Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Today looks like a similar pattern to yesterday. It's dead sunny in the Miami metro area, but radar is showing storms well inland over the Everglades, drifting east. The race is on......will they hold together and get here before too much daytime heating is lost?

Did not happen. Storms fell apart before they got here.

[chaser1]

Maybe a dumb question.......if I'm trying to figure out what the general thunderstorm motion will be for any given day, what level of the atmosphere should I really be looking at for best results?

Somehow, I have a feeling that the answer may be "it depends," but if any meteorologists could weigh in on this, it would be appreciated.

Not a dumb question at all. So, the quick and somewhat oversimplified answer is the 500mb level of the atmosphere. That can of course range up or down a bit but generally speaking the 500mb level is roughly 18,000'-20,000 feet elevation and considered the "mid-level" of our atmosphere and the level commonly responsible for pushing/moving developing thunderstorms along.

Lower base elevation (or diurnal) showers that come in on the surface breeze are often carried in by the lower (roughly 700mb-1000mb) levels but once these showers begin to develop vertically and begin to reach 20,000' and higher, here is where the broader core of the mid level winds begin to more broadly "grab" a maturing thunderstorm (or large area of convection) and push it in the general direction of that 500mb flow. Not the perfect example but when you think in terms of children playing football, tackling a child carrying the ball usually would mean grabbing him/her around their midsection which might only around 2' above the ground. In real life though, trying to tackle a 6' tall football player moving with a good deal of momentum around 2' off the ground might trip them up but the forward momentum will likely continue forward. Tackling a taller adult generally requires a momentum and grabbing hold around their mid-section to better exert control over their forward motion.

Of course we here in Florida may easily see thunderstorms that are able to reach well above 40,000-50,000' too. Within a fairly "flat" mid level pattern where steering is minimal, there are circumstances where the upper level winds that may range between 200mb-300mb may influence motion slightly. In those weird circumstance where the 500mb level is fairly "flat" or perhaps very very light in one direction, and yet where the upper level winds might be from the opposite direction.... where you might see a thunderstorm appear to be moving away (or mostly stationary) but the upper anvil appears to be moving or expanding toward you. That could induce a thunderstorm to expand it's overshooting tops and some rain to spread out a little.

Same general theory applies to motion of tropical storms. The less sophisticated "BAM Models" generally consist of a BAMS or "shallow" (direction of primarily surface trade winds approx 850mb-1000mb level), a BAMM "mid-level" (roughly the 400mb-750mb level), and a BAMD which takes into account the broader average flow of winds that take a slice of lower, mid level, and upper winds into account. Less vertically developed and weaker tropical storms might have their motion more affected by the lower part of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, deep and well developed hurricanes primarily track as a result of the 500mb (mid atmospheric) flow of the atmosphere. Ultimately, a combination of lower, to mid and upper level flow can influence short & long term track of a well developed hurricane especially when taking into account TUTT's and Cut-Off Lows. Those features can themselves be transient or more or less stationary.

This is very helpful. Thanks!

Anytime! Happy to help

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1278086914017501186



 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/1278654034069434368



 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1279008588405473281



 https://twitter.com/JohnnyCatts/status/1278869983259504642

[psyclone]

No doubt the warm shelf temps are contributing to these warm mins. we can't buy a low below 80 around tampa bay either. Makes perfect sense with UHI and near 90 degree water along with an onshore wind and minimal rain coverage. It was surprisingly comfy at the beach last night though. just enveloping deep tropical warmth but a good offsetting breeze tempered the heat and kept the no see ums out of business. it was great. After weeks of dry weather im hoping july 4th doesn't get washed out. but that is possible especially over parts of north florida

[psyclone]

It looks like rain chances for the peninsula are going lower and temps are going higher with another round of excessive heat on the way..

[Patrick99]

Could be a more active day over SFL - seeing showers developing already, that hasn't happened in weeks.

[toad strangler]

I really got HAMMERED by legit severe just now in Port St. Lucie. Torrential rains, straight line winds, and numerous CTG strikes all over. THe entire Treasure Coast looks like it got throttled pretty good. Will make for excellent firework weather in an hour or so!

[AdamFirst]

I really got HAMMERED by legit severe just now in Port St. Lucie. Torrential rains, straight line winds, and numerous CTG strikes all over. THe entire Treasure Coast looks like it got throttled pretty good. Will make for excellent firework weather in an hour or so!

I was out in River Ranch (midway between Yeehaw Junction and Lake Wales) so I missed this whopper of a storm; I caught the tail end on the way back. Incredible lightning driving down the Turnpike around Fort Pierce and it continued until I got home.

