Florida Weather

[StormingB81]

I live in Kissimmee. On Sat I had 4.5 inches at my house. Sunday I had 0.5 inches. and I had just over 2 inches yesterday totaling over 7 inches in three days. You can imagine what my yard looks like and there are still puddles of water all around. With another 50-60% today and more widespread tomorrow I may need to look into purchasing a boat soon lol

[chaser1]

It has not been wetter then normal dorainfall amounts for extreme south florida

I noticed the linked graph and saw the well below normal rainfall conditions over extreme south Florida and the Western Panhandle area. I checked out the National Weather Service for the Kendall-Tamiami station in South Miami Dade County, and saw that a 1/3 " rain fell on 4/13, with a total of .41" rain thus far this month, and at the moment are at a deviation of .62" of rain below normal for the month of April. I believe they were already at a deficit for the prior months of perhaps an inch.

The GFS may well not pan out, but I think the set up might cause a weak inverted trough to develop there's ast of N. Florida or off the Carolina coastline. If that were to occur with an increased Southeasterly feed of moisture, coupled with some deep southerly moisture between 850mb - 500mb, than picking up an inch or 2 of rainfall might well easily occur within a couple hours... let alone tbe rest of the month. There certainly isnt any debilitating upper level cap over the northern 2/3's of the state, and i'd wager for lower heigbts & cold temps aloft, assuming that forcasted strong low materializes, deepens, and parks its butt over Michigan as forcasted. It looks to kind of get blocked, and while theres only minimal apparent upper air support to drive this front down to Cuba... all it needs to do is drift itself south to the south/central florida region to serve as mechanism for precip, with such an upper air set up potentially "stuck for at least a few days. Granted, I'd guess the highest concentrations of rain would likely occur over a broad area of Central Florida. We'll see if it all materializes though....

[chaser1]

I live in Kissimmee. On Sat I had 4.5 inches at my house. Sunday I had 0.5 inches. and I had just over 2 inches yesterday totmoderate cboper 7 inches in three days. You can imagine what my yard looks like and there are still puddles of water all around. With another 50-60% today and more widespread tomorrow I may need to look into purchasing a boat soon lol

Tell me about it, LOL?! Yesterday I went to meet friends at 5:00pm for racquetball at my gym in Winter Park. When I came out a couple hours later, a small craft advisory was needed for blinding rain and the light to moderate chop in bay....er, rather Parking Lot waters

[psyclone]

KTPA registered a record high minimum temp for the date @ 74. normal is 63. meanwhile our surf temp is now in the low 80's...a full month ahead of normal and the earliest I've seen it so warm in my years here. very abnormal to experience such big temp anomalies on such a sustained basis.

[NDG]

And no real end in sight to the above average temps and humidity. But with the ensembles persistently showing the NAO going negative by next week we may get a break from at least the humidity by the end of the month, hopefully. Way too early for this, but I love that our summer beach season has begun early

[FireRat]

Earliest Summer I can recall, seriously!

I read somewhere on a south Florida web page a while back (I think it was NWS) that the earliest start of summer since records were kept in 1956, began on April 16, 1957. They defined "summer" as highs in the upper 80's with lows in the mid 70's and humidity.

I think we have challenged this, if not beat it by several days now.

It is sultry out there every day now, feels like April in say, equatorial regions...or like the drier hot days of June in these parts. It was 87 today here, was 91 a few days ago! Lows haven't dropped below 70 even here by the Everglades.

Will we hit 100 later this year? looks like we're heading that way

[TheStormExpert]

Any chance of seeing the official announcement that the rainy season has started? What was the earliest known official Florida rainy season start?

As of yesterday Dewpoints have been basically at or above the 70°F threshold, and for days now we've seen daily afternoon thunderstorms(although inland/west coast), as well as high temperatures in the mid/upper 80's regularly.



It's also weird to see the NWS Miami Officd use former Weather Channel Wx Symbols from 2005 and prior, ect.

[TheStormExpert]

And just as I suggested we may be entering the rainy season...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...MAY PATTERN IN APRIL - TOASTY WITH AFTERNOON TSTORMS...
...STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL FRI/SAT AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONGER THAN NORMAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA, WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO SOUTH FL, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PER GLOBAL H5 HEIGHT ANOMOLIES. WEAK TROUGHING WILL
SHIFT THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE HEIGHTS
BUILD AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENTAILS A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS...ALONG WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS.

ALONG WITH THE TOASTY CONDITIONS COMES THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY
BASIS GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. THE WIND FIELDS WILL
DICTATE WHERE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON. SOUNDS LIKE THE RAINY SEASON, DOESN`T IT?! TOO EARLY TO
SAY IF WE ARE IN IT OR NOT AS THE PATTERN COULD SHUT ITSELF OFF
FOR AWHILE. TIME WILL TELL.

THE TSTORM FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RIDE
OVER TOP THE RIDGE FRI-SAT...AND WITH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
A LIGHT ENOUGH WIND FLOW TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, AN
ACTIVE NEXT FEW DAYS IS ANTICIPATED. THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON`S ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FL...AS A MEAN SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW PREVAILS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CANNOT
DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE CELL POPPING UP AS WELL.

