Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Still raining lightly and at the moment 49.4 degrees with northwest winds 10-15 mph. Currently measured just over 6 inches for the entire event since Sunday. A very impressive rain event for all of North and Central Florida.

Rain should end later today as the cold front finally pushes down through the rest of the state. Cool High Pressure will build in to give a very nice, cool Thanksgiving with lows in the 30s tomorrow morning and Friday morning and highs around 60 at my locale.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! For those traveling this holiday, please be safe!

[Sanibel]

2.5 inches. Pools in the yard. Much needed.

[SeGaBob]

Still raining lightly and at the moment 49.4 degrees with northwest winds 10-15 mph. Currently measured just over 6 inches for the entire event since Sunday. A very impressive rain event for all of North and Central Florida.

Rain should end later today as the cold front finally pushes down through the rest of the state. Cool High Pressure will build in to give a very nice, cool Thanksgiving with lows in the 30s tomorrow morning and Friday morning and highs around 60 at my locale.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! For those traveling this holiday, please be safe!

It rained right around 6 1/2 inches for the entire event here. (it was much needed too)
Happy Thanksgiving to you also.

[StormingB81]

Here near Disney we got 5.25 inches of rain

[asd123]

Teleconnections forecast: PNA spiking significantly in early December, NAO slightly positive and, AO slightly negative.

I am aware that the hugely positive PNA is highly favorable for cold air for Florida, the slightly negative AO slightly favorable for cold air for Florida, and the slightly positive NAO unfavorable for cold air for Florida. The question is, which teleconnection has more weight in delivering cold air to Florida, the PNA AO or NAO? What would be the outcome if only one teleconnection is very favorable for cold air, the other a little, and the other not favorable for cold air?

[NDG]

Teleconnections forecast: PNA spiking significantly in early December, NAO slightly positive and, AO slightly negative.

I am aware that the hugely positive PNA is highly favorable for cold air for Florida, the slightly negative AO slightly favorable for cold air for Florida, and the slightly positive NAO unfavorable for cold air for Florida. The question is, which teleconnection has more weight in delivering cold air to Florida, the PNA AO or NAO? What would be the outcome if only one teleconnection is very favorable for cold air, the other a little, and the other not favorable for cold air?

Yes, a positive PNA is favorable for cold air in FL, but at the end we need the NAO to be negative to drive down the core of the cold air down the spine of the Peninsula.
Good example was January of 2010, the coldest January in FL in years if not in the records. We saw both AO and NAO in the record negative category with the PNA on the positive category. Another example was earlier this month when saw the PNA positive with the AO way negative but the core of the record breaking Arctic air was not able to penetrate down to the I-4 corridor on southward because the NAO was only near neutral at best.
On a side note looking at the PNA forecast ensembles show it to go way positive but more towards the middle of December, not early December. Past a 7-10 day range they can be way off.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing that is for sure is that this is an impressive and rare IMO cold front with the NAO/AO being positive, and the PNA being negative. (All unfavorable for any sort of cool or cold air penetrating down into Florida. Just look at these relative humidity and dew point readings from late this morning!

Relative Humidity @ 10am


Dew Points @ 10am


Temperatures @ 10am


Sustained Winds @ 10am


NAO Forecast


AO Forecast


PNA Forecast

[asd123]

Teleconnections are unfavorable and the global models showing near to slightly above normal temps for Florida for the next two weeks. No really significant cold air shown beyond Friday morning.

What do you think is going to happen beyond two weeks? Is there any hope for any significant cold air for Florida in the next month?

There is a current strong SSW forming by the way.

Will we see anything like this winter:

(Image info: Link to license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Image courtesy of Craig ONeal on flickr.com):

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Heads up you TROPICAL *SIGH* FLORIDIANS! My pets are at my back door! Time for you to be skeered NEARS!!!! Sing Loud boys......I'm thinking of you!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcDLcQk ... freload=10

Now boys when a Low is formed here IN Saskatchewan I expect you to....