I lit a few fireworks - stuck around after to get a shot of the lightning.

 https://twitter.com/refreshingcoke/status/1279577641708933120

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1278086914017501186
https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/1278654034069434368
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1279008588405473281
https://twitter.com/JohnnyCatts/status/1278869983259504642

Unreal. My pool feels like a hot tub, it is not even refreshing to go in. Also doesn’t helped we went two weeks without any rain. Finally some fell this evening, not much though but enough to bring grass back. After so much, record-setting rain in May, what a change. Uncle SAL squashed all the rain during that two week period mostly.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1278086914017501186
https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/1278654034069434368
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1279008588405473281
https://twitter.com/JohnnyCatts/status/1278869983259504642

Unreal. My pool feels like a hot tub, it is not even refreshing to go in. Also doesn’t helped we went two weeks without any rain. Finally some fell this evening, not much though but enough to bring grass back. After so much, record-setting rain in May, what a change. Uncle SAL squashed all the rain during that two week period mostly.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1279428272246439939



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1279429739946684417



 https://twitter.com/SteveMacNBC6/status/1279393368880099328



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1279744172598202369



 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1281066042299748352

[MetroMike]

Tired of this boring ass west wind pattern here on the West coast. Reminds me of last August when it was in place for about 18 days.
Never seen crunchy grass in July here.
There is hope on the horizon as East wind pattern may set-up around the 16th so the say now
but may turn me into a liar as has happened before.

[psyclone]

we're getting some good shower development today. raining on my roof right now and the temp has dropped nicely..

[psyclone]

Peninsular Florida is roasting for the first third of July with many stations in the top 5 position so far..

https://sercc.com/perspectivesmap?var=a ... &type=rank

[gatorcane]

Tired of this boring ass west wind pattern here on the West coast. Reminds me of last August when it was in place for about 18 days.
Never seen crunchy grass in July here.
There is hope on the horizon as East wind pattern may set-up around the 16th so the say now
but may turn me into a liar as has happened before.

Exactly what I have been pointing out in the hurricane indicators thread = may not see a threat from the east this year.

[toad strangler]

Don't let the years that go by fool you. It will come again. Andrew has made South FL much much MUCH more ready to take on a RARE beast. That's what Andrew was. RARE. Andrew birthed the Florida Building Code and it has grown into the strictest and most cohesive mandated building code in the nation. Andrew changed everything and not only in S FL but the entire state. We saw this when the clock wound down as it always does and another beast slammed FL. Michael. Older infrastructure was decimated. But there were astounding success with post Andrew built to code areas. Dorian nearly one year ago was a close call with an Andrew / Michael return. It's coming. Just a matter of when & where.

Watch this and just listen to the complacency that abounded in many ... # BE PREPARED

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5CFFoN-pUE

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1277694653261926406



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1277695013015687170



 https://twitter.com/RMolleda/status/1278008746149437440



 https://twitter.com/PaulFox13/status/1277768716474814464



 https://twitter.com/threeputt23/status/1277698968038838272

[northjaxpro]

Going through another relentless heat wave now. It topped out at 98.4 degrees for the max temp at my locale.late yesterday. It was the fifth consecutive day here of at least 95 degrees measured
It was the hottest day here so far, although it is a strong possibility we may beat that today. Cecil Commerce in western Jax reached 100 degrees late yesterday. I think we will see a repeat today across the area and it may hit the century mark here at my weather station late today.

High Pressure ridge axis over Eastern Texas and the Northwestern GOM region is providing a very hot west wind flow across the our region. We have had relief with seabreeze-generated late afternoon and evening thuderstorms the past three nights to help temporarily to cool us off, but it only makes it the more muggy at night.

The silver lining in all of this is that we certainly are not in a drought. We are now running above average rainfall after a dry Spring.

Yeah, the dreaded dog days of Summer are painfully in full effect right now for sure!

[psyclone]

We're being promised a return to a "normal" summer patter by late week. I hope it's true as it will yield big storms on the west coast pushing into the gulf in the evening along with more sane low temps. We have had rumblings of this before only to have it yanked. hopefully it actually happens this time..

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope you get the east flow and the rain. I'm sick of all this rain on my side. Although globals are barking at a inverted trof/wave axis towards end of the week. They are fickle this time of year it could go poof but you'll get the sea breeze rain atleast.

[psyclone]

As promised the westerly wind is relaxing over the peninsula...a transition day with a (finally) normal easterly wind pattern setting up starting tomorrow. Hopefully some good late day boomers and rain cooled air (along with sub 80 lows) are on the docket.