Florida Weather

[HurricaneBelle]

Magnificent weather today. We've waited a couple hundred days for this!

You said it! First time this season I get to keep the A/C off for at least 24 hours straight, we had a couple of days last month where I was able to turn it off in the morning but by late afternoon it had to go back on.

[psyclone]

KTPA finally registered a sub 60 low coming in at 58. Amazing how cold 60ish temps feel after a long summer. Good firepit weather among friends last night leaves me craving more. Sunday football finally feels appropriate

[gatorcane]

Looks like the setup this weekend might feature a developing low off the SE US coast and northern Florida coast, which in turn would bring NNW continental air down the peninsula. The GFS has trended cooler the last couple of runs with upper 40s to around 50 into Central Florida and 50s into far south Southern Florida. With this setup SE Florida would not benefit as much from the Gulf Stream.

[TheStormExpert]

Better enjoy it while it’s here because long-range hints are pointing at a warm and toasty Turkey Day!

[northjaxpro]

Arctic front just now passing through Mobile, AL , in which winds shifted to the NW 25 mph, with gusts to 33 mph just in the past 30 minutes and temp 53 degrees. The temp is forecast to drop to the upper 30s there by 8 a.m.. and stay in the 40s all day there and later across the Florida Panhandle area after 8 a.m. this morning. Rain should end there by 11 a.m. this morning.


The front will bring rain to the Big Bend region by late morning and should pass through the Tallahassee area and temps will drop there into the upper 40s by mid to late afternoon. The front should arrive with rain across the remainder of North and Northeast Florida by 4:00 this afternoon, and temps should fall into the upper 40s in metro area by 7p.m. this evening. Strong low level cold advection will definitely be on display today as the day progresses across North Florida.

Freeze Warnings up for the Florida Panhandle area and a Freeze Watch for the Big Bend area for tomorrow morning. Freeze Watch was also posted for interior North Florida region over the Suwannee River Valley. Gusting North to Northwest winds behind the front will really bring a biting wind chill across the area later today and tonight.

Latest Guidance has trended colder for tomorrow morning, with projected low temps for Tallahassee tomorrow morning 34 degrees and the Jacksonville WFO 38 degrees for tomorrow morning. Interior Northeast Florida areas west of the Saint Johns River will stay above freezing mark tomorrow morning as the winds veer to onshore on early Wednesday as the modified Artic High Pressure axis (1043 mb) over the Southern Plains currently, shifts east to the Mid Atlantic region. High temps only in the mid-upper 50s across all of North and Northeast Florida on Wednesday.

Front will pass into Central Florida later tonight and min temps down across the region will mainly be in the upper 40s to lower 50s range from interior North Central Florida (Ocala, Leesburg area) south to southeast to the I-4 corridor. Highs Wednesday down there will be mainly in the lower to mid 60s across most areas of the Central Florida region.

Interesting weather of note the rest of the week across the peninsula as a rather potent shortwave system along the southern stream jet will traverse over our area. It will bring a wet, and rather cool, unsettled weather across the region, especially North and Central Florida, from Thursday and lasting into the upcoming weekend. I will elaborate more on this later....

[NDG]

TV Mets in Orlando better stop making such a big deal about lows in the upper 50s tomorrow morning and a high near 70 F or the rest of the Deep South who will be in the deep freeze tonight will be making fun of us

Like I have been saying, we are lucky the +NAO has stayed slightly positive and the PNA is currently neutral otherwise those freezing temps would had been coming straight down to central FL instead we are just getting side swept by it.

[NDG]

Better enjoy it while it’s here because long-range hints are pointing at a warm and toasty Turkey Day!

Yep, long range forecasters on Tweeter are pointing towards a warm end of November into December for the eastern US by looking at the MJO and analog years.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah we lucked out again NDG because the PNA was suppose to be in positive index beginning this week. We would have had a certain widespread freeze across most of North Florida, if the PNA had did as forecast. Instead, only just the Panhandle area will see a freeze this time around.

[northjaxpro]

One of these times our luck is going to eventually run out. I have been saying this for the past decade , but at some point, Mother Nature will bring us a severe cold outbreak.

It took 11 years for the hurricane streak to finally come to an end across the peninsula in 2016 when Hermine came an ended that.

When when this incredulous streak without a major cold outbreak across Florida will end?????????????????

[northjaxpro]

I just checked the very latest GEFS teleconnnnections forecast and a negative EPO, positive PNA and negative NAO, are all being forecast to align by the end of November and by the start of December.

Now IF, and I am going to really stress IF, these forecast indices are correct, then we could possibly be looking at very cold weather across the Eastern North America continent, which could deliver cold all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico and Florida by Dec 1. Again, this is IF the forecast is right. We SHALL SEE how this turns out......

HOWEVER, remember how the GEFS busted big time on predicting the - NAO during last winter's SSW event. It never came to fruition, despite everything else at that time with the indices lined up to bring arctic cold southward. I got burned, like many on this. Oh how I won't never, ever forget that

[psyclone]

Even though we're just getting fringed by this chill...it is still very respectable by mid November standards and certainly a drastic change compared to the bonus month of summer we just experienced in October. This is plenty cool for me! And even if it does moderate by the end of the month...we have broken the back of the high dewpoints (and warm sea temps that fuel them) so a rebound now just = nice warm weather.

