Florida Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13121 Postby NDG » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:46 pm

boca wrote:We might be an a El Niño watch or on the verge of El Niño, but the pattern we are in is La Niña which is warm and dry.


That's the +NAO that has been keeping us warm, which is not that unusual to have during an EL Nino year. People in TX would probably say that their pattern so far has been very El Nino like.
Good example that this pattern is not usual to have during an early El Nino is 2015, despite a Super El Nino that winter November & Decembers were fairly dry and warmer than average.
1 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#13122 Postby psyclone » Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:07 pm

well my Wednesday high has gone from the mid 60's to 80...but the extended outlook for Friday and the weekend says 70 degree highs and mid 50's lows. While that would be exquisite weather there's plenty of time to move the goal posts...
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13123 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:45 pm

boca wrote:We might be an a El Niño watch or on the verge of El Niño, but the pattern we are in is La Niña which is warm and dry.


Lots of rain in coastal Boca Raton last night which was a welcome surprise.
1 likes   

User avatar
FlaWeatherDude
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 110
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:57 pm
Location: Orlando, FL.

Re: Florida Weather

#13124 Postby FlaWeatherDude » Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:37 pm

whenever you see a big dip in the jetstream in the models(showing cold for Florida), if thier also showing a strong shortwave over Mexico/offshore Pacific, more then likely they'll back off because of a trough split-denying Florida any cold air. That's exactly what's happening for mid week. However there is no strong s/w next weekend/early next week in the aftermentioned areas so that cold potential has some legs! If not at least by Friday through Thanksgiving or so looks seasonably cool(hopefully that doesn't change into a hot turkey day). I'll take it!
Last edited by FlaWeatherDude on Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
"Windy has wings to fly above the clouds".

User avatar
FlaWeatherDude
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 110
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:57 pm
Location: Orlando, FL.

Re: Florida Weather

#13125 Postby FlaWeatherDude » Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:14 pm

NDG wrote:
FlaWeatherDude wrote:Regarding the NAO if we can get the Scandinavian ridge to retrograde towards Greenand, game on for December! Eric Webb hinted at this on twitter. Not only could it give us a prolonged -NAO for next month but also a possible sudden stratuspheric warming event down the road! Next weeks cold front won't get that much below 60 in Orlando lol. In fact models are trending toward a stronger cool down next weekend. I would't doubt if that tread continues.

Heck I wouldn't at all be surprised if tommorrow models completely back off on a front next week and go gang busters on next weekends front lol.


Eric Webb has been calling for a -NAO since the summer and it has not materialize.


You mean an El Nino :D . Eric hasn't talked about anything NAO regated until recently.
0 likes   
"Windy has wings to fly above the clouds".

User avatar
FlaWeatherDude
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 110
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:57 pm
Location: Orlando, FL.

Re: Florida Weather

#13126 Postby FlaWeatherDude » Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:46 pm

Models are hinting at a Scandinavian ridge retrograde into Greenland! This should keep a southeast ridge from forming Thanksgiving week(thank goodness).

Image

Image

Though Positive Mountain Torque will make the Pacific unfavorable around Thanksgiving towards end of month.

Image

https://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

Thereafter as the +MT wanes, we could be talking about an awesome December! Fingers crossed!!! :D :D :D

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1061602575181643777
Last edited by FlaWeatherDude on Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
"Windy has wings to fly above the clouds".

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13127 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:15 am

FlaWeatherDude wrote:
NDG wrote:
FlaWeatherDude wrote:Regarding the NAO if we can get the Scandinavian ridge to retrograde towards Greenand, game on for December! Eric Webb hinted at this on twitter. Not only could it give us a prolonged -NAO for next month but also a possible sudden stratuspheric warming event down the road! Next weeks cold front won't get that much below 60 in Orlando lol. In fact models are trending toward a stronger cool down next weekend. I would't doubt if that tread continues.

Heck I wouldn't at all be surprised if tommorrow models completely back off on a front next week and go gang busters on next weekends front lol.


Eric Webb has been calling for a -NAO since the summer and it has not materialize.


