Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/kmillerweather/status/1309502446260158465

[FlaWeatherDude]

Yeah looks like late next week there will be a dewpoint gradient between central and south Florida!

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah looks like late next week there will be a dewpoint gradient between central and south Florida!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei3AmbtWkAAijRs?format=jpg&name=large

Once again you’re showing a model run that’s a day old, but the consensus is the front stalls/washes out just north of South Florida, meaning folks down here will be in a mucky/humid airmass.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Yeah looks like late next week there will be a dewpoint gradient between central and south Florida!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei3AmbtWkAAijRs?format=jpg&name=large

Once again you’re showing a model run that’s a day old, but the consensus is the front stalls/washes out just north of South Florida, meaning folks down here will be in a mucky/humid airmass.

That model I posted above agrees with you. except is stalls it across Miami.

Anyhow here's today's WCP 3-7 day outlook.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah looks like late next week there will be a dewpoint gradient between central and south Florida!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei3AmbtWkAAijRs?format=jpg&name=large

Once again you’re showing a model run that’s a day old, but the consensus is the front stalls/washes out just north of South Florida, meaning folks down here will be in a mucky/humid airmass.

That model I posted above agrees with you. except is stalls it across Miami.

Anyhow here's today's WCP 3-7 day outlook.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei3AmbuXYAEAPep?format=jpg&name=large

Well it does manage to bring dew points in the 50’s to South Florida for a day before the wind swings in off the Atlantic. Being the NAO is dead neutral and the PNA is greatly positive you’d expect at least some frontal passage.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Once again you’re showing a model run that’s a day old, but the consensus is the front stalls/washes out just north of South Florida, meaning folks down here will be in a mucky/humid airmass.

That model I posted above agrees with you. except is stalls it across Miami.

Anyhow here's today's WCP 3-7 day outlook.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei3AmbuXYAEAPep?format=jpg&name=large

Well it does manage to bring dew points in the 50’s to South Florida for a day before the wind swings in off the Atlantic. Being the NAO is dead neutral and the PNA is greatly positive you’d expect at least some frontal passage.

I agree. Though Yesterday's WPC 3-7 day outlook kept the front over Orlando. So todays outlook is way better. Hopefully the trend continues southwards.

[gatorcane]

Looks like front this week pushes through South Florida with one day of below 70F dewpoints.

To my Central and North Florida peeps, looks delightful for you with a string of low dewpoint, fall weather days. Widespread lows in the 60s for Central Florida.

[psyclone]

I got low 60's in my nws forecast. We usually don't see that until late October. Fall refreshment is early for a change. What a difference compared to the extended summer of the past 2 years. Flooding the field with cool, dry air could drop kick hurricane season earlier than usual this year too. The wet, cloudy weather of september has already trashed out previously insanely warm shelf waters so we are tilting positive in that respect too..at least locally.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Sometime by the first week of Oct. there's a chance something(Gamma?) could form along the frontal boundary in the NW Carr. and move northwards. Where it heads(just west of us, through us, or to our east) is anyone's guess.

[chaser1]

I got low 60's in my nws forecast. We usually don't see that until late October. Fall refreshment is early for a change. What a difference compared to the extended summer of the past 2 years. Flooding the field with cool, dry air could drop kick hurricane season earlier than usual this year too. The wet, cloudy weather of september has already trashed out previously insanely warm shelf waters so we are tilting positive in that respect too..at least locally.

I'm just gob-smacked over how nice Central and North Florida is going to feel for several days this week?! Can't believe that a "real" cold front will actually bring a couple cool nights and pleasant mild days. Might actually plan to get a bit of outdoor year work in LOL. Lurking to our south however, will likely be some early brewing witchcraft from the Caribbean. Will have to keep an eye on that situation. Euro is still not at all on board but other models are pinging toward genesis.

[TheStormExpert]

Sometime by the first week of Oct. there's a chance something(Gamma?) could form along the frontal boundary in the NW Carr. and move northwards. Where it heads(just west of us, through us, or to our east) is anyone's guess.

I wouldn’t get too worried about anything coming out of the Western Caribbean as wind shear will be ripping across the Gulf thanks to the trough. A sheared lopsided mess is the most likely bet at this moment.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Sometime by the first week of Oct. there's a chance something(Gamma?) could form along the frontal boundary in the NW Carr. and move northwards. Where it heads(just west of us, through us, or to our east) is anyone's guess.

I wouldn’t get too worried about anything coming out of the Western Caribbean as wind shear will be ripping across the Gulf thanks to the trough. A sheared lopsided mess is the most likely bet at this moment.

By Wednesday the front should clear the whole state. Giving Central Florida a 3 day spree of highs around 80/lows around 60(even some 50's) and dewpoints in the 40's/50's. South Florida will at least get a day or two of sub 60 degree dewpoints. But by Sunday/Monday it looks like whatever could form in the NW Caribbean(tropical storm/Hurricane Gamma?) creeps northwards ahead of another trough. Like midweeks trough, I believe models are underestimating its strength(originally this front was supposed to stall out over Orlando but now the most recent models have it stalling across Cuba/the NW Caribbean).

[TheStormExpert]

Sometime by the first week of Oct. there's a chance something(Gamma?) could form along the frontal boundary in the NW Carr. and move northwards. Where it heads(just west of us, through us, or to our east) is anyone's guess.

I wouldn’t get too worried about anything coming out of the Western Caribbean as wind shear will be ripping across the Gulf thanks to the trough. A sheared lopsided mess is the most likely bet at this moment.

By Wednesday the front should clear the whole state. Giving Central Florida a 3 day spree of highs around 80/lows around 60(even some 50's) and dewpoints in the 40's/50's. South Florida will at least get a day or two of sub 60 degree dewpoints. But by Sunday/Monday it looks like whatever could form in the NW Caribbean(tropical storm/Hurricane Gamma?) creeps northwards ahead of another trough. Like midweeks trough, I believe models are underestimating its strength(originally this front was supposed to stall out over Orlando but now the most recent models have it stalling across Cuba/the NW Caribbean).

Today's 18z GFS has the front stalling somewhere between Orlando and Lake Okeechobee with South Florida remaining in the soupy 70º+ dew points.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well now it has the front stalling around the upper keys. I could feel a slight cool down for a day. Sounds like rainy days ahead down here in broward. As per the Miami NWS:
This
will allow for a cold front to work down the Florida Peninsula
today and through South Florida on Wednesday before stalling out
over the Northern Florida Keys Wednesday night.

[FlaWeatherDude]

I wouldn’t get too worried about anything coming out of the Western Caribbean as wind shear will be ripping across the Gulf thanks to the trough. A sheared lopsided mess is the most likely bet at this moment.

By Wednesday the front should clear the whole state. Giving Central Florida a 3 day spree of highs around 80/lows around 60(even some 50's) and dewpoints in the 40's/50's. South Florida will at least get a day or two of sub 60 degree dewpoints. But by Sunday/Monday it looks like whatever could form in the NW Caribbean(tropical storm/Hurricane Gamma?) creeps northwards ahead of another trough. Like midweeks trough, I believe models are underestimating its strength(originally this front was supposed to stall out over Orlando but now the most recent models have it stalling across Cuba/the NW Caribbean).

Today's 18z GFS has the front stalling somewhere between Orlando and Lake Okeechobee with South Florida remaining in the soupy 70º+ dew points.

Impossible with this deep trough.

[TheStormExpert]

By Wednesday the front should clear the whole state. Giving Central Florida a 3 day spree of highs around 80/lows around 60(even some 50's) and dewpoints in the 40's/50's. South Florida will at least get a day or two of sub 60 degree dewpoints. But by Sunday/Monday it looks like whatever could form in the NW Caribbean(tropical storm/Hurricane Gamma?) creeps northwards ahead of another trough. Like midweeks trough, I believe models are underestimating its strength(originally this front was supposed to stall out over Orlando but now the most recent models have it stalling across Cuba/the NW Caribbean).

Today's 18z GFS has the front stalling somewhere between Orlando and Lake Okeechobee with South Florida remaining in the soupy 70º+ dew points.

Impossible with this deep trough.

I’d think the same considering the NAO is negative, but it is only early-October and troughs like this are more uncommon this time of year.

[TampaFl]

Mmmmm From NWS Tampa:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

.UPDATE...
Areas of low clouds and fog over the interior and Nature Coast
early this morning will lift and dissipate over the next few hours
with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected for the rest of the
day. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to
develop over the eastern gulf this morning and move onshore mainly
affecting the Nature Coast. Then the south to southwest flow out
ahead of the cool front will favor the interior and eastern half
of the Florida peninsula for the highest rain chances this
afternoon, but expect more convection along and ahead of boundary
to move onshore late this afternoon and evening and spread
southeast overnight. Some cooler drier will filter into the
northern half of the region late tonight and everywhere during
Wednesday, but the upper level support will have moved out so
front will slow down and actually begin to drift back north as a
warm front during Thursday. Overall the current forecast looks ok
at this time.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Better enjoy our first taste of Fall before potential Gamma pays Florida a visit this weekend.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Lol. No prediction for gamma hitting florida this weekend. Models like to pop storms this time of year cause of the gyra that exist between s.america and the carribean. Will something form somewhere down the road. Most likly but probably take awhile. The NWS is having a hard time with models for this front. Some the lake. Some the keys. Oh well. Maybe a little cooler for me tomorrow night. Then most likely rain.

[gatorcane]

NWS Tampa raised lows for tomorrow night a few degrees. Now most locations in the mid 60s as opposed to the lower 60s.