Florida Weather

[psyclone]

I feel like Im doing to get a whole bunch of nothing... near the space coast

That's what you should expect and the forecast pretty much reflects that

[gatorcane]

The line of storms west of Tampa looks intense. Let’s see if it holds together all the way to the coast or if it weakens some on the approach (which often happens as they approach the colder shelf water).

[SFLcane]

With a storm system this big and wide in coverage one has to wonder why is the southern half of the FL Peninsula missing out? We're on the verge of an El Niño in a El Niño behaving winter so what are we missing? Anyone have any input?

https://media.giphy.com/media/9P96RAnoXwV93DgnbK/giphy.gif

It's still early in the season. Normally in El Nino winters the storm systems don't really start affecting South Florida until January. Also, this being a weak El Nino so far, stronger storms far to the south are not as common or numerous as in strong El Nino years.

[psyclone]

That does often happen but it didn't last Sunday...the storms actually powered up on approach so you never know. There's some decent rotation in some of these...in general they look to be angling toward Pasco/Hernando counties if they hold together

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1073667455145467904

[HurricaneBelle]

SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for west-central Florida:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Florida
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1000 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of strong thunderstorms is approaching the west
coast of central Florida. These storms will move across the watch
area, posing the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles east northeast
of Saint Petersburg FL to 35 miles west northwest of Sarasota FL.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

[psyclone]

Looks like a SVR watch coming for west central florida due to that line coming in...which continues to look decent. definitely some wind threat if it maintains

[psyclone]

Radar and lightning data show a general weakening trend as convection nears the coast. Looks like a heavy rain/flood threat due to the slow eastward progression of the line vs a severe threat. radar estimates show very impressive rain totals offshore and north of the Tampa bay area. Getting some thunder here which is a delight in December.

[floridasun78]

i notice front been stronger late fall in florida been notice more cold days here in south fl and past year look like it El Nino affect been so such colder and temp jump here from warm to cold back warm and cold i got cold jump temp can affect your body

[floridasun78]

going feel like Christmas here in south fl now only 68 that low for this time a day look front not clear area yet very cloudy we going drop to low 50 and tue too low 50 too and little warm up and drop low 60s on Friday put i see if that chance by wed and miami weather service saying could see strong storm with weekend front so likely whole state could see strong storms doing weekend

i got cold from temp drop been cazy with high of 83 and high only 62 and cold night in upper 40s

[boca]

It looks like the rain will dry up before it gets to SE Florida

[SFLcane]

Unbelievable what is going on!!?? Every single system Just poofs south of the lake

[boca]

Unbelievable what is going on!!?? Every single system Just poofs south of the lake

It’s amaxong with a El Niño that we can’t get rain south of lake O. It just dries up.Why?? Even if we had a La Niña we would still get rain. All the canals, lakes, and ponds are all way down. Let’s hope the pattern changes because north and central Florida are water logged and we are in a moderate drought, soon to be severe.

[northjaxpro]

Well, we certainly were waterlogged for the entire yesterday for sure. It rained continuosly for 27 consecutive hours from 1a.m. yesterday morning through 4 a.m. this morning. The total rainfall was 2.4 inches ending this morning at my locale.It is remarkable the rain amounts were not significantly more, considering the long duration of this event. It was mostly light to steady rain the entire event for the Jax metro area. However, other than having a local nor'easter or .a tropical cyclone, I can not recall having an all day long continuous rain. There were some spots which picked up heavier amounts of upward to 5 inches of rainfall, mainly down around Gainesville to Palatka.

Thankfully, the atmosphere stayed stable to keep severe weather out of our area for the event. BTW, since Nov. 1, I have measured now just over 10 inches of rainfall at my home, including yesterday. This is amazing since November and December normally are among our driest months of the year. The El Nino pattern has definitely given us plenty of rain up here this Fall and early Winter for sure.

The southern branch of the jet stream just has not shifted far enough south just yet for the storms to really impact extreme South Florida. This hopefully will change as we get into January and February.

