STORM2K

Long range ECMWF and super long-range GFS show a big time cool down to downright cold pattern for the Eastern 2/3 of the US including Florida into Thanksgiving.

Check this out for Thanksgiving:


Look at that trough on the 12Z ECMWF:

Bring it on gatorcane these cooler temps which will probably slowly disappear with later runs.You know the drill.

As long as we are in a La Niña pattern the cold fronts will just be weak wind shifts to the NE and little to no cool down.Look at the latest NWS Miami discussion.

Yes that's next week boca. But thanksgiving week could be a big drop. If it holds as you can see farther up on the post the NAO/AO is progged to go neg. and the PNA might at least be neutral. It might be short lived because of La NIna but we can still get a cold shot now and then.

A big storm in the eastern lakes to the northeast usually brings a shot of cold air to us. a sharp but perhaps transient hit of chilly air looks likely just before Thanksgiving.

Well, we shall see. I want to see the GFS on future runs. But, if the NAO can dip negative in the next couple of weeks, we may possibly see a pretty good cold shot across the CONUS and into the Florida peninsula by Thanksgiving time.

It is just about that time for our first freeze of the season to occur here right around the third week of November on average anyway, so this would be right about on schedule if this cold spell manifests.

Pretty good consensus now that the NAO/AO will indeed go negative within the next 2 weeks. The question remains though how negative? This will be the difference between a glancing blow and something more significant or even prolonged like the GFS is hinting at. It also helps to see consensus that the PNA should gradually go positive.

psyclone wrote:A big storm in the eastern lakes to the northeast usually brings a shot of cold air to us. a sharp but perhaps transient hit of chilly air looks likely just before Thanksgiving.

MANY of the past Thanksgivings have featured a significant Winter Storm in the Eastern U.S., along with many of those same years featuring a seasonably cool or even cold Thanksgiving for all of Florida. Mother Nature seems to know when it's Thanksgiving no matter what date it falls on, now Christmas is another story!

According to the chart posted by Dr. Jeff Masters. We could pull out a cool winter with a NAO-/La Nina.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/la-ni ... rtheast-us

HURRICANELONNY wrote:According to the chart posted by Dr. Jeff Masters. We could pull out a cool winter with a NAO-/La Nina.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/la-ni ... rtheast-us

Maybe Dec and Jan cool shots,but overall the winter looks to be above average according to the general global graphic for Florida.

I agree mike. The chances of a NAO- all winter are slim to none. But you never know. Hell last year was a weak La Nina and California got soaked. So you never know.

I think this winter we will get weak fronts that winds will shift to the NE as soon as the fronts go thru,the only way Florida will get cold is from a NW wind which in a progressive pattern won't really happen.

boca wrote:I think this winter we will get weak fronts that winds will shift to the NE as soon as the fronts go thru,the only way Florida will get cold is from a NW wind which in a progressive pattern won't really happen.

Same pattern as last winter. I’ll take what I can get as any bit of cooler weather is better than none. Last winter it never got below 45 here in West Palm just to put in perspective how mild the winter was. So far we’ve bottomed out to near 50 on October 30th.

GFS going well below normal Thanksgiving weekend:

gatorcane wrote:GFS going well below normal Thanksgiving weekend:

I'm not buying anything the GFS throws at us in terms of cooler/colder weather in the long-range as it is just as bad with these like it is with the phantom storms or over-intensifying hurricanes.

GFS is probably a bit overdone on the low temps, but there is model agreement we will have some favorable Turkey Day weather here in FL:

ECMWF 00z


GFS 00z


CMC 00z

Also watch for the Greenland block pattern setting up next week (high pressure system strengthening over Greenland, with another high pressure system over the NW CONUS, forcing the polar jet stream to make a sharp, southward dive over the E CONUS). That is a common pattern when the North Atlantic oscillation goes negative (as it's forecast to do next week). Pressures across the polar region are typically higher than normal, displacing the jet stream well the south of it's usual position.

Latest Teleconnections update from this morning forecasts the NAO/AO to go more negative.

12Z GFS is advertising a rather chilly Thanksgiving week for Florida starting Sun/Mon and lasting through Thanksgiving through the rest of November with reinforcing shots of colder air. Could be the coldest Thanksgiving in many years with below to much below normal temperatures for an extended period of time if this materializes

12z Euro not enthusiastic for Florida in terms of cooler/colder weather is concerned, keeps the core into the Mid-Atlantic and NE through Thanksgiving day.



The long-range outlook still shows cooler than normal temperatures to be expected across the Eastern U.S. including Florida.