Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, a +PNA brings rising pressures to the U.S. Pacific region and at times up to Alaska. This set-up can bring amplivation of the polar jet stream to dip far south doen the Lee of the Rockies into the CONUS during the winter. Big Arctic Highs can drop south and east from the polar regions and depending on the amplication.of the upper level trough, can bring cold spells for the Florida peninsula.

[Ntxw]

For Florida yeah -PNA = southeast ridge. +PNA no southeast ridge! -NAO keeps it cold (+NAO things are transient) while the -AO provides cold air from the far north in simplest terms. So with a +PNA, at least the record persistent warmth won't be there.

[psyclone]

This weather...my goodness...just keep it coming. I can't believe how nice it is. I just want to be outside all the time. This is why I live in Florida.

[NDG]

I still think a +PNA with a +AO & +NAO just brings barely average temps for the FL Peninsula if not above average.
I was just looking at the sypnotic set up during the '82/'83 El Nino winter, very similar so far to this year, with mostly a positive NAO & AO during Nov-Jan time frame and a positive PNA during Dec-April period.
Officially that winter Orlando did not reported a freeze, it was a warm Nov & December then below average temps during Jan into early spring because of cloud cover and rains with periodical cool spells.

Edit: And BTW, even though the PNA is now positive heights are still above average over FL and forecasted to go down to barely average if not just above average over the next few days.

[psyclone]

Amazingly this was NOT the warmest November on record at Tampa. We had to settle for the silver...28 of the days featured above normal highs, 1 day was normal and 1 was below normal.

[NDG]

Same here in Orlando, 2nd warmest November.

[gatorcane]

Appears a lot of rain could be on the way for South Florida Thu and into Friday. NWS Miami snippet:

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTH FL AND BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS IS 6-12 HRS FASTER PUSHING THE
HEAVIER RAIN OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS BEING
USUALLY A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH FRONTS, MAY SIDE TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ECMWF. HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES. LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
EVENT, FORECAST MODEL PWATS ARE NEAR 2.2", WHICH IS VERY ANOMALOUS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SHOW
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS ALSO AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH OF THESE VALUES ARE MORE
NOTEWORTHY THAN THE EVENT THAT OCCURRED WITH A STALLED FRONT A
FEW WEEKENDS AGO. AN HWO MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL
CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, 0-1 KM HELICITY IS PROGEED TO BE NEAR 100
M2/S2 THURS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, WHICH IS
NOTEWORTHY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[HURRICANELONNY]

Gota love El Nino

[Ntxw]

Wasn't SE FL in a drought not too long ago? Eventually big El Nino wins out...

[AdamFirst]

Day 1-3 QPF forecasts 3-4 inches of rain for the southern peninsula. WPC also lists a slight chance for excessive rainfall for the southeast peninsula on Day 2 (Saturday)

[NDG]

Wasn't SE FL in a drought not too long ago? Eventually big El Nino wins out...

Yeap, SE FL had below average rains during the summer into October, persistent easterly winds kept the rains on the west coast of FL into Central FL.
Just last month it started being wetter than average, very unusual for them to see this much rain during the winter.

[gatorcane]

Wasn't SE FL in a drought not too long ago? Eventually big El Nino wins out...

Yep we were in a drought through much of the summer though things got better in August and into September.

Not surprised with all the rainfall we have been seeing in late fall with the super El Nino in place. A bit surprised it is still as warm as it is...but wouldn't surprise me if we see the cooler air in the Jan-Feb timeframe with above normal rainfall continuing through the winter months.

[gatorcane]

Here comes all the rain. Calendar says Dec 3rd, so quite an unusual setup for December, the super el nino rears its ugly head again

[HURRICANELONNY]

Here comes all the rain. Calendar says Dec 3rd, so quite an unusual setup for December, the super el nino rears its ugly head again

I remember the radar in Feb. 98. I was in the gym and the TV went to weather. A mass of red convection was heading the same direction to S. Fl. I covered my motorcycle under the parking garage. The winds were probably 50-60 mph that night. Knocked over my 600lb bike and bent the handle bars. Of course that was a super El Nino to.