We finally get a break up here with the rain gone for now until our next southern stream system comes down the pike. We will have nice, seasonable days temp wise with highs in the 60s and lows in the low-mid 40s up at least through Tuesday. GFS is showing potential rain moving back in possibly by Thursday for the peninsula.

Also, this morning's 06Z GFS run is showing a deep upper level trough carving itself out across the Eastern CONUS by next weekend. This may bring another potential freeze up here across the North Florida area, if this GFS run comes close to verifying.

[boca]

:uarrow: Well, we certainly were waterlogged for the entire yesterday for sure. It rained continuosly for 27 consecutive hours from 1a.m. yesterday morning through 4 a.m. this morning. The total rainfall was 2.4 inches ending this morning at my locale.It is remarkable the rain amounts were not significantly more considering the long duration of this event. It was mostly light to steady rain the entire event for the Jax metro area. However, other than having a local nor'easter or .a tropical cyclone, I can not recall having an all day long continuous rain. There were some spots which picked up heavier amounts of upward to 5 inches of rainfall, mainly down around Gainesville to Palatka.

Thankfully, the atmosphere stayed stable to keep severe weather out of our area for the event. BTW, since Nov. 1, I have measured now just over 10 inches of rainfall at my home, including yesterday. This is amazing since November and December normally are among our driest months of the year. The El Nino pattern has definitely given us plenty of rain up here this Fall and early Winter for sure.

The southern branch of the jet stream just has not shifted far enough south just yet for the storms to really impact extreme South Florida. This hopefully will change as we get into January and February.

We finally get a break up here with the rain gone for now until our next southern stream system comes down the pike. We will have nice, seasonable days temp wise with highs in the 60s and lows in the low-mid 40s up at least through Tuesday. GFS is showing potential rain moving back in possibly by Thursday for the peninsula.

Also, this morning's 06Z GFS run is showing a deep upper level trough carving itself out across the Eastern CONUS by next weekend. This may bring another potential freeze up here across the North Florida area, if this GFS run comes close to verifying.

I hope we start getting rain down here because everything is drying up and we are missing the rain by 100 miles to the north with it’s southern most extent. Hey northjaxpro send the rain here don’t hog it all.

[northjaxpro]

Lol... Hey boca I wish I could send you some of it for sure. We certainly have had too much rain up here.

The GFS is encouraging for you all down there. It is showing good prospects for rain down in South Florida by Thursday. I really hope the GFS will come through with this potential later next weekfor everyone down there.. I really hope so!!

[gatorcane]

Unbelievable what is going on!!?? Every single system Just poofs south of the lake

It’s amaxong with a El Niño that we can’t get rain south of lake O. It just dries up.Why?? Even if we had a La Niña we would still get rain. All the canals, lakes, and ponds are all way down. Let’s hope the pattern changes because north and central Florida are water logged and we are in a moderate drought, soon to be severe.

Not surprising as the best dynamics always looked to be across Central and Northern Florida this go around.

Northjaxpro yeah next system looks potent and maybe more rain further down the peninsula:

[psyclone]

With 2 heavy rain events here in the past week we are saturated with water laying everywhere and in no hurry to soak in. the rain amounts from the big bend to the northern nature coast and east the to the Gainesville/Ocala area were very heavy with widespread 3-6"+ amounts and some 6-8" jackpots tossed into the mix. Many rivers are in flood in this region. Looks like some seasonable weather is on tap for a few days but the rain machine may reload late this week. This has been a most interesting start to the cold season this year. very active.

[boca]

What is amazomg that we are in a drought and north and central Florida are water logged.

[psyclone]

What is amazomg that we are in a drought and north and central Florida are water logged.

Yeah it's quite a dramatic cut off...even in central florida the east is in a moderate drought while out toward the tampa bay region and (especially) points north it is wet. Hats off to WPC for consistently predicting a big dump of heavy rain in the big bend...they certainly had the right idea well ahead of time with areas south and east of there cashing in more than expected..