Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Those temps look pretty cold but now that we're almost entering December the idea of more potent cold punching farther south is more reasonable. That forecast is pretty extreme so I'm skeptical at present but it is a legit concern since it's not too far out. Forecast highs have been lowered for Thanksgiving with this afternoon's packages so I'll be watching those trends in the coming days with interest. Another concern of greater interest to me (since it's closer) is SVR WX potential on Sunday. Much of the deep south is outlooked with a slight risk. In Florida this includes all of the state north of a line from about Flagler beach to Spring Hill. A warm air advection regime is already establishing itself so things could get interesting.

[StormingB81]

How about some snow for Christmas...lol Imagine those headlines...lol

[NDG]

Folks there is major cold weather forecasted by the models, having king Euro ECMWF and GFS support.

ECMWF showing cold average -4 850 mb temps for cfla, but strangely only low 30's for 2m temps. One would expect at those 850 mb temps upper 20s.

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF 850 mb
http://i61.tinypic.com/5mx3c2.png

GFS showing a widespread freeze for much of cfla. Thursday night

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits: GFS 2m
http://i60.tinypic.com/jj78rd.jpg

NDG northjaxpro and others, what is your take?

It will be a very rare event to see a freeze in central FL with the ensembles forecasting the NAO to go slightly positive along with the AO and for the PNA to go negative. IMO.

[asd123]

Folks there is major cold weather forecasted by the models, having king Euro ECMWF and GFS support.

ECMWF showing cold average -4 850 mb temps for cfla, but strangely only low 30's for 2m temps. One would expect at those 850 mb temps upper 20s.

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF 850 mb
http://i61.tinypic.com/5mx3c2.png

GFS showing a widespread freeze for much of cfla. Thursday night

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits: GFS 2m
http://i60.tinypic.com/jj78rd.jpg

NDG northjaxpro and others, what is your take?

It will be a very rare event to see a freeze in central FL with the ensembles forecasting the NAO to go slightly positive along with the AO and for the PNA to go negative. IMO.

Yeah, I was puzzled when I saw the cold ECMWF and GFS forecasts, and the very unfavorable AO, PNA, AO. How can this happen?
With a model forecast like shown, I would expect tanking AO and NAO, and a positive PNA.

[northjaxpro]

Well, we will see. I still don't think this upcoming cold spell will not be nowhere close to the record, extreme cold we had here in North Florida this week. I am surprised EURO went toward the GFS on recent runs, but I suspect the EURO will back off a bit on future runs with the colder trend. The NAO and AO has to go negative quite significantly for the peninsula as a whole to get a major cooldown, along with a +PNA. There are hints in the long range (early December) that this may occur. But , not yet present at this time. Most statewide NWS offices after observing their AFDs are going with a blend of EURO and GFS, which I agree with for now with the next cool spell coming in for Thanksgiving.

[TheStormExpert]

And just like that, the 0z GFS has trended much warmer with the Thanksgiving cold front.(If I'm reading the model right on the NOAA site)

Seems more realistic IMO, I'm betting the Euro will trend warmer as well on it's 0z run. I was skeptical about this cold air being forecasted to plunge deep into the peninsula all along with the positive NAO.

[asd123]

And just like that, the 0z GFS has trended much warmer with the Thanksgiving cold front.(If I'm reading the model right on the NOAA site)

Seems more realistic IMO, I'm betting the Euro will trend warmer as well on it's 0z run. I was skeptical about this cold air being forecasted to plunge deep into the peninsula all along with the positive NAO.

Since Tropical Tidbits is being DDoS'd at the moment try http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php

And yes, that Thanksgiving front has trended warmer.

[NDG]

Also the Euro dropped its crazy idea of freezing temps for central FL, their runs did not make sense with the current and forecasted teleconnections.

[NDG]

BTW, the Euro and GFS paint a very wet period from tomorrow through Wednesday for north FL and parts of central FL. Northjaxpro get your rain coat ready!
Wednesday the cool air may undercut the moisture so a rainy very cool day could be in tap for most of the peninsula.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah NDG the forecast looks very gloomy and wet for the next few days for sure up this way. Isentropic lift process is already underway this morning as a warm front, currently across South Florida, has already began moving northward. Rain has developed across the GOM into the west-central, and central peninsula, while the easterly flow over the northeast peninsula has bought showers onshore from Fernandina Beach south to Jax Beach.

More heavier rain is expected later tonight with strong warm air advection with the approach of the warm front and then again Sunday night as the warm front pushes north of Jax area. Also,there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late on Sunday, especially if we get the sun to come out during the day as dynamics appear favorable, along with increased instability in the warm sector, could lead to another round of severe weather late Sunday into Sunday evening.

