STORM2K

Climate Prediction Center for the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook is still status quo for Florida. Above normal temps and normal precip. Nothing interesting going on overall. One thing that we have to look forward to is the eclipse on the 21st, I am stoked about that.

This summer in West Central Fl has been dominated by dry slots of air above the surface that has suppressed normal convection.
Thunderstorm forecasts have not been dependable because of this.
Day to day changes with his feature can affect weather one location gets rain or not. Even with the normal seabreeze interactions storms are not a given on the West coast in the late aft/evenings with these pesky dry pockets.

Same down here.......overall the coverage of afternoon storms is just way down.

Isn't it hot enough, with enough low-level humidity, to "break the cap" and get some good strong storms going, though? I would think so but it just doesn't happen this year. Can't recall many summers when I've been in *so few* thunderstorms.

Yeah this summer along with the past couple of summers have been really void of your typical afternoon thunderstorm activity across SE Florida. We just don't seem to be getting on the pattern where we get storms moving from SW to NE that often (requires a trough to be in place along the Eastern CONUS). It's been very dry and hot with SAL moving in periodically from the east. A number of record high lows have been set as well. So again the Bermuda High ridge is strong this year. Definitely looking towards the east again as hurricane season ramps up.

Lots of rainfall here in coastal Palm Beach County all due to a tropical wave moving through. We haven't got too many of these waves in years past like we used to but we forget that even waves can pack a good punch too. We will see what the wave associated with 92l does in a couple of days.

this summer is once again featuring stupid heat owing to increased insolation as result of decreased convection. The high reached 97 @ KTPA today while surface dews plunged to the mid 60's...very unusual for August...and it's fairly dry here. the radar today was devoid of precip...again unheard for a late august day. We're on track for more than 100 90 degree days. The last 2 summers featured fairly skimpy daily convection and excessive heat that eventually busted by a massive rain event or tropical system. Hermine unloaded on us after a similar pattern last year. And the sea temps around here are near 90 so it's a loaded cannon that's eventually bound to unload.

I havw lived in Lee County for 40 years. I don't care for this new climate change.

well we've definitely juiced up and gotten back to normal. convective trends over west central florida are worth monitoring. very heavy rain and flash flooding is occurring south of tampa bay with new convection blossoming over the bay area headed south. heavy rain may well devlop north into southern Pinellas county...this could be a pretty good torrential rain event for someone...which is what I was alluding to the other day..when it gets too hot (water temps near 90 and coastal lows near 80)...something eventually rips loose and takes the edge off the heat.

It's weird, over the last week, I don't really feel that it has rained that "hard" for that long at any point down here in Miami-Dade, but some of the overall 5-day rainfall totals are looking fairly impressive and obviously running counter to my perception.

we've got 3 day totals of 20"+ in Manatee county and more torrential rain unleashing on west central florida. we should get back to a more normal weather pattern soon.

Finally back to normal. Lots of flooded communities in Lee County/Fort Myers and Cape Coral areas.

It was a pleasure to have no rain yesterday and so far today, Wednesday. I long for Fall now.

Some training rains this morning in the Florida Panhandle this morning mainly in the Ft. Walton area now shifting east now building in the Panama City area.

wettest day of the season so far for me today with a 6" deluge. the gulf is just a bubbling cauldron.

This stalled front is just training rain into central and portions of northeast Florida ahead of Irma impacts which will be felt Sunday. Might have even more worry about flooding. A portion of northeast Saint John's county just recorded 4.5 inches of rain this afternoon. Although it is a front it feels a lot like nor'easter conditions now.

Essentially., we are getting our first full fledged early Fall-like noreasyer here across Northeast Florida now. It will only get worst as the gradient will increase from here on with the approach of Irma from the south and the HP ridge building down off the Northeast U.S. coast.

Models are showing upwards to 5 inches of rain through Sunday morning just with this nor'easter, long before the real deal arrives here with Irma beginning Sunday evening. They are calling for 5-7 inches of rainfall associated with Irma in localized areas from Sunday afternoon into late Monday afternoon time frame as Irma exits the region.

ava_ati wrote:This stalled front is just training rain into central and portions of northeast Florida ahead of Irma impacts which will be felt Sunday. Might have even more worry about flooding. A portion of northeast Saint John's county just recorded 4.5 inches of rain this afternoon. Although it is a front it feels a lot like nor'easter conditions now.

Training cells dumping heavy rain in localized spots. That is a lot of rain in such a very short time. This is strong convergence , which can occur during these nor'easter events. More rain expected tomorrow with this nor'easter.

northjaxpro wrote:

ava_ati wrote:This stalled front is just training rain into central and portions of northeast Florida ahead of Irma impacts which will be felt Sunday. Might have even more worry about flooding. A portion of northeast Saint John's county just recorded 4.5 inches of rain this afternoon. Although it is a front it feels a lot like nor'easter conditions now.

Training cells dumping heavy rain in localized spots. That is a lot of rain in such a very short time. This is strong convergence , which can occur during these nor'easter events. More rain expected tomorrow with this nor'easter.

Yea this is an eerily similar event to what we experienced last year with Matthew. Obviously Matthew took a different track but a very familiar feeling. I'm suspecting this lack of calm before the storm will exacerbate the wind effects we see.

Also, the additional rain this weekend is going to loosen the soil even more, and that will be a huge concern for trees being toppled by the strong tropical storm and hurricane winds impacting Northeast Glorida when Irma moves through Sunday afternoon_ late Monday period.

Getting a little worried about the rain shield forming north of Irma, not really banding just 400 miles of moderate to heavy rain.

While things are looking better as far as Maria impacting Florida, getting concerned we will see a serious threat from the Caribbean in October especially since we are leaning towards La Niña and we seem to be in a hyperactive Atlantic.