[northjaxpro]

Even though we're just getting fringed by this chill...it is still very respectable by mid November standards and certainly a drastic change compared to the bonus month of summer we just experienced in October. This is plenty cool for me! And even if it does moderate by the end of the month...we have broken the back of the high dewpoints (and warm sea temps that fuel them) so a rebound now just = nice warm weather.

You are right Psyclone. It is a rather impressive early season arctic cold spell for mid-November to come across most of the Central and Eastern CONUS. Freezing temps are very possible tonight across the panhadle, especially around Crestview , and temps could get to near freezing across areas of the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley of North Florida. Freeze Watch was posted for interior Southeast Georgia counties by the Jax NWS office late this morning. It will be into the upper 30s here at my home station tomorrow morning with wind chills in the upper 20s to low 30s.

We just had one of the hottest summers on record here in Jax these past few months, which included the hottest September ever on record here, and we had 91 degrees on Halloween, the latest 90 degree or higher temp ever recorded in Jax. So, yes, I am loving this cool down!!! It isn't record breaking cold yet, which I know you and several down here prefer not to see anything that extreme, but it does feel great. It gets me really into the holiday mood!!

[psyclone]

Yes! Tis the season for football/firepit/comfort food weather. BTW look at how fast temps are tumbling behind that front (TLH for example)...while areas to the east like Gainesville are still 80ish...big changes are coming..

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Yes! Tis the season for football/firepit/comfort food weather. BTW look at how fast temps are tumbling behind that front (TLH for example)...while areas to the east like Gainesville are still 80ish...big changes are coming..

Yes indeed. I have been monitoring the front all day. Temps at this hour are only in the 40s back into the Panhandle areas currently, and it is currently 54 degrees in Tallahassee, and at my home weather station it is 82 degrees currently.The front is just now reaching the Suwannee River Valley region now and will be pushing across Lake City within the next hour or so and moving into the Jax metro area by 4:00-5:00 p.m. hour late this afternoon. We will see some rain with the frontal passage late this afternoon into the early evening before ending. Cold tonight and tomorrow across North Florida.

[northjaxpro]

FROPA occured here at my home station at 2:55 p.m. Front moving through about an hour faster than I anticipated earlier. Temp dropped 7 degrees in 15 minutes this past hour. Light rain, currently 69 degrees and falling. NW wind gusting at times to 25 mph.

[NDG]

Big temperature gradient this morning across FL, mid 20s across the western Panhandle with low to mid 70s across S FL.
Upper 50s to low 60s across the I-4 corridor as forecasted. What is interesting is that after the Arctic front came through my area started cooling faster than I thought late last night so I thought temps were going to be lower than forecasted this morning but after 3 AM they leveled off as soon as the winds started shifting more from the NNE.

[northjaxpro]

It is a very cold morning across most of the Eastern CONUS early on as a Deep Freeze is occuring all the way down to the Gulf Coast and into the Florida Panhandle at this hour. Outside of the Panhandle, thanks to the neutral phase of the PNA and neutral NAO, the Florida peninsula has once again escaped receiving this early season cold blast.

Some areas across the Deep South were closing in on setting record low temperatures this morning. Currently, it is 25 degrees in Atlanta, and it is 26 degrees in Milton FL out in the Panhandle.
Here across.most of North Florìda, temps in interior around the Big Bend region and the Suwannee River Valley are just above freezing. Tallahassee is currently 34 degrees and Lake City at 36 degrees.

Here in Jax, clouds and the onshore flow has temps mostly in the 40-45 degree range in most locales, although here at my home station, it did drop to 39 degrees, which is current temp.

[NDG]

Very cool picture for being in FL.

 https://twitter.com/wxkaitlin/status/1194584337230057473

[tropicwatch]

31.5 at my house in Panama City and of course the coastal area's in Bay County were not suppose to freeze. Mother Nature has a mind of her own.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, a very impressive Autumn season cold outbreak for sure. I will check a bit later to see the areas that set or tied record low temps across the region. New Orleans Lakefront Airport is checking in at 32 degrees this hour, and to see a hard freeze occuring in areas in the Florida Panhandle speaks for itself just how impressive this arctic air mass is for mid-November.

Meanwhile, 06Z GFS this morning is showing a very active Southern Stream Jet , which will bring into the Florida peninsula two shortwave systems, which will bring rain over the span of the next week.

The first shortwave will organize over the Western Gulf of Mexico beginning tomorrow morning and will traverse eastward and cross North Florida Friday, bringing a pretty good rain event across much of North and Centrsl Florida. A Low Pressure area will develop off the South Carolina coast late Friday into early Saturday. GFS is showing quite a vigorous Upper Level 500 mb cold pocket with this feature , which will move directly.over the Northeast Florida area on early Saturday. We will probably see quite a bit of wrap around moisture and even light rain lingering on the back side of this Low Pressure system during this upcoming weekend mainly on Saturday in Northeast Florida.

Also, this Low Pressure feature will keep the peninsula a bit below average with temps as a cool north to northwesterly flow on the back side of the Low Pressure area off the SC/NC coast. This should make many of my Storm2K Florida family happy to FINALLY get to feeI some nice autumn temps (for Florida standards that is) instead of 80s all the time down that way. It will be likely for the weekend, temps here in Northeast Florida will be 40s for lows and highs mostly in the 60s through the weekend.

Going into early next week, GFS is trying to develop another potential shortwave across the Southern GOM and moves it across South Florida on Tuesday and develops another Low Pressure and moves it off the coast. This could bring a decent rainfall event to those down in South Florida early next week. Something to monitor in the next few days.