Florida Weather

[NDG]

:uarrow: while it's not perfectly clear I interpreted this to reference incoming conditions rather than current but it is a bit unclear. Nevertheless the large takeaway is wetter conditions seem likely which is urgently needed.

Got it.
I have always said that our start to the rainy season always starts with something to spark it, not all the times does it start or stays with a traditional set up of summertime pattern, heck we have seen UL troughs get close to FL in the middle of the summer, not all the time does our pattern is the Bermuda ridge on top of us. The most important thing is that daytime heating along with dewpoints well into the 70s is the main fuel for our rainy season to start it, and it is here to stay most of the summer.

Image below cannot get anymore summer looking than that

[psyclone]

we're kind of getting shafted here on the west coast so far....earlier this week it looked like the focus may shift our way but now that looks less likely. At any rate, someone is getting heavy rain everyday and that is a big plus. the concentrated heavy rain threat (if it materializes) is still a good ways out, probably mid next week as a front edges down from the north and a plume of deep tropical moisture advects up from the southwest. As a bonus the added cloud cover should hold maxes below normal which will provide a respite from some of the excessive heat we've had to contend with in recent weeks.

[Patrick99]

Wow. This is the first time this "rainy season" I've heard a rumble of thunder and am receiving more than just a little "dusting" of rain. Pouring in Miami now, and I say bring it on!

[TheStormExpert]

Currently as I am typing it is pouring rain outside! Hallelujah!! Much more hopefully to come too.

[gatorcane]

the thing about these setups is that all the cloud cover can limit thunderstorm activity due to more limited daytime heating making the forecast trickier than usual. It appears that so far today that has kept a cap on thunderstorm development across most of South Florida despite the 60% rain chances area wide. I am optimistic that there will be enough daytime heating that later on today some convection will start to finally get going.

[AdamFirst]

50% or above rain chances every day here until next Sunday. We've gotten various degrees of rain for most of the day every day since Friday. The atmospheric river is in full effect.

[TheStormExpert]

A local met. here in West Palm Beach said on Facebook today the official start of the 2017 Rainy Season was May 29th.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

FWIW SPC has put much of the peninsula in marginal risk of Severe Storms on Tue/Wed due to high shear potentially overcoming the low buoyancy and low instability due to the widespread rain and cloud cover. It should also be windy on Tue/Wed due to a tight pressure gradient out ahead of the frontal low genesis that will occur over the EGOM. The biggest impact will be rain, with some of the local mets saying several inches possible over the next 3 days.

[psyclone]

Our drought is destined to be disassembled in a matter of days if the current forecast materializes. We're off to a great start.

[AutoPenalti]

Southeast Broward under a tornado warning. Looks like a hook echo was seen on radar.

[TheStormExpert]

It's a never ending stream of moisture!

[TheStormExpert]

Southeast Broward under a tornado warning. Looks like a hook echo was seen on radar.

Definitely not something you see everyday here in South Florida.

[NDG]

Something to watch out for, the HRRR forecasts more than a foot of rain for parts of S FL through tomorrow afternoon, this is on top of what has already fallen.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the sun has peaked through in Broward, we might get some sort of instability along with the 14th round of rain coming in during the next couple of hours.

[TheStormExpert]

I hope you guys in South Florida have finished constructing your arcs because it looks like you'll are in for YET another round of rough weather. Lost track of what day we are on of receiving rainfall.

Btw, I'm in Man-O-War Cay, Abaco, Bahamas praying this plume of rains misses me just to the north.

[gatorcane]

With some sun breaking through across SE Florida today out ahead of this band. curious if this band intensifies even more with added instability. Could get ugly across parts of SE Florida later today.

[AutoPenalti]

I hope you guys in South Florida have finished constructing your arcs because it looks like you'll are in for YET another round of rough weather. Lost track of what day we are on of receiving rainfall.

Btw, I'm in Man-O-War Cay, Abaco, Bahamas praying this plume of rains misses me just to the north.

Is that moving south east to north east?

[NDG]

Warmer MDR is making it even more humid.


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/872496949810925569

[Patrick99]

For a second I thought those were hurricane tracks. lol....come to think of it, I'm surprised that we rarely get hurricane tracks that look kinda like that.

The sun has been out for much of this morning. Maybe that will add some heating into the mix that hasn't really been present the last couple days.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yea... Should get back to more of an east flow by next week. Normal summer time pattern. Getting sick of all day rains.

This
should allow for a more typical sometime pattern to begin to
emerge over the next several days, with showers developing over
the eastern side of South Florida, and progressing to the interior
and Gulf Coast by Sunday afternoon.

Once this pattern gets established on Sunday, models are
indicating it will continue through at least most of the week, if
not through next weekend.