BE SURE TO CALL OUT *MY* NAME!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBV4gmw ... ZCVR-cdQzg

[Sanibel]

A bit cool. Used blankets last night. However, warm in the tropical sun on the porch. Expecting 81* on Sunday.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning! I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I am back home after spending the past couple of days with family out of town and had a wonderful holiday and stuffing myself with so much food of course...

33.3 degrees has been my recorded low temp so far this morning with widespread frost Actually, the temp currently is 34.4 degrees. It came up a degree unusually with ideal radiational cooling conditions approaching sunrise. It will be a close call as to whether another freeze will be achieved at my locale, but have about another 90 minutes for it to get there.

Temps are below freezing just west of me in Lake City and across the Big Bend region and across Southeast GA at this hour.

A beautiful weekend is in store and temps begin to moderate as the High Pressure axis which bought down to us a cool Thanksgiving will begin to move northeast to off the Mid Atlantic coast by Sunday morning. This will begin the onshore flow and by tomorrow, we will be back into the low 70s.

As NDG, asd123 and others have already astutely pointed out on this page, it appears for the next 10 days at least or possibly longer, we will not be seeing any arctic air intrusions heading for the peninsula. It is pooling up and recharging up across Central and Western Canada, but the teleconnections currently are not aligned favorably to plunge that arctic air deep into Dixie at this time.

So enjoy the warm-up for now. It has been a wild November to remember for this area. The peninsula had record cold at the very start of the month, and then North Florida's record shattering cold Nov 18-20. Severe weather also occured at my locale, and a extreme rainfall event occured all across the northern and central peninsula this past week, with many spots getting 4-7 inches. Also, record breaking high temps this past Tuesday across the peninsula as well, including Jax. Wild November for sure!

[NDG]

Looking back at the last 17 years Orlando may not end up with one of the coldest November (Nov 2012 coldest) but will end up with the wettest November in the last 17 years!
We really lucked out with seeing freezing temps if the Arctic airmass would have had mid and upper level support to push it down the spine of the Peninsula.
Now back to a more typical central FL wx for next week
As we head into the middle of the month the PNA is forecasted to go way positive but if the NAO stays at least slightly positive we may not get affected that much if another Arctic airmass pushes across the eastern US.

[asd123]

Looking back at the last 17 years Orlando may not end up with one of the coldest November (Nov 2012 coldest) but will end up with the wettest November in the last 17 years!
We really lucked out with seeing freezing temps if the Arctic airmass would have had mid and upper level support to push it down the spine of the Peninsula.
Now back to a more typical central FL wx for next week
As we head into the middle of the month the PNA is forecasted to go way positive but if the NAO stays at least slightly positive we may not get affected that much if another Arctic airmass pushes across the eastern US.

But what if the AO and PNA are very favorable for cold air for Florida and only the NAO doesn't cooperate. Could we still see an arctic air intrusion?

Also, what is your take beyond the two week period? When will the arctic air come for Florida?

[asd123]

Insight on the December weather pattern: Heads up for December 15-22!

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php ... start=1060

Go to second post, note the quote from Larry Cosgrove.

Larry Cosgrove used some powerful words to describe dec. 15-22: "...will send the brutal reality of winter cold as far south as Mexico and Cuba."

[psyclone]

while cold may or may not arrive later in the month we are in for a great stretch of weather starting now with warm days, mild nights and lots of sun. no need for heat or AC and perfect for being outdoors. this is the type of weather I wishcast...I hope the cold stays up north where it belongs.

[northjaxpro]

Looking back at the last 17 years Orlando may not end up with one of the coldest November (Nov 2012 coldest) but will end up with the wettest November in the last 17 years!
We really lucked out with seeing freezing temps if the Arctic airmass would have had mid and upper level support to push it down the spine of the Peninsula.
Now back to a more typical central FL wx for next week
As we head into the middle of the month the PNA is forecasted to go way positive but if the NAO stays at least slightly positive we may not get affected that much if another Arctic airmass pushes across the eastern US.

But what if the AO and PNA are very favorable for cold air for Florida and only the NAO doesn't cooperate. Could we still see an arctic air intrusion?



Also, what is your take beyond the two week period? When will the arctic air come for Florida?

