Florida Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11701 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 12, 2017 3:18 pm

The remnants of TD 4 is surely bringing in some nice tropical showers to the Peninsula, got caught under one of those heavy tropical downpours, visibility to near zero.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
MetroMike
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:

Re: Florida Weather

#11702 Postby MetroMike » Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:31 pm

NDG wrote:The remnants of TD 4 is surely bringing in some nice tropical showers to the Peninsula, got caught under one of those heavy tropical downpours, visibility to near zero.

Image

Have not heard much thunder with these, also they build up in heights quickly and also collapse quick before they reach the coast in some cases.
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11703 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 12, 2017 6:35 pm

SE FL is getting pounded this afternoon & evening.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11704 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 12, 2017 7:44 pm

NDG wrote:SE FL is getting pounded this afternoon & evening.

http://i.imgur.com/pwhtYUD.gif


But along the immediate coast of SE Florida north of Miami Beach, not much at all. :grr: can see the dark clouds to the west but they are not progressing towards the coast. Further north, West Palm and treasure coast saw some good rains.

There is still some time left before this wave exits the region so I am still hopeful some new storms will develop along coastal SE Florida.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11705 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:58 pm

The rains finally arrived at my locale. NWS Miami mentions another tropical wave to arrive tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11706 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:02 pm

Pattern shift incoming for the east coast, as southeast flow will focus shower development along the east coast seabreeze. Had been relatively dry on the coast since the passage of ex-TD 4.

Melbourne AFD
Monday...Axis of low level high pressure ridge settling slowly south
over the Atlantic will provide a light, mostly southeast/south wind
flow. This will moisten up southern sections early but the residual
dry pocket in the north will take until late in the day to erode.
Likely POPs look to be in order in the south, then taper to 40
percent on the north coast where convective initiation should be
delayed. The GFS shows 0-6km mean flow from the south/southwest,
but light at only 5 knots. With this offshore steering trajectory,
albeit weak, and the increased moisture, expect convective
initiation on the sea breeze to be closer to the Space/Treasure
Coasts. Therefore, likely POPs should encompass more of the
populated sections there.

Tuesday-Sunday...
Mid-level trough over southeast states early will shift offshore
by late week. This will inhibit the Atlantic subtropical ridge
from shifting back north, so some low level south/southwest winds
will persist into next weekend. High moisture is indicated through
about Thu, which will require likely POPs (50-60 percent) for
most of the area.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11707 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:14 pm

Finally a day with storms moving to the east towards the coast. Looks like we may have another day like this tomorrow though a bit less in coverage. The east wind pattern has mostly dominated this summer so far.
0 likes   

User avatar
MetroMike
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:

Re: Florida Weather

#11708 Postby MetroMike » Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:42 pm

gatorcane wrote:Finally a day with storms moving to the east towards the coast. Looks like we may have another day like this tomorrow though a bit less in coverage. The east wind pattern has mostly dominated this summer so far.



It's been just the opposite here in West Central FL.this month. Can't say I'm a fan of it either.Late morning early afternoon thunder, sometimes not even ANY rain just a threat of it. Makes outdoor planning difficult. Hope we can go back to just late aft.storms soon.
1 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11709 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:58 am

Storms haven't exactly been lighting up the sky over here on the east coast lately. Is this ridge-y pattern going to persist well into August and September? If so, peak hurricane season could get interesting.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11710 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:37 pm

A rather hot day across South Florida today, late October when the first front usually moves through can't come soon enough.
0 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11711 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Jul 27, 2017 7:38 am

I can deal with the heat as long as I get some afternoon storms to knock it down. This has been yet another summer where that doesn't happen for days, sometimes weeks at a time.

Looks like a little upper level twist is entering the area....wonder if this can actually help get anything going near the SE coast for once. NWS Miami doesn't seem to think so until the weekend, but I'll hold out hope.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11712 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:09 am

Finally we are getting some SW steering flow and a good chance of afternoon T-storms across South Florida East coast metro areas. For the most part this summer it has been hot, dry, and dusty at times with all storms pushed well inland or to the SW coast of Florida.

NWS Disco snippet from 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017. Also the BOLD part is interesting.

