STORM2K

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. Yesterday's forecast was a big bust here in the immediate Orlando area, with forecasters calling for 2-3" of rain, most areas in the city only received a few hundredths of an inch. I believe it was the European model that was forecasting so much rain for the I-4 corridor that the forecasters were going by, in the meantime the HRRR did a very good job of forecasting the heavy rains staying north of Orlando. I was a happy camper that the rainy forecast busted, my back yard roast went on without having weather problems.

Maybe and that's a big maybe. We get a shot of cold air in mid December. Just looking at the teleconnections.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

8-14 day has flipped decidedly to below normal across the east so big changes are probably on the way starting after the first week of December.

Well with the NAO just barely being negative the next 2 weeks along with the PNA barely being positive it raises an eyebrow but still not getting my hopes up just yet.

I'm becoming increasingly confident that a large chunk of Florida will see at least a couple nights of 30's with highs struggling to reach mid 60's on or after Dec. 7th. EURO and GFS models around this time as well as longer range suggests a (at least temporary) shift to perhaps a less progressive pattern with sharp troughing over the E. CONUS and below normal temps for the entire Southeast and Florida. Bring it on!!

Yes, I just glanced at long range guidance and the Eastern and Southeastern CONUS looks to get quite chilly as we head into the second week of December. NAO will dip negative the next couple of weeks and hopefully we will get some nice holiday cool weather the next couple of weeks. I am feeling rather confident we probably will finally see the first freeze of this Fall/Winter across North Florida the week of Dec 10 -16, or possibly sooner behind the upcoming cold front moving into Jax area next week.

Hmmm on the GFS it seems the brount of the cold remains north of Florida. Nothing brutal from what I see some 40s and 50s no big deal. Watch it trend warmer lol

SFLcane wrote:Hmmm on the GFS it seems the brount of the cold remains north of Florida. Nothing brutal from what I see some 40s and 50s no big deal. Watch it trend warmer lol

Guidance will trend colder as time progresses my friend. Still feel confident we will see first freeze here in Jax by mid-December.

The chill is coming...I have zero doubt on that. That late October front gave me a sense that this year will be different than the last 2. Let's watch this unfold:)

Again sticking with my thoughts the real cold stuff stays near Tallahassee never really makes it to SFL. We shall see

The teleconections might indeed indicate a cooler pattern coming up over the next couple of weeks but how cold for FL is still upon the air, I just don’t believe models past their 5 day range forecast, they have been horrible including the Euro.

It would be nice to get colder even down here in South Florida but it's been so long, I'm with SFlcane on this one about trending warmer until the cold or cooler air no longer exists.

A cooler pattern is highly probable at this point...even for south florida. it doesn't necessarily mean cold or freeze potential but it will represent a big change from the current regime and certainly the past 2 Decembers. Here along the I-4 corridor I'm expecting multiple days with maxes in the 60's and lows in the 40's with a possibility of 1 day of sub 60 highs....just a gut guess at this point. Nevertheless should that happen it will be nice, crisp and invigorating...something that's been decidedly lacking in recent years.

I’m not buying the cooler weather pattern. The NAO is forecasted to go now positive a bit.

psyclone wrote:A cooler pattern is highly probable at this point...even for south florida. it doesn't necessarily mean cold or freeze potential but it will represent a big change from the current regime and certainly the past 2 Decembers. Here along the I-4 corridor I'm expecting multiple days with maxes in the 60's and lows in the 40's with a possibility of 1 day of sub 60 highs....just a gut guess at this point. Nevertheless should that happen it will be nice, crisp and invigorating...something that's been decidedly lacking in recent years.

No change here it’s been generally coolish at night abviously depending on your particular location closer to the coast or inland last few weeks generally speaking. It’s not gonna feel anything like Xmas around here that’s for sure.

SFLcane wrote:

psyclone wrote:A cooler pattern is highly probable at this point...even for south florida. it doesn't necessarily mean cold or freeze potential but it will represent a big change from the current regime and certainly the past 2 Decembers. Here along the I-4 corridor I'm expecting multiple days with maxes in the 60's and lows in the 40's with a possibility of 1 day of sub 60 highs....just a gut guess at this point. Nevertheless should that happen it will be nice, crisp and invigorating...something that's been decidedly lacking in recent years.

No change here it’s been generally coolish at night abviously depending on your particular location closer to the coast or inland last few weeks generally speaking. It’s not gonna feel anything like Xmas around here that’s for sure.

What should Xmas feel like in south Florida? It's probably gonna be at least relatively balmy. It's why you have big tall coconut palms and royals down there. Even from central florida it's a different world. Complaining about warmth in south florida is like complaining about cold in Duluth. Having said that, we don't exactly have a high bar to jump to get a cooler Christmas this year as compared to the last 2. In Tampa they were each 86...version 2015 broke the all time high by 3 degrees and version 2016 tied. Surely we can do better this year. Full disclosure...I am not cheering on some blast of cold/freeze potential...but some hoodie/jacket/fireplace weather would be nice. I remain cautiously optimistic.

SFLcane wrote:

psyclone wrote:A cooler pattern is highly probable at this point...even for south florida. it doesn't necessarily mean cold or freeze potential but it will represent a big change from the current regime and certainly the past 2 Decembers. Here along the I-4 corridor I'm expecting multiple days with maxes in the 60's and lows in the 40's with a possibility of 1 day of sub 60 highs....just a gut guess at this point. Nevertheless should that happen it will be nice, crisp and invigorating...something that's been decidedly lacking in recent years.

No change here it’s been generally coolish at night abviously depending on your particular location closer to the coast or inland last few weeks generally speaking. It’s not gonna feel anything like Xmas around here that’s for sure.

Yeah, like most here I have a hard time buying into it yet 2+ weeks out, since it feels like we've seen this movie before.

Hasn't been feeling that cool at night to me....how far inland do you need to go? West of the turnpike?

Patrick99 wrote:

SFLcane wrote:

psyclone wrote:A cooler pattern is highly probable at this point...even for south florida. it doesn't necessarily mean cold or freeze potential but it will represent a big change from the current regime and certainly the past 2 Decembers. Here along the I-4 corridor I'm expecting multiple days with maxes in the 60's and lows in the 40's with a possibility of 1 day of sub 60 highs....just a gut guess at this point. Nevertheless should that happen it will be nice, crisp and invigorating...something that's been decidedly lacking in recent years.

No change here it’s been generally coolish at night abviously depending on your particular location closer to the coast or inland last few weeks generally speaking. It’s not gonna feel anything like Xmas around here that’s for sure.

Yeah, like most here I have a hard time buying into it yet 2+ weeks out, since it feels like we've seen this movie before.

Hasn't been feeling that cool at night to me....how far inland do you need to go? West of the turnpike?

300 miles up I-95

I just don't see at least South Florida getting cool it's been way to long, especially if the NAO is going positive that someone posted above.

I think a little cooler by the end of next week. Don't think will see a real cool down till mid December. As for the NAO. Yep it flip flops just like the ones I wear cause it's warm. There are more signs of NAO going neg by mid month. AO suppose to drop and PNA should go somewhat positive. So the teleconnections are favoring more mid month. Have to wait and see if it materializes.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml