Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Didn't a GFS run yesterday show a Cat 2/3 slamming Naples?

[gatorcane]

latest GFS model guidance shows possible 5+ inches of rain across SE Florida from the EGOM low event which is more than what previous runs were showing.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Does it ever happen like the models output.

[boca]

I doubt we will get 5+,maybe 2” if we’re lucky.

[gatorcane]

One thing looks near certain. The rainy season for South Florida looks like it will officially start tomorrow May 12th with the onset of the moisture surge from the Caribbean where the entire week looks quite moist. Median start date is May 21st so that would be a good 9 days ahead of schedule. Given SE Florida is seeing widespread drought conditions (some areas more extreme than others) having the rainy season start early will be a good thing.

[psyclone]

it looks like a heavy rain event on the east coast is getting more likely. we've seen the east coast do well with low pressure in the east gulf. FWIW per the folks at the CPC the heavy rain risk has expanded north as well.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

[AdamFirst]

The GFS certainly has some sort of atmospheric river setup for the next week over Peninsular Florida even before it develops the phantom storm. Could be going into the summer months in a rain surplus.

[gatorcane]

Rain finally arriving in SE Florida. Models were definitely off on timing as we saw little rain yesterday afternoon and last night. So the rainy season likely will officially start today May 13th. Could be quite rainy through rest of week with the moisture plume from Caribbean that sets up right over Florida.

[Taffy]

It began raining in Fort Myers at 1PM. I was absolutely giddy!!!!!!! It smelled so good. It was beautiful to watch every drop hit the ground.

[psyclone]

FWIW the CPC has returned to its earlier theme of very heavy rain on the east coast from the cape down to Miami with 7" of QPF...they've drastically cut back on areas farther west and north but these projections do tend to lurch around good a bit. In any case a dump fest still looks probable for much of the peninsula over the next week...rather unusual for mid May.

[NDG]

This might be one of the wettest starts to our wet season as the wet pattern will stick around around at least through the next couple of weeks

[TheStormExpert]

It’s pouring down rain and storming as I type here in NE Palm Beach County! Already received over 4 inches since the event began and 3.14 inches in total yesterday, this all bringing the May rainfall total to over 5 inches so far.

[AdamFirst]

Damage reported in Western Palm Beach County (The Acreage/Loxahatchee)

 https://twitter.com/WPTV/status/995989555575709697

[Michele B]

It began raining in Fort Myers at 1PM. I was absolutely giddy!!!!!!! It smelled so good. It was beautiful to watch every drop hit the ground.

I'm about 50 miles north, east of you.....it started raining here about an hour later, and still hasn't stopped!

Not complaining, mind you. Just noting it. I transplanted two trees this spring, so happy I don't have to drag the hoses around to water them anymore! lol

[Michele B]

This might be one of the wettest starts to our wet season as the wet pattern will stick around around at least through the next couple of weeks

Are those INCHES of rain?!?!?

I'm ok with it. It will drive the love bugs away! This threatened to be among the worst years. They were already thick as could be.

[chaser1]

This might be one of the wettest starts to our wet season as the wet pattern will stick around around at least through the next couple of weeks

Are those INCHES of rain?!?!?

I'm ok with it. It will drive the love bugs away! This threatened to be among the worst years. They were already thick as could be.

Yeah, if 12"-15" were to actually verify i'll be pulling out my kayak if I plan on driving south anytime soon As for the Love-Bugs, I couldn't believe how nasty they were driving across the state to Lake Placid the other day lol. Geez, I've always hated those things. I never really thought about it but i suppose the rain WOULD largely get rid of 'em??

On another note, nice pick up Adam regarding that F-0 damage over near Loxahatchee. I hadn't heard about that. I suppose this won't be the first reports of isolated tornadic damage over the state during the next day or two.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS going with 25 inches of rain for SE Florida over the next two weeks...

[Patrick99]

Been a lull in Miami-Dade since early morning, I even started to see blue sky. Filling in a little now though, maybe some destabilization.

[toad strangler]

Latest GFS going with 25 inches of rain for SE Florida over the next two weeks...

The CMC could not be more different than the GFS in terms of total precip LOL ...

[toad strangler]

Latest GFS going with 25 inches of rain for SE Florida over the next two weeks...

The CMC could not be more different than the GFS in terms of total precip LOL ...