We'll see another round of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms move in from the west late Monday with the approach of the cold front. However, observing the latest runs, it looks as if the front will nearly become stationary as shortwave energy out of the GOM apprently develops secondary Low Pressure area along the frontal boundary just off the SE US coast on Tuesday. This will keep rain chances across the northern peninsula into Tuesday and will gradually end from northwest to southeast as the cold front will have finally pushed through the Northeast Florida area. As NDG refrenced above, the front may hang up across north central peninsula into Wednesday, keeping rain /overrunning precip into Wednesday before upper shortwave energy will finally kick the front down the rest of the peninsula by late Wednesday. Some areas could receive up to more than 4 inches across portions of North Florida from now through Wednesday morning.

As expected, the runs this morning indeed backed off from the colder solutions from yesterday. Expecting temps in the 30s across North Florida on Thanksgiving morning across North Florida and max temps in the upper 50s to near 60. Looks like a crisp , cool Thanksgiving Day here, and cool conditions should be experienced down the remainder of the peninsula as well. Probably lows in the 40s across the central peninsula Thanksgiving morning and 50s down across the southern peninsula.

[HURRICANELONNY]

This scenario will likely
translate to increasing rainfall chances through the early portion
of the week along with temperatures remaining above average. A
return to normal or slightly cooler than normal temperatures will
remain possible for the upcoming Holiday.

Bummer. They took away the cold down here. Maybe it ill flip flop but as many said the indicators don't support a freeze this time.

[StormingB81]

Hmmm.....Thanksgiving Local weather here in Orlando is saying High of 53.......Weather Channel says 67....Thats a big difference Granted it may change a few times between now and then...lol

[TheStormExpert]

Just by watching the forecast being put out by the NWS, The Weather Channel, and local Mets. I'm assuming the models are continuing with their warmer trending?

Was really looking forward to a coldish, crisp Thanksgiving weekend but the positive NAO is all against that.

Still we MAY have a chance at cooler than average temps. for a few days (including Thanksgiving). But after that expect warmer than average temps. to show up the beginning of December for at least the foreseeable future, cause the positive NAO, trending positive AO, and trending negative PNA will basically kill any chance of a real cool down Florida could possibly have.

[gatorcane]

Very windy conditions across South Florida continue with the tight pressure gradient. In fact Pompano Beach Airpark recorded a 37mph wind gust at 6:53 this evening which is the highest wind gust I have seen across the SE Florida reporting stations.

[northjaxpro]

The deluge has begun here in Ja9ksonville. It statred raining at around 3:00 this morning and folks believe me, it has absolutely been pouring seemingly in buckets. Just took a very quick look at the rain gauge, and it has already surpassed 2 inches at my locale. I haven't checked yet the updated forecasts yet, but I woulod have to think that Flood Watches or even some urban flash flood advisories have been posted.

This is shaping up to be a major rain event for this area. We still have the warm front to move through, which will not occur here until tonight. There is also a potential for severe weather as well later today into tonight across North Florida into Southern Georgia. Helicity values and other dynamics look favorable for severe weather late today into tonight as the region will be entrenched firmly in the warm sector.

I will check back later, with rain reports and especially if severe weather is imminent. After what happened here this past Tuesday with severe weather, my vigilence has really been maximized to say the least.

[Sanibel]

Satellite makes it look like it really deepened as it got offshore into the Atlantic.

[northjaxpro]

The rain has ceased for now. Just over 2 and 1/3 inches in the gauge at my locale. Stopped raining near 8:00 this morning. However, the sun is now beginning the break out, and this will spell trouble later today into tonight. Increased sun will make create only aid in adding more instability and I really have concerns about the development of severe thunderstorms/possible tornadoes going into tonight across this area.

Strong southerly flow ongoing now and the temp is currently at about 74 degrees. May get to 80 today if the sun breaks contniues through this afternoon.

[psyclone]

SPC has really dialed back SVR WX potential for NE Florida. In fact this whole event has been a big underperformer starting yesterday in TX. I would imagine it will be tough sledding for severe wx on the I-10 corridor east of the TLH CWA.

[SeGaBob]

I don't live in Florida but it's the closest thread so I'm posting here...

We got around 2 1/4 inches of rain since it started raining earlier this morning. (Still a light drizzle going on) It's 64 now and it's supposed to warm to 70. There is severe weather potential here, but I'm not overly concerned about it just yet.

[asd123]

Pretty much the entire Florida Peninsula is under a very moist and unstable air mass:
Most of Central Florida temps is in the low to mid 80s, Central Florida CAPE values 2000-2500, high atmospheric moisture, and widespread LI values of -5 -6. Even an east coast seabreeze pushing inland! Also almost the entire peninsula minus the panhandle has dew points 70+. Overall, the entire peninsula is very unstable, and you know things will get crackling and pouring soon!

All images below courtesy of NWS NOAA:
Convective Parameters:


850 mb-650 mb Averaged RH and Winds