Florida Weather

[FlaWeatherDude]

From Tamps NWS...

"The cold front will quickly move into the area late in the
evening tomorrow, and will pass south of Lee county likely by
midnight. Some trailing showers may linger after the front passes
by. However, much drier air will promptly work its way into the
region courteous of the breezy north to northwest winds.
Wednesday afternoon, available moisture in the atmosphere will be
down to <0.5 inches north of I-4 with a sharp gradient of greater
than 1.75 inches across Southwest Florida. So while it will feel
more pleasant across SWFL on Wed, relatively speaking, it will
take awhile for lower dewpoints to be advected that far south.
Meanwhile north of I-4 may struggle to break 80 degrees for their
high.

Do yourself a favor and make some outdoor plans mid-week and into
the weekend as we will receive our first stretch of Florida Fall.
Our lowest temps will be Thursday morning, ranging from mid 50s
to mid 60s. While our highs will start to moderate back up into
the low to mid 80s, a reinforcing cold front will push through the
area Friday. This will drive down dew points and temperatures
once again. Unfortunately, this second front may be countered by
the disturbance that is likely to be moving out into the Gulf this
weekend. If this system forms, it will be to our southwest
meaning he cyclonic southeasterly flow will drive moisture back
across South FL and perhaps into parts of Central Florida. If this
occurs (and it is still a big if), the nice weather may be short
lived for some of us. However, if you live north of I-4 you have a
better bet to enjoy the extended pleasantness".

[FlaWeatherDude]

"A cold front that means business is on its way to the Florida peninsula, giving areas north of Lake Okeechobee a chance to sample some crisp, fall air. Wednesday night/ Thursday morning lows may plunge as low as the mid-50s in interior areas of East-Central Florida, according to the National Weather Service.

The front is forecast to stall over South Florida, then push back to the north toward the end of the week, ushering in a batch of wet, tropical air from the south and setting up a potentially major rain event in some parts of the southern half of the Florida peninsula.

By the time this week’s cold front becomes a warm front and begins lifting north, forecasters will likely be focused once again on the tropics".

[toad strangler]

A cold front that means business is on its way to the Florida peninsula, giving areas north of Lake Okeechobee a chance to sample some crisp, fall air. Wednesday night/ Thursday morning lows may plunge as low as the mid-50s in interior areas of East-Central Florida, according to the National Weather Service.

The front is forecast to stall over South Florida, then push back to the north toward the end of the week, ushering in a batch of wet, tropical air from the south and setting up a potentially major rain event in some parts of the southern half of the Florida peninsula.

By the time this week’s cold front becomes a warm front and begins lifting north, forecasters will likely be focused once again on the tropics.

HELL YEAH bring on the rain! Tropical or whatever

[FlaWeatherDude]

Dewpoints across the Orlando and Tampa metros are very comfortably well below 60. We haven't featured a Sep. September day with dews that low here since 2012. It's been a long time!

[gatorcane]

Dewpoints across the Orlando and Tampa metros are very comfortably well below 60. We haven't featured a Sep. September day with dews that low here since 2012. It's been a long time!

The front is oh so close to passing through South Florida but no cigar. Go across Alligator Alley into SW Florida and it feels a lot more comfortable than along the SE coast. We have an afternoon storm about ready to come through with high dew points still

[northjaxpro]

It felt glorious earlier this morning. It dropped to 57 degrees this morning here at the ponderosa and it is only in the mid-upoer 70s with virtually no humidity. The best day we have had since last April.

It is forecast to drop to near 50 degrees in the morning here and some interior locales in the Suwanee River Valley and just north of me in Southeast Georgia, could see upper 40s in the morning!

I am loving this for the next couple of days before the moisture and humidity creeps back into the area during the upcoming weekend.

[toad strangler]

Dewpoints across the Orlando and Tampa metros are very comfortably well below 60. We haven't featured a Sep. September day with dews that low here since 2012. It's been a long time!

The front is oh so close to passing through South Florida but no cigar. Go across Alligator Alley into SW Florida and it feels a lot more comfortable than along the SE coast. We have an afternoon storm about ready to come through with high dew points still

I'm literally right on the edge. Cloudy and dreary with light rain. I felt a cool breeze out ot the NW for about an hour earlier this morning. It's gone. Front pretty much pooped out right over me in Saint Lucie West.

