Florida Weather

[psyclone]

What looked like a really big rain event a few days ago for much of the peninsula has been chipped away. Maybe some decent rains for south florida and little or nothing above the latitude of lake O. The cooler temps have filtered in and really feel nice. They're going to hang around for a few days so that's a good deal this time of year

[gatorcane]

Very summer-like as far as showers developing along seabreeze-driven convection and heading towards coast late in the evening yesterday. Seems we get a few of these days in March every year as we inch closer to the rainy season start timeframe of around third week in May.

[Patrick99]

What looked like a really big rain event a few days ago for much of the peninsula has been chipped away. Maybe some decent rains for south florida and little or nothing above the latitude of lake O. The cooler temps have filtered in and really feel nice. They're going to hang around for a few days so that's a good deal this time of year

If that is so bring on the rain! NWS Miami showing 90% chances for tonight and tomorrow. Got some fairly heavy rain showers yesterday evening, too.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, South Florida really looks to cash in with some pretty significant rainfall the next couple of days as a shortwave disturbance moves over the region along the southern stream jet.

[psyclone]

Decent rain chances continue for south florida with the best chance for heavy rain on the east coast from about Martin county southward. Elsewhere a nice stretch of cool weather is in progress. It is downright refreshing here. This could well be our last stretch of coolish weather until Fall so enjoy it.

[arekkusu]

Currently enjoying some cooler temps in NE FL, but not much (if any) precipitation here. The wind has really picked up since about yesterday, though. Nearshore and open waters are well past small craft advisory levels, and some places along the coast are starting to experience very minor beach erosion and coastal flooding.

Edit (March 20): After a somewhat quiet few days after the mess in the southwest in terms of severe weather throughout the US, it looks like it's coming back soon. SPC issued a Day 5 15% risk for parts of TX and OK this morning. Predictability is too low at this time in regards to continuation of this threat, but I'm wondering if it will eventually migrate to parts of the panhandle. I'm not an expert by any means (I'm a student with internet access), so if anybody with more experience wants to chime in, feel free.

[Patrick99]

So is that pretty much going to be the extent of our rain for the next 2 months before rainy season starts? It'll be interesting to see if we go bone-dry for April and most of May until the spigots turn on, or will we see an earlier ramp-up to the rainy season? Some years we start getting summerlike seabreeze convection in April, other years it's nowhere to be found.

[TheStormExpert]

There is talk that April will be warmer than average in the Eastern half of the U.S. so that could indicate the return of our annual quasi-rainy season that we've seen in April for the past several years.

Btw, where I'm at here in Palm Beach Gardens we've picked up 16.13 inches of rain since January 1st for what it's worth.

[Taffy]

During this rain event, we got an inch and a half of rain here in Lehigh Acres in SW Florida. I was happy to have it.
I read that our Summer will be a DRY El Nino so reduced Hurricane season. I thought El Nino was wet? Need a wet Summer. Confused.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm surprised with this late season cooldown considering that the NAO is nearly two standard deviations above neutral. Then again the PNA is positive and I guess that's all it took this go around.

Btw, dew-points are currently in the 30's with humidity percentages in the 20's!

[psyclone]

Not only is this weather exceptional...it is persistent with tons of sun, breezy conditions, mild days and cool nights. Southern Cal weather. The PGA is in town here and the weather could not be better. My current NWS forecast doesn't have an 80 temp for the next week. Last night was downright cool and tonight will be more of the same. Normalish to slightly below normal in March is a divine pattern.

[arekkusu]

Wouldn't be surprised if NE FL experienced a long period of rain within the next two weeks. Weather.com forecast is showing good chances for precipitation on every day in the first week of April for my immediate area, but we all know how unreliable those are.

Also looked at GFS and using the almost no knowledge of forecasting models and the logistics behind severe weather that I have, it looks like things might be very unstable in the Gulf of Mexico pretty far out; I'm talking Day 10+ range. I wonder how that will turn out.

