Florida Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1381
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12701 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sun May 06, 2018 9:08 pm

I beg to differ. Looks like rainy season gonna commence by end of the week. If the models are right. :lol:

The east wind will prevail into the weekend, but guidance
continues to suggest significant moisture will work northward from
the northwest Caribbean starting Thursday. Rain chances have now
be raised to likely for Friday and Saturday, with low end
thunderstorm chances also in the forecast as confidence in fairly
wet pattern increases. Temperatures will be near normal for mid-
may into the weekend. :roll:
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

User avatar
Taffy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:05 am
Location: Lehigh Acres/SW Florida

Re: Florida Weather

#12702 Postby Taffy » Sun May 06, 2018 10:25 pm

I hope you are right and rainy season begins early.
0 likes   
Taffy-SW Florida

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1381
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12703 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon May 07, 2018 6:34 am

Not me being right. I hope the models don't flip flop. They tend to back off the closer it gets to the rain event. Consistency is the key to the model runs. So I guess will see. I think just a better chance of showers. Not a wash out.
Latest model solutions continue to suggest significant moisture
returning to the area from the northwest Caribbean starting late
Thursday, and increasing chances of rain for Friday and Saturday.
There will also be a slight chance for thunderstorm through the
weekend. :roll:
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12704 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 07, 2018 7:40 am

Here's the official start to the Florida rainy season!? With YET another frontal passage expected to bring low humidity and low rain chances the next few days we will likely have to wait until at least late week for a permanent change.

Latest model solutions continue to suggest significant moisture
returning to the area from the NW Caribbean starting late
Thursday
, and increasing chances of rain for Friday and Saturday.
There will also be a slight chance for thunderstorm through the
weekend.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12705 Postby gatorcane » Mon May 07, 2018 8:26 am

Yeah I agree this weekend could be the official start with that moisture surge...
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1381
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12706 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon May 07, 2018 3:17 pm

Then again the weather channel had me at 90% today. No rain on radar. Sure they dropped %. Just didn't check. :lol:
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12707 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 08, 2018 2:13 pm

1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Taffy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:05 am
Location: Lehigh Acres/SW Florida

Re: Florida Weather

#12708 Postby Taffy » Tue May 08, 2018 6:32 pm

Please help me understand what the colors represent.
0 likes   
Taffy-SW Florida

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4665
Age: 63
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Florida Weather

#12709 Postby chaser1 » Wed May 09, 2018 1:42 pm

Taffy wrote:Please help me understand what the colors represent.


Taffy, at least with regard to the above map from Levi's site.... the colors in the map represent higher wind speeds at the 200mb level (upper level of the atmosphere). While the area of white may represent slower (more gentle) upper level winds over the Gulf of Mexico and eventually over Florida, of importance here is the direction of those winds (rather then the strength of them). The counter-clockwise rotation from this upper level low pressure feature tends to act as a pulley by grabbing hold of the rich and moist air extending from the W. Caribbean/Central America Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and eventually yanking it up and northward over W. Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas. Typically during the hurricane season, any time you might see a stream of 200mb "color" over an area of the tropics or sub-tropics this might suggest generally unfavorable upper air conditions for a tropical cyclone to either form or move into. El Nino years often cause these higher than normal upper level winds to stream across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and parts of the Atlantic. During more favorable condition years, these stronger upper level winds tend to remain in the higher northern latitudes with less often occasional dips to the south sometimes occurring over, near, or east of the Eastern CONUS.

Perhaps beyond the scope of your question but of interest in the longer term (days to week beyond) is whether this "weakness" in the upper levels might reflect a bit lower in the atmosphere to around the mid-level steering levels. If so... and depending on if more or less over Florida, just east of Florida, or altogether gone.... could play a steering role in any "potential" early Caribbean tropical system that the GFS model is consistently forecasting to take form in the 228 hour span.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12710 Postby northjaxpro » Wed May 09, 2018 2:50 pm

I will not yet jump on the bandwagon for potential development in the NW Caribbean until Saturday at the earliest.I definitely want to see more models develop that area the next few days. I like to get inside of 10 days before looking at potential tropical cyclone development in that area. We should have a better idea of this potential this upcoming weekend.

