Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

I am still wondering myself FlaWeatherDude, given the large scale blocking pattern over North America that is evolving right now. I would be rather surprised to put it quite as mildly as I can right now, if we do not see some type of negative NAO from this pattern by at least the beginning of February.

I am still expecting this to occur, unless that is if the models are just not handling this correctly. Time will tell.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Last January I dipped down to 28 despite no -NAO. So arctic blasts are still plausible with all other indices lined up. In fact, no real NAO blocking commenced last Winter until Late Feb/March. This year though we already had a big blocking episode in late Nov. and downwelling from this #SSW will begin to affect the surface on Jan. 26th so time will tell.

Anthony Masiello on Twitter mentioned the lack of phasing between the northern and southern S/W's of what would've been a big midwest blizzard by midweek is why the NAO won't tank just yet(it could still happen but times running out for that event). If that doesn't do it, I think other systems down the road will do the trick since the Pacific will play ball.

[NDG]

Last January I dipped down to 28 despite no -NAO. So arctic blasts are still plausible with all other indices lined up. In fact, no real NAO blocking commenced last Winter until Late Feb/March. This year though we already had a big blocking episode in late Nov. and downwelling from this #SSW will begin to affect the surface on Jan. 26th so time will tell.

Anthony Masiello on Twitter mentioned the lack of phasing between the northern and southern S/W's of what would've been a big midwest blizzard by midweek is why the NAO won't tank just yet(it could still happen but times running out for that event). If that doesn't do it, I think other systems down the road will do the trick since the Pacific will play ball.

Last winter's super cold pattern across the US was due to tanked -EPO. Thanks to the +NAO the FL Peninsula escaped most of the brutal cold December and January the rest of south central and southern US had to deal with.

[northjaxpro]

The temp is currently 32.4 degrees at 7:20 a.m. on my home ob currently.

This is the first freeze here since early December, and just only the third overall of this 2018-19 late Fall/Winter season thus far.

A chilly day on tap today here with max temp expected to reach the low 50s.

I hope everyone have a great day and I will elaborate more on the extended range a bit later...

[gatorcane]

45F in east Boca Raton. Coldest night of the winter so far.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Coldest night of the season, I got down to 42 in North St. Petersburg this morning. I’m curious to see what happens in the next few weeks with those lows and NAO.

[northjaxpro]

Both the 00Z Canadian, and GFS FV3 from last night still showed PV down across the Eastern CONUS, with the 00Z Canadian showing the PV over both the Ohio and TN Valley region for what its worth.

This morning's 06Z GFS run was warmer temp wise and weaker with the Gulf shortwave Jan 27-29. 06Z GFS run retreats the PV back across Eastern Canada, thus the warmer trend.

Last night's 00Z EURO still quite strong with shortwave along the Gulf Coast Jan 27-29.


Awaiting 12Z runs shortly of EURO, Canadian and GFS....

[NDG]

The best of the effects from the split PV after the SSWE will be felt in FL through the next 7-10 days at the most. The NAO is still positive and still forecasted to stay positive. PNA is now forecasted to go negative in the 7-14 day range. These teleconnections make sense with the MJO now moving into Phase 5. IMO.

[northjaxpro]

The best of the effects from the split PV after the SSWE will be felt in FL through the next 7-10 days at the most. The NAO is still positive and still forecasted to stay positive. PNA is now forecasted to go negative in the 7-14 day range. These teleconnections make sense with the MJO now moving into Phase 5. IMO.

Yeah, it is beginning to look as if whatever good punch of winter we will have down across here will be from January 27- Feb 3. It is apparently looking like our incredible luck regarding escaping a true heart of winter, negative NAO incredibly looks to continue, unless we get one last good chance later in February.


Generally in large extreme blocking patterns like this current set-up over the continent, we see some version of the - NAO. I am quite surprised to not see it materialize, if the current teleconnections indications hold up. Mother Nature truly has a mind of her own for sure!!

[Patrick99]

I'm impressed we actually got under 50 degrees this morning. And not a ton of wind, either, so you could actually enjoy it. Too bad temps are rebounding quickly with this one.

Yesterday morning we even had a bit of a squall line too......I even heard some thunder, I was shocked.

[psyclone]

Low 40's here this morning....felt frigid. Now the sun is feeling good. Pollen fest is on.

[northjaxpro]

The WFOs across the peninsula in their AFDs are beginning to discuss the potential the 12Z EURO and a few other models of potent shortwave emerging into the Eastern GOM and impacting the state for next Monday. EURO actually depicts a strong Low Pressure system impacting the region.

12Z EURO showed 996mb storm near Jax in 168 hours. Curious if that solution will hold with EURO or similar solutions with other reliable models as time progresses...

[gatorcane]

Looks rather robust, certainly this would bring very windy conditions for all of the peninsula, looks very El Niño-ish.



Also long-range in the wake of that low, the model shows the 850mb freezing line deep into the Gulf heading toward Florida, but we know the drill:

[FlaWeatherDude]

Sundays system will be a cool/chilly rain for C. Florida as opposed to our typical muggy warm sector rains(temps 70's/80's, dewpoints 60's/70's).

[chaser1]

Negative NAO or not, I'm getting a kick watching roughly one of every 2 or 3 GFS model runs depicting a little white dusting (NO, not cocaine people ) over the Panhandle/N. Florida with at least one of the frequent fronts plowing south during the next 10 days. One fleeting model run (think it was today's 12Z) depicted potential flurries smack over Orlando; hey, dare to dream LOL! Seems like the GFS has become less enthused with the tightening Gulf low but the EURO continues to cling to that set up.

[chaser1]

Model trends looking to keep any extreme cold north of Florida. Thank heaven we are able to reap the benefits of a progressive pattern that at least provides us with seasonally cool temps though.

Think you can you guess where THIS legit forecast for today comes from?? (hint: Eastern CONUS). I can't even imagine waking up to these conditions but it sure would be fun to witness LOL.....

"Sunny and cold, with a high near 5. Wind chill values as low as -46. Very windy, with a northwest wind 75 to 85 mph decreasing to 20 to 30 mph. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph"

[psyclone]

That sounds like a crisp winter day atop mt Washington nh. My grand scheme of freeze deprivation for florida has always been to delay, delay and ultimately deny severe cold into florida. Now that we're a month past the solstice...the turning of the screws is beginning to work magic. Look at how much extra daylight we've already gotten...

[chaser1]

That sounds like a crisp winter day atop mt Washington nh. My grand scheme of freeze deprivation for florida has always been to delay, delay and ultimately deny severe cold into florida. Now that we're a month past the solstice...the turning of the screws is beginning to work magic. Look at how much extra daylight we've already gotten...

And right off the bat, we have a WINNER! (I'm guessing the wind gusts up to 105 mph might have gave that away? ). Definitely on my bucket list to drive or rail up to the top.

[psyclone]

That sounds like a crisp winter day atop mt Washington nh. My grand scheme of freeze deprivation for florida has always been to delay, delay and ultimately deny severe cold into florida. Now that we're a month past the solstice...the turning of the screws is beginning to work magic. Look at how much extra daylight we've already gotten...

And right off the bat, we have a WINNER! (I'm guessing the wind gusts up to 105 mph might have gave that away? ). Definitely on my bucket list to drive or rail up to the top.

I would not have had a second guess.

[NDG]

Euro's 6-10 day range forecast has been a joke, so inconsistent & erroneous from day to day. Great example below.