STORM2K

an extended period of temps below normal looks likely at this point with the first front passing by this weekend. Looks like a sub 70 high for thanksgiving is possible in central florida. I'm looking forward to some crisp weather for fireplaces, firepits, holiday cooking and gatherings.

The GFS continues to insist on a stretch of below normal to much below normal temps for Florida with slight moderations between fronts starting Sunday night. Looks like low 40s make it down into Central Florida Sunday night followed by mid 40s Tues night. Looks like low 40s again Thanksgiving night and mid 40s for Central Florida Friday night. Then way out in the long-range we see upper 30s into Central Florida on Nov 28th...highs below normal through this time period as well.

This cold weather will definitely make it feel like the holidays across Florida but you wonder if this below normal weather is portending a potent freeze to finally hit deep into Florida this winter. It's been many years since a deep freeze has penetrated the state (I think 7 years?) so we are due especially when looking at the Central Florida freeze-prone climate zones.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day does not show anything but normal temps across FL.
Don't know if this forecast is favoring one solution or not.

18z GFS much warmer with next weeks cool front, guess the negative NAO won’t do much for us like it did late last month.

Oh it's coming...........
Long term (thursday night-monday)...long range model solutions
show fair agreement in bringing a stronger cold front into South
Florida later this weekend into early next week. Timing issues
remain between GFS and European model (ecmwf) with the later showing an Eta model early
next week while GFS favors the weekend. It is still early to
assess the specific potential impacts associated with this fropa,
but both models agree in depicting a significant drop in
temperatures by early next week as drier cold air advection takes
place.

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Oh it's coming...........
Long term (thursday night-monday)...long range model solutions
show fair agreement in bringing a stronger cold front into South
Florida later this weekend into early next week. Timing issues
remain between GFS and European model (ecmwf) with the later showing an Eta model early
next week while GFS favors the weekend. It is still early to
assess the specific potential impacts associated with this fropa,
but both models agree in depicting a significant drop in
temperatures by early next week as drier cold air advection takes
place.

The discussion was made though in the afternoon before the 18z GFS ran. I’m hoping you’re right though.

gatorcane wrote:The GFS continues to insist on a stretch of below normal to much below normal temps for Florida with slight moderations between fronts starting Sunday night. Looks like low 40s make it down into Central Florida Sunday night followed by mid 40s Tues night. Looks like low 40s again Thanksgiving night and mid 40s for Central Florida Friday night. Then way out in the long-range we see upper 30s into Central Florida on Nov 28th...highs below normal through this time period as well.

This cold weather will definitely make it feel like the holidays across Florida but you wonder if this below normal weather is portending a potent freeze to finally hit deep into Florida this winter. It's been many years since a deep freeze has penetrated the state (I think 7 years?) so we are due especially when looking at the Central Florida freeze-prone climate zones.

Don't see any prolonged cold snaps herein FL the ECMWF shows summertime for turkey day all the cold remains N. GFS continues to trend warmer all i see is 1 solid cold front after the holiday. We shall see

12z GFS now dropping the Thanksgiving/Black Friday cold front. The pattern is just WAY TOO PROGRESSIVE!

Last couple runs of the GFS have had a 180 degree flip flop in the mid layer flow. For days it has been showing big time troughing in the East Conus for mid next week with a big mid level ridge out west. Last couple runs have reversed that entirely, and show all the troughing in the West?? While this may well occur, i'm thinking that this solution will continue to be advertised for another couple of runs but by tomm., i'm thinking that the GFS will begin to swing back to some version of its prior long term 500mb forecast of ridging in the west and troughing in the east. Guess we'll have to give it a bit more time to see which pattern will emerge.

chaser1 wrote:Last couple runs of the GFS have had a 180 degree flip flop in the mid layer flow. For days it has been showing big time troughing in the East Conus for mid next week with a big mid level ridge out west. Last couple runs have reversed that entirely, and show all the troughing in the West?? While this may well occur, i'm thinking that this solution will continue to be advertised for another couple of runs but by tomm., i'm thinking that the GFS will begin to swing back to some version of its prior long term 500mb forecast of ridging in the west and troughing in the east. Guess we'll have to give it a bit more time to see which pattern will emerge.

