Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Sunday should begin a transition to colder weather. Kind of a wait and see at this point since it is a way out.

[AdamFirst]

Sunday should begin a transition to colder weather. Kind of a wait and see at this point since it is a way out.

It's a given the cold is on the way, the only question is how cold will it get.

[NotSparta]

GEFS trended down on NAO index today

[NDG]

Latest 12z Euro now has upper 20s all the way down to I-4 for Monday Morning, with highs only in the 40s all across the I-4 corridor, that's a big change.

[psyclone]

That would definitely leave a mark. I was amazed at how much damage last year's fairly modest advection freeze delivered. It was ugly.

[northjaxpro]

Well now, there is our first significant confirmation /movement toward the much anticipated - NAO by the GEFS. I expect this to continue...

Also, we had a significant temperature bust here in the Jax area today. The initial forecast was for max temps to
reach the low 60s. Current temp 53.6. degrees. almost a 10 degree miss.

We had a very good cold advection regime today, but I think the fresh new snowpack to our north from this past weekend played a big role with the temps busting today. Fresh snowpacks really keeps the air mass from moderating. It never fails.

Arctic blast #1 on the way for Next Monday. Right now, mid 20s is the early forecast for interior North Florida next Monday night/Tuesday morning. This is something that will be closely monitored as this week progresses. But, no question, significant freeze / potential hard freeze here and potential freeze into the Central Florida peninsula next week.

[psyclone]

My current NWS forecast for Monday shows a high of 55 under sunny skies and breezy conditions...which would imply ongoing CAA.

[northjaxpro]

My current NWS forecast for Monday shows a high of 55 under sunny skies and breezy conditions...which would imply ongoing CAA.

Current guidance projections are mid 40s for max temps here in Jax for next Monday. This could go possibly a bit colder....

Definitely the coldest air so far coming our way nnext week.

[northjaxpro]

Oh yeah, by the way, the 18Z GFS in advertising Arctic Blast #2 during 1/23-1/25. 1055 mb Arctic High dropping south. This if it indeed verifies, will be potentially record breaking for many, including here across the peninsula.

[AdamFirst]

Oh yeah, by the way, the 18Z GFS in advertising Arctic Blast #2 during 1/23-1/25. 1055 mb Arctic High dropping south. This if it indeed verifies, will be potentially record breaking for many, including here across the peninsula.

That would include what looks to be, in all intents and purposes, a major ice storm event across Alabama and Georgia just to the north. I imagine it wouldn't take much for the possibly of wintry precip across the northern Panhandle

[northjaxpro]

Based on the 18Z GFS run, extreme North peninsula and panhandle will be sitting right along the baroclinic boundary near or along the Gulf Coast. It would be a classic overrunning scenario. A situation with rain along the immediate coast, and sleet and freezing rain just a bit farther inland from the coast deeper into the arctic, but shallow air across South MS, AL and Florida Panhandle.


This is just one run, and there will.be more changes I am certain to this in later runs. Definitely monitoring this potential.

[TheStormExpert]

Of course there’s a saving grace we will probably have some 50’s no big deal..

Yes 50’s for highs is a big deal, btw next Monday TWC is forecasting a high of 58° in WPB. Seriously though, do you really want to be freezing your butt off even if it’s just for a day?

[gatorcane]

The GFS looks warmer than the Euro for the arctic front a week from now. Let’s see if the Euro trends a little warmer because 20sF for the I-4 corridor would do some vegetation damage.

[TheStormExpert]

Here's the 12z Euro for 6am next Monday morning for reference. The freezing line goes almost to Okeechobee, FL.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: Here's the 12z Euro for 6am next Monday morning for reference. The freezing line goes almost to Okeechobee, FL.

https://i.imgur.com/fOVoapo.png

Yep, looking at the models I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday’s low is 25 and the high is between 42 to 45 but am thinking with what the Gfs shows for next Friday and since it’s 11 days out but highs on Friday could be record low highs with record lows like 35 for a high with 15 for a low and this is from central Florida near Orlando but as always this far out for both cold fronts it will change but will it be warmer or do we get the motherload of cold air not seen in a long time

[floridasun78]

gfs show very cold air hitting south fl on mon not seen in years

[NDG]

The good news this morning is that last night's Euro is a little warmer for Central FL Monday morning with only a light freeze along the I-4 corridor but upper 30s all the way down to the western suburbs of Ft Lauderdale.
No freeze for central FL Tuesday morning.

[TheStormExpert]

Overnight 00z Euro run has trended slightly warmer for next Monday morning, more in line with the recent 06z run of the GFS for the same timeframe.

[SFLcane]

Inland locations in the 40's closer to the coast upper 40's low 50's. No biggie

[boca]

All the hype and no bite and I’m used to it so no big deal.