Florida Weather

[Evil Jeremy]

I’m absolutely loving these temps. This is the best “winter” we’ve had in SFL in eons. Another strong round next week? Yes please!

[psyclone]

Next week's cold has left the chat...for now. dicey couple of weeks though with cold close by..

[Patrick99]

For the weekend, the possibility of thunderstorms and measurable rainfall has entered the NWS Miami discussion. Kind of excited about that!

There is a ton of cold air on the map in the coming weeks, but not much of it really seems to drill down into the peninsula.

[mlfreeman]

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/2021/0 ... n-georgia/

if the calendar said 2020 still, I'd assume it was going to happen. Not sure what to think now though.

[psyclone]

Well...now we know when the GFS and EURO agree on cold outside the of the fantasy timeframe...we should still be leery. tonight may end up being one of the coldest nights of the winter with freeze watches for parts of central Florida.

[psyclone]

Frost advisories down to around Lake O...should be good radiational cooling tonight then the warming trend commences. it still looks like there's some risk of cold in the extended range.

[Patrick99]

And now the cold air does come, Tuesday/Wednesday after Valentines Day. Interesting. Still in long range land. I just hope we get storms this weekend, I want some thunder and lightning.

[psyclone]

42 this morning at both Tampa and St Pete clearwater
35 Orlando
25 Brooksville
Let the warm up begin after that cold morning

[toad strangler]

Bonafide frost all over my yard in Port Saint Lucie West this morning and THICK on the windshield!

[psyclone]

Bonafide frost all over my yard in Port Saint Lucie West this morning and THICK on the windshield!

we will need to wait for a final verdict but last night was probably peak winter.

[MetroMike]

delete

[NDG]

I wasn’t able to get into this site the past few days for some reason, weird. I thought that this site was having problems with its server, I guess I wasn’t the only one.

Very frosty this morning in my part of Orlando this morning but still no freeze.
January ended up near average to a degree above average in this area but it actually felt like it was a cooler than average month, I guess that compared to the past winters it felt that way.

Will have to watch the Siberian High coming down to the US next week, way too early to tell how cold it could here in FL, good thing for the higher sun angle of mid February by then.

[Patrick99]

And, we are now on the wild temperature swings (for us) phase of our winter season. After a chilly morning yesterday, I was pretty shocked when I went outside for a run yesterday evening - it was still "cool," but all the bite had been taken out of the air. This weekend is going to feel really warm and humid compared to the past week. NWS Miami even mentioned PWAT 1.7-1.8, very high for this time of year.

Last GFS run I saw, it looks like the Siberian high is more transient than before and just doesn't settle to where it would need to be in order for the coldest air to really drill down the peninsula. I hope that holds - I'm guessing that the farmers in much of the state don't need or want a late freeze.

[psyclone]

It finally feels like FL again with warmth back in place. The incoming cold and possible winter weather event in the southeast is likely to at least give us a return chill but hopefully nothing too bad...definitely worth monitoring. In the meantime, we have a much deserved break. The Spring pollen blizzard is now well underway. Pines didn't start pollinating here until the 30th...which is about 3 weeks late...and the latest i have observed in my time living here. Maybe they know something? In any case they're making up for lost time quickly. Bring on Spring!

[NDG]

I figured out why I was not able to get into storm2k during the past few days, it was google chrome, I am able to get in now through Microsoft Edge.

The latest 12z Euro does not agree with the GFS forecasted extreme temps for FL next weekend, most likely it will be a consensus between the two most likely that will be the final outcome.

[psyclone]

It's the standard issue delay/delay/deny. Winter is aging fast..especially at our latitude. That is offset by the extent of the cold up north. My expectation is we eventually get grazed but not frozen but time will tell. In the meantime it feels wonderful outside with sun and warmth for a change..

[NDG]

GFS and Euro can't be more bipolar than this for next weekend's forecast. Completely different sypnotic forecast in their 7-10 day range.

[NDG]

There's a slight risk for severe wx this evening into tonight from the I-4 corridor north.
Indeed we can see it, especially when there's a warm front that will be moving back north during the day today.

ay 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to
damaging winds, a tornado, and some hail may impact parts of the
Florida Peninsula today into tonight.

...Central/north FL this evening through tonight..
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over OK/TX this morning will
progress eastward to the southern Appalachians/Carolinas by early
Sunday morning, with associated surface cyclogenesis expected just
offshore of the Carolinas along a coastal front. Prior to the
cyclone forming off the Carolinas tonight, a warm/moist air mass
will spread northward across the FL peninsula, resulting in
destabilization into central and parts of north FL. Initial
clusters of storms will spread across north FL from the northeast
Gulf of Mexico, in a zone of strengthening warm advection/ascent
along the warm front.

Though low-level lapse rates will be rather modest, sufficient
moistening should occur by tonight for storms rooted very near the
surface along the front. Given MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, effective
bulk shear near 50 kt, effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 and midlevel
lapse rates in excess of 7.5 C/km, there will be potential for
organized clusters/supercells capable of producing damaging winds,
isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado. Convection will likely
persist in bands along and ahead of the cold front overnight across
central FL through 12z.

[psyclone]

Pretty decent thunderstorm development in the northeast gulf today. Radar should be worth watching today and tonight.

[NDG]

Tornado warned cell went right over my neighborhood in SW Seminole County during the past few minutes, I felt like I was in the midwest. Thunder with rain and even some small hail just ahead of the rotating part of the cell, when the rain paused in the dry slot part of it I went oustside and saw the rotating cloud but a funnel never lowered down with no much wind so it tells me that the rotation was elevated especially since the cell is near the north moving warm front.