Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

I hope there is some cooler weather coming, because right now, it seems as if we are skipping straight to summer. I'm not too hopeful.

[TheStormExpert]

Really not surprised we had no Winter with the La Niña even though it lasted only 2 months.

Today started out pleasant with basically not a single cloud in the sky except off in the far distance, but as went into the afternoon clouds started increasing coming off the Atlantic and now there is basically and stall/slow moving band of rain sitting along or just off the coast.

Feels suddenly very Summer-like!

[psyclone]

86 in Tampa was good enough for a record high. It felt great out there today and you can really feel the intensity returning to the sun. I love the Spring season in Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Flood Advisory for NE Palm Beach County until 11:45am with a Flood Warning for Eastern Martin County until 9am.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

FLC099-281645-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FA.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170228T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Palm Beach FL-
741 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has extended the

* Flood Advisory for...
Northeastern Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 1145 AM EST

* At 736 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to three inches of rain
have already fallen in some locations, with locally higher amounts
to near 5 inches possible.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
West Palm Beach, Boynton Beach, Wellington, Jupiter, The
Acreage, Royal Palm Beach and Palm Beach Gardens.

Additional rainfall of one to two inches is expected over the area.
This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 2652 8003 2670 8036 2690 8040 2696 8028
2696 8014 2697 8014 2697 8012 2662 8003

$$

60/BD

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
658 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

FLC085-281400-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.W.0001.170228T1158Z-170228T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Martin FL-
658 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Eastern Martin County in east central Florida...

* Until 900 AM EST

* At 656 AM EST, persistent heavy rain was occurring over eastern
Martin County between Stuart and Hobe Sound. Trained weather
spotters reported flooding along Kanner Highway and up to 5 inches
of rainfall in the Port Salerno area. Additional rainfall of up to
3 inches will occur in the warned area before the shower activity
is expected to dissipate later this morning.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Stuart, Port Salerno, Palm City, and Hobe Sound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 2697 8008 2697 8014 2696 8014 2696 8033
2721 8032 2721 8029 2722 8029 2723 8032
2725 8032 2724 8029 2723 8029 2726 8028
2727 8021 2726 8020 2727 8020 2727 8016
2719 8013 2703 8008

$$

Ulrich

[NDG]

So I hear Miami had the warmest Meteorological Winter on record!!!

We here in Orlando had the 4th warmest.

[psyclone]

I don't know where we ranked but it was insanely warm. Lowest temp in Feb @ Tampa was 50....that's close to the normal low at the beginning of the month! Now that the danger of freezes is done i'm cheering on spring cool shots...but not expecting much.

[Patrick99]

"So I hear Miami had the warmest Meteorological Winter on record!!!"

I'm not surprised. Even in a very ordinary winter, we get many more evenings and mornings in the 50s. Those were very few and far between down here during the "winter" of 2016-17.

For the most part, when we did get frontal passages, they merely dropped the temps into the 60s, and even then, those pleasant temps did not last.

I also swear that our morning lows have been running way above normal for much of the winter. We shouldn't be having as many mornings where the temp doesn't even crack below 70.

[psyclone]

My point and click shows no 80 degree highs for the next week...and lots of 50's to low 60's for lows....gasp...near normal temps! even a low 50's low coming up..which would challenge the lowest temp registered in Feb. in the winter of 12-13 march ended up colder than Dec-Feb...largely because the winter months were so much above normal. Perhaps we can score a similar result this year. In any case, superb weather is on deck!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well atleast will have some cool downs before the furnace comes. Here in S Fl.

Long range computer model guidance
continues to suggest a stronger frontal boundary moving through
the region late in the weekend towards early next week.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well it looks like the models backed off on that front. I would say were done with any 50's down here. Better luck next winter.

Latest computer model guidance shows the front stalling
out over South Florida during the second half of the weekend and
weakening as well. This will increase the chances of rain later in
the weekend into early next week.

[gatorcane]

GFS seems to suggest quite a front for Florida next week and we are getting into the medium-range:

[gatorcane]

Looks like all of the 12Z global model guidance suggests quite a front for next week invading Florida with below to much below normal temps...

[HURRICANELONNY]

Is this the same GFS that showed cold air heading down all winter only to flip to warm on next run.

[psyclone]

FWIW my point and click shows a high of 70 a week out...which is now about 6 degrees below normal. I'd bet on a brief cooldown since both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks still average out to the warm side of normal. It's also worth noting that normals are both rapidly rising and well off their low points...so I'm cheering on the cool as the time for "cold" is in the past. It'll be interesting to see how this evolves but in general a big storm in the northeast (possible) often yanks below normal temps down this way.

[northjaxpro]

This is what I am anticipating next week, looking at the latest model runs. A late-season winter storm is forecast, by late Sunday, to organize and potentially bomb off the DELMARVA and Northeast U.S. Coast. An upper trough will amplify across the Eastern CONUS in tandem with the developing late-season storm. It appears as if we will potentially see a decent cool down into the northern and central peninsula, certainly compared to what we have been seeing for the past couple of months. I agree with you psyclone, it will of course be a brief shot of cooler air, but 30s are possible down into North Florida by middle of next week.

I will take it for mid-March. It has simply been a non-winter we have experienced , at least we will get some semblance of a cool down in this area next week, before the heat and humidity really sets in for good real soon.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS:

[HURRICANELONNY]

I might have to eat crow. I said no more 50's this winter.

Behind the front, we will see drier, cooler air enter the
peninsula of Florida. We could see some chilly mornings mid next
week if this pans out. At this point, things could definitely
change in the extended forecast period but some last tastes of
winter could be on offer.

[psyclone]

Looks like the odds of a period of below normal temps are going up. I even have a sub 70 high in the extended with some chilly nights thrown in. These late season cool snaps are the best so I'm hoping this one is an overachiever. BTW the 6-10 shows below normal and the 8-14 has cooled to normal...that's something we didn't see all winter so that is encouraging.

[Patrick99]

Would gladly take that for mid-March.

[TheStormExpert]

Don't look now, the 18z GFS is even MORE bullish!