[TheStormExpert]

So far here in Northeast Palm Beaxh County where we are expected to see around 2-5 inches of rain over the next 24-48hrs. we've received very little rainfall so far today with whatever rains being confined to the morning hours.

Something tells me that this heavy rain event might be a bust for some. Though it's still impressive to see any bit of rainfall this time of year.

[TheStormExpert]

Wasn't SE FL in a drought not too long ago? Eventually big El Nino wins out...

Yep we were in a drought through much of the summer though things got better in August and into September.

Not surprised with all the rainfall we have been seeing in late fall with the super El Nino in place. A bit surprised it is still as warm as it is...but wouldn't surprise me if we see the cooler air in the Jan-Feb timeframe with above normal rainfall continuing through the winter months.

The last El Niño Winter(09-10) saw a warm November-December I believe prior to the record breaking cold January-March 2010. I recall mid-December 2009 having highs near 90* for several days! This was just a few weeks before the thermometer crashed.

[gatorcane]

Ah yes I remember that very well...warm December then right around the new year, the thermometer tanked with a very prolonged period of far below normal temps for SE Florida with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s and even some mixed precip reported on one of those days I thought even down into Broward County. I don't think we went about 60F for nearly 10 consecutive days..am I remembering that correctly?

[northjaxpro]

Oh yeah, the 2009-10 El Nino winter was really something. I remember it very well. It was one of the coldest winters here across most of Florida since the historic 1977-78 winter, which was the coldest ever on record across many areas of the South and Eastern portions of the CONUS. Frozen precip occurred downstate across central and southern peninsula! As gatorcane points out above, the winter of 2009-10 started out very warm , just like we are experiencing currently. A lot depends on the AO and NAO index, but we will see how long we go this winter before the first major cold spell will arrive. So far, no freeze or frost has occurred in most of the northern peninsula to this point..........







The cold Arctic air reached as far south as Florida; in early January 2010 it suffered unaccustomed cold and frosts.




This was later followed by the cold air mixing with air coming from the Gulf of Mexico, caused by El Nino in the Pacific, carrying moisture that resulted in snow and ice coating Florida's roadways and fields.

Both the months of January 2010 and February 2010 were the 6th coldest on record for Tampa (Florida) since records began in 1890. (December was around normal.) For Miami Beach (Florida) it was the coldest winter on record.


Florida overall had its fourth coldest February. The first 3 months of 2010 were the coldest ever reported in Miami Beach, Naples, and West Palm Beach, and was among the coldest winters ever for Ft. Lauderdale and Miami. El Nino conditions also resulted in the coldest March on record in Miami Beach; second coldest in West Palm Beach. It also remained wet over much of Florida.


For the period of December, January & February it was the coldest three-month stretch ever recorded for Florida overall; its coldest winter on record

[NDG]

Wasn't SE FL in a drought not too long ago? Eventually big El Nino wins out...

Yep we were in a drought through much of the summer though things got better in August and into September.

Not surprised with all the rainfall we have been seeing in late fall with the super El Nino in place. A bit surprised it is still as warm as it is...but wouldn't surprise me if we see the cooler air in the Jan-Feb timeframe with above normal rainfall continuing through the winter months.

The last El Niño Winter(09-10) saw a warm November-December I believe prior to the record breaking cold January-March 2010. I recall mid-December 2009 having highs near 90* for several days! This was just a few weeks before the thermometer crashed.

November this year was much warmer than Nov '09 which was just slightly above average compared to this year which widspread 3-6 degrees above average reported across the State.
Unless the AO and NAO start crashing soon this upcoming Jan-Feb will not be anything close to Jan-Feb 2010. Looking at the CFSv2 forecast it keeps above average heights for the eastern US through at least January so I would not doubt that average to above average temps will continue to dominate the weather across the FL Peninsula through at least January, of course along with a wet pattern from time to time keeping high temperatures lower because of clouds and precip.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I would like to see a bit of cool weather this winter. If we go through the winter season with hardly any to no freezes, I can't imagine how bad the mosquitoes and bugs are going to be heading into 2016. We need at least some cold weather to kill them off. Also, I am waiting for the first frost to come in which I can finally stop mowing the lawn, at least for a couple of months or so....