We have had a great stretch of weather here since late April. We still have yet to hit 90 degrees officially at the NWS Jax office nor here at my home locale. Seabreezes have been able to push inland by mid afternoon most days and have kept temps from reaching We are getting dry again as we have not had any measurable rain since April 27.

Yeah. It looks as if we will finally get an influx of rich moisture on southerly flow from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. beginning Sunday and into next week. Models are developing a mid/upper level trough over the Eastern GOM and literally it meanders there for days. This will set the stage of opening up Mother Nature's faucet across the peninsula . We should see some beneficial rainfall next week over the region.
1 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#12711 Postby psyclone » Wed May 09, 2018 3:35 pm

WPC 7 day QPF has had a consistent them of heavy rain potential favoring the southeast part of the state...generally south and east of a line from the cape to the keys. this will likely bridge south florida into the rainy season which typically gets going in mid May anyway in that region.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12712 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 09, 2018 7:06 pm

Looks like the rainy season is about to kick off this weekend here in South Florida at least in a BIG way this year! :D

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook :darrow:
Image

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook :darrow:
Image

Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook :darrow:
Image

Days 3-7 Hazards Outlook :darrow:
Image

Global Tropics Hazards Outlook :darrow:
Image
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6306
Age: 59
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12713 Postby boca » Wed May 09, 2018 8:36 pm

psyclone wrote:WPC 7 day QPF has had a consistent them of heavy rain potential favoring the southeast part of the state...generally south and east of a line from the cape to the keys. this will likely bridge south florida into the rainy season which typically gets going in mid May anyway in that region.


Do you have a link to that page I can never find it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Taffy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:05 am
Location: Lehigh Acres/SW Florida

Re: Florida Weather

#12714 Postby Taffy » Wed May 09, 2018 9:40 pm

Thank you Chaser1. Excellent explanation of the map and what it was showing. Now I understand what I am looking at.

Let it rain!
0 likes   
Taffy-SW Florida

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4665
Age: 63
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Florida Weather

#12715 Postby chaser1 » Thu May 10, 2018 1:27 am

Taffy wrote:Thank you Chaser1. Excellent explanation of the map and what it was showing. Now I understand what I am looking at.

Let it rain!


Very welcome :wink:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12716 Postby Patrick99 » Thu May 10, 2018 7:08 am

Some years we just kinda ease into the rainy season. Other years, we get a catalyst. Looks like this will be one of those years.

I tended to think we are already in the rainy season, but dewpoint this AM is still 67 degrees....we still haven't met the "days above 70" criterion.
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1381
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12717 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu May 10, 2018 1:07 pm

Crap it's gonna rain. The NWS Miami radar is down. Always rains when that happens. :lol:
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 11&loop=no
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12718 Postby Patrick99 » Thu May 10, 2018 2:56 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Crap it's gonna rain. The NWS Miami radar is down. Always rains when that happens. :lol:
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 11&loop=no


I don't see anything on my radar app. See plenty of rain in the FL Straits though. It's coming!
0 likes   

canes92
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 96
Age: 31
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:51 pm

Re: Florida Weather

#12719 Postby canes92 » Thu May 10, 2018 3:30 pm

Looking forward to the rainy season!
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12720 Postby northjaxpro » Fri May 11, 2018 5:39 am

Well, finally measured the first 90 degree reading of 2018 yesterday. 91.2 degrees at my locale. Today is forecast to reach into the lower 90s interior.

The models are showing development of a mid-upper trough over the Eastern GOM on Monday. GFS wants to develop a surface reflection off shore of the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday morning.

Bottom line, regardless of development, deep moisture on southerly flow from this system will bring widespread beneficial rain to the entire peninsula next week. Heavy rainfall potential will also be possible as well.Definitely will monitor this next week.

It is still too soon for me to get fully invested with regards of what the GFS insists on developing a potential healthy tropical cyclone moving north out of the Caribbean just beyond the 10 day range. GFS is still basically mostly all out on a limb with this. I think by the end of this weekend, we have have a better idea of the situation. The other reliable models have to start showing development for me to get more intrigued. However, no doubt, wet times are in store for the state going forward and the rainy season finally looks to kick into gear starting next week..
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 51 guests