughout most inland and W. Coast Florida. Heck, by this time the calendar is already around March 24th?! So bizarre how February had us all turning on the A/C and already cursing the upcoming Summer heat while nearly all of March changed to cool again, for nearly the entire month!
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Re: Florida Weather

#12532 Postby psyclone » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:36 pm

The pairing of below normal temps and a strong sun is outstanding. I'm a fan of warm weather but always welcome late season cool snaps. we know what's coming in a couple of months.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12533 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:53 pm

All I can say chaser is bring it on. I'll take all the cool weather before the oven is turned on. :eek:
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Re: Florida Weather

#12534 Postby CDO62 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:11 pm

I guess we all have different likes as far as what our perfect weather is. I can't believe I've been out covering plants in mid March. :eek: My forecast here North of Tampa is for a low of 34 degrees with frost tonight. :cold: Bring on the heat!! :sun:

After a nice weekend warm up, it looks like next weeks front will only knocks temps down a few degrees with no frost threat to Central FL. Thankful this pattern didn't set up in February.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12535 Postby chaser1 » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:22 am

CDO62 wrote:I guess we all have different likes as far as what our perfect weather is. I can't believe I've been out covering plants in mid March. :eek: My forecast here North of Tampa is for a low of 34 degrees with frost tonight. :cold: Bring on the heat!! :sun:

After a nice weekend warm up, it looks like next weeks front will only knocks temps down a few degrees with no frost threat to Central FL. Thankful this pattern didn't set up in February.


Yeah, you're so right about everyone's differing perception about "perfect weather". Seems that some of us like it cold while others quite content with warm. I'll agree that any additional frost would be unwelcome... if not rather bizarre for this late in the season. So, 34F tonight?? Ouch! I'm guessing you're in the Brooksville/Spring Hill area. Jeeesh, it does typically get colder there! Well, timing on next weeks front vacilates between different model runs but Wed/Thurs night's are presently appearing to be cold. More 30's temps for some areas? Yeah, I think so. Though that is not at all being advertised thus far. Just too early.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12536 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:29 am

This morning it bottomed out at 30.3 degrees at my weather station, the coldest morning since January 18. A solid freeze area wide this morning as many spots dropped down into the upper 20s over North Florida. Also, widespread frost here at my house and I am sure that is the case all over the region.

Mild weather returns this weekend and fingers crossed, hopefully I have seen the last freeze here of this season. As you all know, as I have mentioned previously, once we get past mid-March here in North Florida, I can finally start working on my spring garden!!
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Re: Florida Weather

#12537 Postby chaser1 » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:44 pm

northjaxpro wrote:This morning it bottomed out at 30.3 degrees at my weather station, the coldest morning since January 18. A solid freeze area wide this morning as many spots dropped down into the upper 20s over North Florida. Also, widespread frost here at my house and I am sure that is the case all over the region.

Mild weather returns this weekend and fingers crossed, hopefully I have seen the last freeze here of this season. I can finally start working on my spring garden!!


I highly recommend that you put off any new planting until after 3/23
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Re: Florida Weather

#12538 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:16 pm

:uarrow: Well, I have been super busy, and I have not checked into the10 day extended too much. I did see another potential nor'easter may be in store for New England again back on Tuesday for this time next week. I wad hoping the upper trough and 500 mb heights would not dig as far south next week as it has the past couple of weeks to bring us a couple of freezes this month here, including this morning. The -NAO is still maintaining itself currently, so I should have known better to think the 500 mb pattern would not change significantly over the next week to 10 days. I am ready to start planting, but you may be right chaser1. I am just getting impatient about this. It is not likely, but we have had a freeze into early April here. So, usually in this area,my rule of thumb is once we get past mid-March each season, I can pretty much feel confident the odds receiving another freeze dramtically decreases . It is still possible we could get another frost at least before we end this month. I will probably just wait until the end of the month or the first of week of April, which I usually end of doing most years.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12539 Postby NDG » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:50 am

A very impressive radiational cooling this morning across central interior FL and even into parts of interior southern FL with many any dipping down into the 30s with parts of the Nature coast having another sub-freezing morning.
Last night when I went to bed around 11 PM temps where were still in the 50s thinking that upper 40s where going to be the lowest temps this morning but when I saw that the dewpoints were still in the 20s in many areas with winds decoupling as they usually do I knew that temps were going to be lower than forecasted.
We got lucky that the pattern changed happened this month instead of last month, many areas across central FL would had been subfreezing this morning.

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Re: Florida Weather

#12540 Postby psyclone » Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:30 pm

getting back to 70 feels wonderful. more dry, cool and windy weather is on the docket next week. Besides another dose of below normal temps the big headline is likely to be persistent high fire danger. what a crazy winter this turned out to be.
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