SOME DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO SOUTH FL ON SUN...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
LESSER TSTORM ACTION COMPARED TO SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT... MONDAY BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AS IT APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, IT WEAKENS, BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO
DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE STORMS MAY BE, BUT MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE VERY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LAKE REGION TO POSSIBLY AROUND NORTHERN MIAMI DADE.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

[NDG]

Is not out of the normal that during El Nino years rainy seasons in FL start a bit earlier most times, with the NAO going negative next week I would not be surprised that a drier pattern will move in for at least northern and possibly central FL towards the end of the month but if it does I am sure will be very temporary.
I was just talking to somebody the other day that about this time of the year my grass is usually drying up and dying because of the very strong sun and dry conditions, definitely nothing close to that happening this year.

[gatorcane]

Here is a good link from NWS Miami under Climate->more from the left pane of menu options on the homepage which defines what the rainy season is and also provides a table of when the rainy season has started each year all the way back to 1956 - and yes Apr 16th in 1956 is the earliest start:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=summer_season

Snippet from article below. Dew points are not quite high enough to justify the start of the rainy season but they are pretty darn close:

Definition of Summer Season

As stated above, the summer season is characterized by warm tempera- tures. Daily Maxima average in the upper 80s. but more significantly, the daily minima average in the middle 70s. Low temperatures rarely lower below the 70 degree level during the summer months. in addition to warm temperatures, high humidities prevail throughout the summer. The dew-point temperature is the best measure of moisture levels in Florida. During the summer period, the dew-point temperature remains in the lower to middle 70s. In addition, convection in the form of showers and thunderstorms is almost a daily occurrence during the summer. In an easterly wind regime, the precipitation occurs as late night and morning showers or thunderstorms over the coastal areas, and afternoon thunderstorms over the interior sections. In a westerly wind regime, afternoon thunderstorms affect interior and coastal areas alike. In light wind conditions, afternoon thunderstorms again develop over southeast Florida and affect most areas. Overall, the best indicators of summer season in southeast Florida are dew-point temperatures and minimum temperatures remaining in the 70s, and frequent daily rainfall[/quote].

[StormingB81]

Since Saturday I am over 8 inches. Couldn't even mow some of my lawn as it is a swamp. Last night we had less than a half inch of rain. Lowest rainfall of the rain that has fallen. I had only 1 day of no rain since Saturday.

[Bocadude85]

Hope we get some rainfall soon. The yard is a brown tinder box.

[TheStormExpert]

Same here in NE Palm Beach County where my neighborhood lakes are slowly drying up and yucky looking thanks to little to no rainfall over the past month at least. All the rainfall has been focused inland, around Lake-O, and on the west coast everyday since this summertime pattern began! Finally we should see a flip in which direction these showers/storms head today according to this graphic the NWS Office of Miami posted on their Twitter. Hopefully we see more days like this during the next 5-7 days to try and get our much needed rainfall.

[NDG]

yes, much better chance of rain for SE FL over the next few days as a frontal boundary gets closer and mid level disturbances track much closer to your area.

[FireRat]

Here is a good link from NWS Miami under Climate->more from the left pane of menu options on the homepage which defines what the rainy season is and also provides a table of when the rainy season has started each year all the way back to 1956 - and yes Apr 16th in 1956 is the earliest start:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=summer_season

.

Thanks for that link Gatorcane

That's exactly the site I was trying to remember earlier. Interesting to note that some of the earliest summer start years were immediately followed by some of the chilliest winters in S. Florida, such as 1958 and 1996.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami long-range discussion continues to indicate the summer-time pattern continuing and even more moisture available by mid-week:

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[psyclone]

we've had consistent highs well into the 80's, lows and dewpoints in the 70's and our coastal waters are now in the low 80's. the calendar may say otherwise but Summer is here. and everyday this warmth persists it becomes less anomalous. the beach is my best friend for the next 6 months.

[gatorcane]

I posted this in the indicators thread in the tropical forum, but you can see from this graphic that the waters across the Gulf and Western Atlantic are running above normal to much above normal with the lack of fronts for the last month.

[TheStormExpert]

Well here where I live in Palm Beach Gardens, FL we managed to get two-three quick downpours over the past 48hrs. or so and that was it! While the majority of Jupiter, FL(not too far north of me) managed to get a decent 2.5 inches of rain Friday afternoon. Got to love the nature of Florida's hit and miss thunderstorms!

Hopefully here where I live we have better luck during the expected numerous showers and storms forecasted for the Monday-Tuesday as well as the possibility of more rainfall Wednesday-Thursday before we are forecasted to dry out Friday through next weekend, but remain quite hot in the upper 80's/low 90's.

[northjaxpro]

Watching carefully for a potential of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening across the northern peninsula. The ingredients are all there today for this potential. Tornado watch already posted by the SPC for the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend region and I would anticipate that the watch will be expanded eastward this afternoon into the evening. Strong thunderstorms already occurring over there late this morning as a potent shortwave is moving northeast out of the NE GOM. This feature, combined with the west coast seabreeze pushing inland later today, and then the east coast seabreeze pushing inland to about the I-95 corridor in Northeast Florida, will collide to bring about strong storms later today.

Also, ample daytime heating with temps getting to about the mid-upper 80s will also provide the fuel to destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon. I will be watching closely this situation this afternoon. Meaured about 1.25 inches in the gauge yesterday in thunderstorms that moved through my locale. Yeah, the summer rainy season has kicked off in earnest here for sure almost a month ahead of schedule.