This weekend and next week: Southwesterly flow will prevail through
the weekend as upper level low over the northeast plains deepens an
elongated trough along the east coast. This trough is expected to
remain in place through next week, potentially digging as far south
to Fl bringing an unseasonably robust surface front into the state
Monday, potentially reaching as far south as Central FL
. Abundant
deep moisture ahead of the front will result in an increase period
of precipitation through mid week across South FL, with a few
more stronger storms possible as temps aloft cool down. Western
Atlantic ridge gradually retrogrades westward returning se flow
across south FL and as a result lifting the moist boundary north.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorm through the end
of the week but with less coverage into Friday.
0 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11713 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:30 pm

Wow, showers are now firing along the coast, a day or so before they were supposed to. It's a miracle! lol
1 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11714 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:54 pm

After a scorching past few days here (mid 90s with heat indices approaching the upper 100s), pattern shift in store tomorrow with plenty of rain for the next few days, with a stalling cold front and developing low pressure setting up a multi-day precipitation event.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Florida Weather

#11715 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:15 am

AdamFirst wrote:After a scorching past few days here (mid 90s with heat indices approaching the upper 100s), pattern shift in store tomorrow with plenty of rain for the next few days, with a stalling cold front and developing low pressure setting up a multi-day precipitation event.


Also need to watch the eastern GOM for possible tropical development the next 2 to 3 days as the front lifts north possibly leaving something behind
0 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11716 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:48 pm

As usual with messy tropical systems that hit the west coast, a fair bit of Emily's rain is making it over to the east coast. It has been intermittent moderate-heavy showers all day.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11717 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 04, 2017 4:15 pm

NWS Miami Mainland South Florida hurricane climatology article:

"Since 1851, a total of 20 named storms have affected Mainland South Florida during the month of August, including 10 hurricanes, 5 of which were major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). Historical records show that August ranks third in the number of hurricanes affecting Mainland South Florida, behind September and October."

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q= ... gPjWZ-syOw
0 likes   

SouthFloridian92
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 120
Age: 31
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:50 pm
Location: Sebring, Florida

Re: Florida Weather

#11718 Postby SouthFloridian92 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 5:50 pm

If we could just cut to autumn right now, that'd be great.

Thankfully the sun angle will start to wane soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
Taffy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:05 am
Location: Lehigh Acres/SW Florida

Re: Florida Weather

#11719 Postby Taffy » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:31 am

The sun can't start waning soon enough. I just read that El Nino may not develop. Will we even have a Fall and Winter? This last Winter and Fall were not satisfying. It was to warm and dry. We haven't received enough rain this Summer in my area at least. I have been here since 1978. The climate here has certainly changed a lot since then. Yesterday it was 105 in my backyard, bright sun cooking us. Suddenly there was a nice shower out of nowhere with the sun still shining brightly. The temperature dropped to 95 but later climbed back up into the 100s. I want Fall. I want low 80s. I want rain. I want a lot. LOL

Seriously, though. What is the outlook for Fall and Winter this year?
0 likes   
Taffy-SW Florida

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#11720 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:02 pm

Taffy wrote:The sun can't start waning soon enough. I just read that El Nino may not develop. Will we even have a Fall and Winter? This last Winter and Fall were not satisfying. It was to warm and dry. We haven't received enough rain this Summer in my area at least. I have been here since 1978. The climate here has certainly changed a lot since then. Yesterday it was 105 in my backyard, bright sun cooking us. Suddenly there was a nice shower out of nowhere with the sun still shining brightly. The temperature dropped to 95 but later climbed back up into the 100s. I want Fall. I want low 80s. I want rain. I want a lot. LOL

Seriously, though. What is the outlook for Fall and Winter this year?


Who knows. The past several years, I feel that our "first fronts" of fall have been arriving earlier and earlier, often early to mid October, which always gets people excited about winter, but then we get into December and January, and it's warm with very little in the way of substantial cool hits.

It's probably just due to the timing of the NAO, PNA and all that, but in the past, it often seems that if the fronts hold off longer for us, we're more likely to get really "cold" in December and January. This is what happened in the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11. It was warm all fall and then the NAO tanked at just the right time both years. If we go NAO negative in October and November, only to have it flip strongly in the other direction December-February, that's a winter-cancel for us. hahaha
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: A1A and 45 guests