TheStormExpert wrote:What once a few days ago was looking like a potentially potent arctic blast is now going to be nothing more than a quick cool down that we haven’t seen over a dozen times this winter.
Like I’ve said before, until the NAO goes negative (if ever) we won’t see the significant cold folks up north are dealing with.
From the looks of things as of this morning I highly doubt the NAO goes negative through the rest of this month. It’ll likely stay neutral to positive. Not sure what you’re seeing northjaxpro to drive the NAO negative, could you elaborate more?
What will drive the -NAO? What is the very key driving aspect you ask? Well, I have stated this previously several times:
The establishment and positioning of the Polar Vortex is the key. This process has yet to be completed, and will not for at least within the next 10 days. It is forecast to be in position near Hudson Bay by close to the end of January. The PV will serve as the chief focal point in directing the polar surges down into the CONUS. The teleconnection indices we see indicated now will be taking its influence when the PV gets in place. This is why we are seeing the models changing its solutions as they are adjusting to the variances to the massive large scale pattern change. I stated a few days ago to expect frequent changes in the short to medium term range (5-7 day range)
Large scale pattern shifts like this one are not going to happen quickly. They always are slow to evolve, and this one is not any different. There will be a massive pool of bitter cold which will be building across Central and Eastern Canada by the end of January/ the beginning of February. Long range ensembles are indicating extreme cold amonalies in this part of North America not seen potentially in years. Once the PV is firmly established, it will dictate and funnel chuncks of that air within its vast counter/clockwise rotation south down into eventually into the Eastern CONUS.
So, again, it is a methodical process folks. This is a long marathon in process. This is not a sprint! As I explained in past posts, a large massive cold pattern once locked into place like this one, could last at least a month or possibly longer.
I can keep explaining this ad nauseum to some of you, but it seems it feels like I am beating a dead horse at times...