[toad strangler]

For the weekend into next week on the Treasure Coast .... courtesy of NWS MLB

Saturday-Tuesday...Models continue to be in surprisingly good
agreement for this upcoming weekend showing a warm front lifting
north through our area on Saturday. This brings deep tropical
moisture and high rain chances areawide that last into early next
week. Model soundings indicate 2.10-2.20" PWATs and there is the
possibility of an inverted coastal trough developing. The threat for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding continues, especially for the
coastal counties.

[gatorcane]

Dewpoints across the Orlando and Tampa metros are very comfortably well below 60. We haven't featured a Sep. September day with dews that low here since 2012. It's been a long time!

The front is oh so close to passing through South Florida but no cigar. Go across Alligator Alley into SW Florida and it feels a lot more comfortable than along the SE coast. We have an afternoon storm about ready to come through with high dew points still

I'm literally right on the edge. Cloudy and dreary with light rain. I felt a cool breeze out ot the NW for about an hour earlier this morning. It's gone. Front pretty much pooped out right over me in Saint Lucie West.

https://i.ibb.co/pjq98pt/dewp-sfc.gif

Quite a gradient. At least you felt the cool front for an hour.

[TheStormExpert]

Currently under a Flash Flood Warning up here in NE Palm Beach County. It’s been raining NON-STOP since last evening!

Flash Flood Warning
FLC099-010900-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-201001T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
329 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

The National Weather Service in Miami has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 500 AM EDT.

* At 329 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated nearly stationary
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
3 and 4 inches of rain have fallen from these nearly stationary
thunderstorms since midnight. Flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens, Riviera Beach, Palm
Beach, Tequesta, Juno Beach, Royal Palm Beach, North Palm Beach,
Lake Park, Haverhill, Juno Ridge, Port Of Palm Beach, Schall
Circle, Downtown West Palm Beach, Palm Beach International
Airport, Lake Belvedere Estates, Golden Lakes, Royal Palm Estates
and The Acreage.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible with these
nearly stationary thunderstorms during the next couple of hours in
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 2668 8020 2696 8023 2696 8014 2697 8014
2697 8000 2688 7997 2668 7997

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

BAXTER

[toad strangler]

NWS Forecast Discussion for the Treasure Coast is Rain, Rain, Rain, and then some more Rain this weekend into next week.

WOW

[northjaxpro]

It bottomed out at 52.3.degrees here at the ponderosa this morning. It is simply a picture perfect, cool crisp Autumn morning. One more beautiful day on Friday, then onshore flow returns by Sunday and chance of rain late this weekend.

[TheStormExpert]

It bottomed out at 52.3.degrees here at the ponderosa this morning. It is simply a picture perfect, cool crisp Autumn morning. One more beautiful day on Friday, then onshore flow returns by Sunday and chance of rain late this weekend.

I’m jealous!

[TheStormExpert]

NWS Forecast Discussion for the Treasure Coast is Rain, Rain, Rain, and then some more Rain this weekend into next week.

WOW

The Rainy Seasons last hoo-rah, before our dry winter comes thanks to La Niña.

[FlaWeatherDude]

This upcoming -NAO block means business! If so prepare for the models to to adjust to more of a dip in the East!

[northjaxpro]

This upcoming -NAO block means business! If so prepare for the models to to adjust to more of a dip in the East!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjRA44MXcAAIZzl?format=png&name=small

Yes , nice Greenland Blocking pattern shown..Well, if that sets up and continies, we may be in for quite a few real good cool surges down across the Eastern CONUS in the next couple of weeks.

[toad strangler]

I'm well over 6 inches .... standing water on the roads and in parking lots in many places during my daily PSL West to Stuart route. A bit of a break tomorrow (Friday) but then right back in the water going forward. High chances for epic all time rainfall totals on the Treasure Coast when all is said and done.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
347 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Flood Watch Remains in Effect for Coastal Martin and St Lucie
Counties Through Friday Afternoon...

Current-Tonight...Proximity to the stalled front, deep moisture,
coastal convergence, diffluence aloft continuing to allow shallow,
efficient precip producing cells to develop near the coast and push
onshore with slow movement until they rain themselves out. While the
main storm steering flow is forecast slowly out of the southwest,
the low-level flow is dominating cell movement as many cells are
propagating out of the east and northeast. High coverage of
precipitation, includes a tight shower/storm gradient across St.
Lucie and Martin counties compared with areas northward. To a lesser
extent there may be some stray shower activity into portions of
Okeechobee, southeast Osceola, Indian River and southern Brevard
counties. But as mentioned the precip/moisture gradient is fairly
tight with mostly dry conditions north/west.