[northjaxpro]

I have thoroughly enjoyed the cool spell for most of this month, especially the past week or so. We have had a nice onshore flow from the Atlantic to keep us nice, cool and refreshed. We deserved this much from Mother Nature after such an anomalously warm February.

Looks like we will be getting some rain back in the region within the next 7-10 days going into April. Overall, not bad at all going into April. I do not see any real warm to hot weather for the peninsula at least for the next couple of weeks.

[TheStormExpert]

Days like today are rare.
 https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/1109207767624097793

[arekkusu]

We're looking at some very windy conditions in the middle of the week here in NE FL thanks to a strong high pressure system. Seas are expected to hit the 15-20 ft range, depending if we're talking about the nearshore or outer waters, and sustained winds to 30 kts are also likely with gusts past gale force.

Some areas around St. Augustine already experienced a little coastal flooding this past week, which was apparently bad enough to where the St. Johns County Commission declared a state of local emergency for a small area where the roads were inundated. If I recall correctly, conditions (wind speed in particular) weren't as bad then as they are expected to be later on.

Personally, I'm a bit scared for the drive back home from school in Gainesville on Wednesday. My 1995 Toyota does not like the wind and things can get pretty interesting going 65+ mph on US 301 and State Road 24. I'm tempted to bolt early, but I have an exam worth 30% of my grade that morning and an attendance mandatory class in the afternoon, so that would be out of the question.

Also, I forgot to mention that I live right by the St. Johns River, so that might be a bit of a problem, too.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yup fv3 and euro showing a low just east of Jax with wind gusts over 40 mph into midweek. Gonna be a windy couple days!!!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah a nor'easter event will unfold here in Northeast Florida, beginning Tuesday evening, and lasting into Thursday.

A strong upper trough axis will sharpen just off the coast after the frontal passage Tuesday evening. The big thing to watch will be the potential of training, or development of convergence, consisting of heavy rain bands moving onshore over the same areas by mid week. It could bring flood potential for some localized areas. This is a common occurance with some of these strong nor'easter events I have seen around here through the years, and this will be monitored closely. Plus, a 1034 mb High, forecast by the models to be positioned over the Mid-Atlantic region by 12Z Wednesday morning, will really enhance that pressure gradient across the region here. I am sure we likely will see all the coastal flood watches/potential advisories, and gale wind advisories off shore, and even potential inland wind advisories by mid-week. It will be an interesting week here coming up.

[arekkusu]

NWS Jacksonville now forecasts 40+ knot wind gusts Wednesday for the nearshore waters, so we will definitely see "at least" gale-force conditions. I'm doubtful that there will be any frequent storm-force wind gusts, but this is still probably enough for concern, especially since some of the more northern areas have some good rain chances between today and Wednesday, which, like northjaxpro has said, would exacerbate any potential flooding issues.

Not a forecaster by any means nor do I have any professional training regarding the weather, but I think the areas most at risk of flooding would be coastal Nassau/Duval and northeastern Clay by the SJR (which is where I live, lucky me), as well as coastal Camden and Glynn in GA. Really curious as to how this will turn out, but like I said before, I'm not exactly excited to deal with all that myself.

I think a Wind Advisory is imminent for at least all of the coastal counties (Glynn, Camden, Nassau, Duval, St. Johns, and Flagler).

EDIT 3:49 P.M.: NWS Jax just put all open waters (20-60 nm) locations under gale watch:

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
320 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019


AMZ470-472-474-260830-
/O.NEW.KJAX.GL.A.0004.190326T1900Z-190328T2000Z/
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
320 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Gale
Watch, which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
afternoon.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent
gusts to gale force. Seas 8 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Strong winds possible along Florida’s northeast coast this week. Gusts of 50 mph a pretty good bet.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/8Exutn1nqPhL1PMw7

[Patrick99]

While they were many miles west from my location, I did notice some seabreeze-driven showers building up inland yesterday.