The teleconnections we had for Nov 18-20 was a -AO and +PNA, but the NAO was neutral. North and Central Florida overall generally experiences a considerable cooldown when these indicators are present. Freezes, and even hard freezes, often occur mainly well north of the I-4 corridor across North Florida with this set-up, which happened the week before last. However, without a strongly negative NAO, we don't have the upper level flow straight out of the north and northwest from the polar regions to dive the coldest of the arctic air mass deep down the spine of the Florida peninsula. It would be quite unusual to see Central and South Florida get freezes without a - NAO.

asd123, keep an eye for the middle of the December. I think by then we may have a pattern shift with regards to the teleconnections for a potential return to a -AO and +PNA spike. But, all rides on the NAO. We have been really very fortunate here in Florida that the NAO hasn't tanked significantly to bring severe cold since January 2010. If the NAO doesn't dip significantly negative this winter, it generally bodes well for my neighbors down from the I-4 corridor and all areas southward as with regards to escaping freezes.

[asd123]

The teleconnections we had for Nov 18-20 was a -AO and +PNA, but the NAO was neutral. North and Central Florida overall generally experiences a considerable cooldown when these indicators are present. Freezes, and even hard freezes, often occur mainly well north of the I-4 corridor across North Florida with this set-up, which happened the week before last. However, without a strongly negative NAO, we don't have the upper level flow straight out of the north and northwest from the polar regions to dive the coldest of the arctic air mass deep down the spine of the Florida peninsula. It would be quite unusual to see Central and South Florida get freezes without a - NAO.

asd123, keep an eye for the middle of the December. I think by then we may have a pattern shift with regards to the teleconnections for a potential return to a -AO and +PNA spike. But, all rides on the NAO. We have been really very fortunate here in Florida that the NAO hasn't tanked significantly to bring severe cold since January 2010. If the NAO doesn't dip significantly negative this winter, it generally bodes well for my neighbors down from the I-4 corridor and all areas southward as with regards to escaping freezes.

I am definitely keeping an eye out for the second half of December. Did you see the quote from Larry Cosgrove? http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php ... start=1060 Go to second post, note the quote from Larry Cosgrove.

Those are some powerful words he used: "...will send the brutal reality of winter cold as far south as Mexico and Cuba."

Given what he has said, do you think this will happen:

(Image info: Link to license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Image courtesy of Craig ONeal on flickr.com):

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I read what Cosgrove mentioned. I would say that it is definitely plausible to see arctic air invade down across the Eastern CONUS during the period from December 15-22. However , for Florida as a whole to really get impacted by arctic cold, again the NAO has to go negative asd123. As I mentioned earlier, we haven't really seen the NAO tank significantly to bring arctic air deep into the Florida peninsula since January 2010.

I kind of look at Central and South Florida's extreme cold escapes as a blessing. I compare it to the peninsula missing getting impacted by major hurricanes going now towards 10 years.. However, at some point, our luck will run out eventually and either situation is going to happen.

A long ways to go though, and tomorrow marks the beginning of the meteorological start of the winter 2014-15 season.

[asd123]

Could this be the pattern changer: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... rizon.html

Who knows, NAO forecast might change in two weeks.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow:Yeah, I read what Cosgrove mentioned. I would say that it is definitely plausible to see arctic air invade down across the Eastern CONUS during the period from December 15-22. However , for Florida as a whole to really get impacted by arctic cold, again the NAO has to go negative asd123. As I mentioned earlier, we haven't really seen the NAO tank significantly to bring arctic air deep into the Florida peninsula since January 2010.

I kind of look at Central and South Florida's extreme cold escapes as a blessing. I compare it to the peninsula missing getting impacted by major hurricanes going now towards 10 years.. However, at some point, our luck will run out eventually and either situation is going to happen.

A long ways to go though, and tomorrow marks the beginning of the meteorological start of the winter 2014-15 season.

Actually December 2010 was the last time the NAO really tanked negative. I remember on the morning of December 14th, 2010 it got down to 30.3°F at my house here in Palm Beach Gardens, FL! I have proof as well.