Locally heavy, persistent bands of rain (training) will set up
across St. Lucie and Martin counties, and the adjacent Atlantic into
tonight. Locally, 4-6 inches of rainfall cannot be rule out,
especially nearer the coast. Isolated (embedded) lightning storms
will accompany some rain bands. Residents will need to remain
vigilant in monitoring local weather reports regarding flooding. As
these areas remain very saturated any additional rainfall will
immediately become runoff and not able to soak into the ground. It
will not be advisable to drive in flooded roadways and very risky to
drive in rain-swollen streets at night under these
expected less than favorable conditions.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...

Friday...A dry, reinforcing front pushes into central Florida late
tonight into Friday morning, causing the stalled frontal boundary
across the Treasure Coast to nudge southward. This pins the deeper
moisture mostly in far southern St. Lucie and Martin counties. Even
so, rain chances there are gradually reduced to around 30-50 percent
in the morning, with perhaps some isolated showers as far north as
Vero Beach/Sebastian. The further the new front is able to penetrate
southward, perhaps the lower the precip chances across the Treasure
Coast into late morning/afternoon on Fri bringing some temporarily
drier conditions and relief.

Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be a concern for coastal
St. Lucie/Martin counties early in the period where any additional
heavy rain in a short period will lead to urban flooding. The rest
of the area to the north will be dry on Friday. Afternoon
temperatures climb into the mid 80s areawide. Waking up to cool
temps in the 60s for much of the area Friday morning, except in the
low 70s for the immediate Treasure Coast.

Saturday-Monday...Deep tropical moisture lifts north across central
Florida Saturday through Monday, bringing high rain chances and the
potential for localized flooding. On Saturday rain and storm chances
range from 40-50 percent across the north, to 60-70 percent for the
Treasure Coast, and by Sunday the entire area will see a 70 percent
chance of rain and lightning storms. Afternoon highs in the low 80s
on Saturday climb steadily each afternoon, reaching the mid 80s by
Monday. Cool temps in mid/upper 60s for most on Saturday morning,
give way to muggy nights with overnight lows Sunday/Monday morning
in the low to mid 70s.

Most models agree that by Sunday some kind of tropical system will
be organizing in the far northwest Caribbean Sea or near the Yucatan
in the far southern GOMEX. At the same time, a trough located over
the Southeast U.S. will drag deep tropical moisture northeastward,
associated with the tropical system ,to across the central/northern
Florida peninsula.

This is a favorable setup for a potential Predecessor Rain Event
(PRE) that could bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of central
Florida. North/central FL will be near the right-entrance region of
an upper-level jet streak. Combine this with deep moisture through
much of the lower atmosphere, stout 850mb moisture transport, and a
pseudo-warm front lifting north across central Florida you have the
makings for a potential heavy rain event. Need to watch the forecast
carefully over the next couple of days.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Wet weather pattern continues into the middle of
next week as deep easterlies and abundant tropical moisture result
in high rain chances each day. This is a low confidence forecast
barring what happens in the tropics this weekend and early next
week. Above normal temperatures return as afternoon highs reach the
upper 80s areawide, and morning lows settle in the low/mid 70s.

[toad strangler]

BOOM .... it continues as forecast ... what a stalled front event for the Treasure Coast....


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
911 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Flood Threat Continues for Saint Lucie and Martin Counties
into Saturday...

Greatest rain chances will remain across Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast as isentropic lift leads to a gradual increase in
light/moderate rainfall developing north of frontal boundary
across South Florida, moving N/NE. However, toward the I-4
corridor, Orlando Metro area and northwest, rain chances remain
out of the forecast as drier air in the lower/mid levels holds on
into tonight. Low level flow will become more onshore along the
Treasure Coast after midnight, and deep moisture will remain in
place, which may again allow for redeveloping bands of heavy
showers and isolated storms, mainly along the coast of St. Lucie
and Martin counties. These areas are already saturated with
excessive rainfall totals over the past 48 hours up to 10 to 14
inches in some spots, so any additional heavy rainfall will only
worsen ongoing flooding issues in this area, and a Flood Watch
remains in effect for this area through Saturday afternoon. Skies
will remain mostly cloudy, with overnight lows falling to the mid
to upper 60s across much of the interior and low 70s for the
immediate coast.

[AdamFirst]

It's been wet, to put it lightly. There have been crews putting construction barriers up to mark the edges of roadways that have been going underwater.

[gatorcane]

Looks like we will watch yet another hurricane pass us by in this record-setting year even during the month peninsula Florida is most vulnerable. Folks along the Northern Gulf coast can’t catch a break this year it seems