It’s hard to say. You’d think with the kind of negative NAO we will see next week that there would be some short of deep trough in the Eastern U.S. Yes it’s not very negative but the only thing holding a deep trough from carving out in the Eastern U.S. back may be a negative PNA.

gatorcane wrote:The GFS continues to insist on a stretch of below normal to much below normal temps for Florida with slight moderations between fronts starting Sunday night. Looks like low 40s make it down into Central Florida Sunday night followed by mid 40s Tues night. Looks like low 40s again Thanksgiving night and mid 40s for Central Florida Friday night. Then way out in the long-range we see upper 30s into Central Florida on Nov 28th...highs below normal through this time period as well.

This cold weather will definitely make it feel like the holidays across Florida but you wonder if this below normal weather is portending a potent freeze to finally hit deep into Florida this winter. It's been many years since a deep freeze has penetrated the state (I think 7 years?) so we are due especially when looking at the Central Florida freeze-prone climate zones.

I get the sense over the past couple decades or so that whenever we have a few early-season cool shots, come late December into January that same winter, precisely the time when these freezes can legitimately occur, what typically happens is that the NAO more or less flips positive for most of that time and it ends up being a warm January. It's almost as if we only have so many bullets in the old cold front gun, and if we use most of them up in October and November, well then, tough toots for January. Whereas I feel that prior to our coldest Christmas-January periods, we often had more prolonged warm weather October into mid December, then the NAO flips negative. I'm sure this isn't exact science, but just off the top of my head, I bet if someone went to the trouble to crunch the numbers, some correlation could be found.

ECMWF- Full blown summer up and down the eastcoast thx giving weekend.

When we are in a La Niña it's so progressive that if we get a cold front the wind shifts to the NE right after passage and our low temps never get below 60 or 65

You need that PNA to go way positive to get any big effects from the upcoming negative NA & AO for us in central & southern FL, otherwise the shots of cooler air will be very progressive with winds switching off of the Atlantic Ocean really quick after a frontal passage.

Models have definitely backed off the chill but the weather we're having right now (at least here in west central Florida) is nothing short of spectacular with sunny warm days and clear cool nights. A normal temp regime for Thanksgiving would represent a dramatic improvement over the recent hot/humid ones. I'll take it

Damn talk about a let down. Where did it go. Models flipped..

A cold
front will be working its way down the peninsula with the GFS
showing a weak cold front passage through South Florida Sunday
night. On the other hand the European model (ecmwf) shows the front getting into
South Florida but not quite making a clean passage, stalling
across the southern end of the peninsula Monday into Tuesday.
Current forecast leans towards front stalling bringing a slight
chance of showers to the area and temps around or just below
normal for this time of year. Will continue to monitor model
trends as we approach the weekend.

Same thing happened last year. Models showed some much below normal temperatures for Florida in the long-range for Thanksgiving but then backed off considerably as we got closer. To be fair the ECMWF did well not showing the cold this time better than the GFS. Still the weather looks to be on the cool side with very pleasant days ahead especially further north on the pensinula you go as the front may hang around the southern part.

77 over 51 @ KTPA right now. exquisite weather.

Well, like I said a few posts ago..... it looks as if the pattern over the S.E. Conus (and Florida) is appearing to revert to the previously advertised "cool down". Sure it may not exactly be the text book sharp diving cold fronts coming through but just look at the 500 mb height falls over the Southeast?? Even with Northeasterly winds for much of the week, the surface gradient appears to get a tad stronger as we approach Thanksgiving and high pressure from the central plains appears to be building southeastward so our winds might begin to back a bit. Its a weird pattern that would not generally cause day time temps to be all that cool, except that both the GFS and EURO seems to favor some Gulf mid to upper level feature to develop, thus causing a good deal of rain and cloudiness for south and central Florida around the holiday. Then, pressures even fall at the surface too. I'd say it'll be breezy, drizzly, and rather cool given the cloud-cover during the days, with night-time lows fairly cool given the really low mid level heights. Heck, i'm chilly going outside here in the Orlando area now.... at 57 degrees with a breeze. It might not turn "cold" with the appearant pattern next week, but i'd bet it'll be on the brisk side. Meanwhile, north Florida and the Panhandle look to be fairly chilly for a good part of next week. Hoping we all have a Happy "Dank"s-Giving!

I stand corrected LOL.......... If the new 0Z EURO is right, then those of you who were yearning for a serious cold front, might just get one a couple days past Thanksgiving

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0