You mean an El Nino :D . Eric hasn't talked about anything NAO regated until recently.


In the summer he posted how the NAO was going to go negative during late summer/early Autumn with an incoming El Nino, he made the comparison to 2009 when a lot of pros were pointing out to 2009 as analog year.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13128 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:10 pm

And he is still pushing the -NAO as of today. I for one am hoping he is right in a sense so it can start feeling like the holidays in time for the holidays. Hate having to wait until after the new year for any significant cool downs! :x
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#13129 Postby psyclone » Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:08 pm

looks like some cooler air is finally on the way and it's going to hang around for more than a day. some highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's for central florida and perhaps a day or 2 of sub 70 highs. bring it!
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13130 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:17 pm

The Atlantic Ridge is at the moment putting the brakes on the cold front, which is ever so slowly.moving through the extreme western panhandle at this time. Temps are in the low to mid 50s with rain out in Pensacola and Crestview at this hour.

Meanwhile, it is a toasty 86 degrees here on the home thermometer currently.

Cold front progged to finally move through Jax area late tomorrow/ early Thursday. Rain chances does increase late tonight into Thursday.

Cooler temps here Thursday night into Friday .RaIn ends with the cold frontal passage here late Thursday, then clearing and cooler weather finally. Min temps forecast to get down near 40 degrees interior colder areas of Northeast Florida Friday morning.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13131 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:50 pm

Well, another record max temperature record set this afternoon at the NWS Jax office.
.
87 degrees .

This broke the record of 86, which had stood since 1899 on this date.

This is the third record max temp recordrd this month already.

Just another day at the beach in this area. :roll:

Hopefully the cooldown is coming to put me in the holiday mood by Friday.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13132 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:50 pm

Had some storms roll through this evening. Took this picture in Stuart a little after 5 PM

Image
6 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13133 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:07 pm

Interesting model runs by the GFS suites, showing a potential squall line (derecho?) event heading into Thanksgiving/Black Friday. This has been shown over the past couple runs.

Image
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13134 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:41 pm

:uarrow: I saw that earlier in the long range. Indeed, that would be very interestiing if it pans out. This would be a potential classic El Nino ish storm pattern with the active sub tropical jet stream impacting the peninsula.

There will likely be more changes to this as time progresses as this is still just under 10 days out.

However, definitely something to keep an eye on going into Thanksgiving week.
1 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13135 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:34 am

NWS Miami current forecast for this week has really tightened the brakes on any kind of significant cool air. Feels like summer. They are mentioning one night in the mid-60s. So overall, this is going to be completely blocked off by the SW Atlantic ridge.....which by the way is showing up plain as day on the satellite loop. If you want cold air into Florida, that is not what you want your satellite loop looking like.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13136 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:38 am

We have the NAO forecasted to go decently negative by months end, now if we could just get the PNA to go and stay positive for more than just a few seconds. :lol:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6306
Age: 59
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13137 Postby boca » Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:31 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:We have the NAO forecasted to go decently negative by months end, now if we could just get the PNA to go and stay positive for more than just a few seconds. :lol:


That was funny about the PNA being positive and the NAO being negative for a few seconds as well
1 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13138 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:44 pm

Warm Novembers are nothing new to me, but wow is it ever hot and nasty outside. 85 with 72% humidity right now. Plus the sun makes it feel like it's about a thousand degrees.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13139 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:15 pm

Patrick99 wrote:NWS Miami current forecast for this week has really tightened the brakes on any kind of significant cool air. Feels like summer. They are mentioning one night in the mid-60s. So overall, this is going to be completely blocked off by the SW Atlantic ridge.....which by the way is showing up plain as day on the satellite loop. If you want cold air into Florida, that is not what you want your satellite loop looking like.

Well it's still nice to see some sort of a front plow through the pesky SE ridge this time of year regardless of how cool it actually gets behind it.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#13140 Postby psyclone » Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:56 pm

It's obnoxious out there today but we're on the verge of much better conditions and even some jacket weather down to the I-4 corridor. temps are expected to fall through the 60's tomorrow during the day as long overdue legit cold air advection gets underway.
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol and 46 guests