STORM2K

The 6-10 and 8-14 day CPC Temperature Outlooks raise even more eyes as they both show cooler than average temperatures for Florida (including South Florida) with the 8-14 day Temperature Outlook bringing the core of the coldest air up along the middle of the U.S. East Coast.





Also, today’s hot off the press December Temperature Outlook has below average temperatures all along the Eastern third of the U.S. East Coast including all of Florida! So maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel.

O ye of little faith

Maybe just maybe we can have a "chilly" Christmas and it not be 85 lol

NAO now forecasted to go positive FWIW.

The ECMWF looks to bring the 850MB 0C line down through Central Florida in about a week from now.

Yikes!

As the time frame reels in the signal gets stronger. It's coming. And it will be more than a transient 2 or 3 day shot.

18z GFS floods the whole state with back to back reinforcing shots of cold air starting late next week/weekend through it’s long-range.

I love the cold weather and the welcome change and interesting enough the GFS fantasyland forecast at 336 hours has the rain/snow line thru Jacksonville FL. I'm still very skeptical on cold weather especially here in South Florida where the planets have to line up just right and have a neg NAO and pos AO for this to occur.

gatorcane wrote:The ECMWF looks to bring the 850MB 0C line down through Central Florida in about a week from now.

Yikes!

Here’s a closer look at todays 12z Euro for Florida.

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/936691088903102464

boca wrote:I love the cold weather and the welcome change and interesting enough the GFS fantasyland forecast at 336 hours has the rain/snow line thru Jacksonville FL. I'm still very skeptical on cold weather especially here in South Florida where the planets have to line up just right and have a neg NAO and pos AO for this to occur.

I always though a -AO was needed along with the -AO/+PNA?

I don't see anything unusual for this time of the year, usual 30s for for the Nature Coast and northern FL, 40s for central FL and 50s for south FL, is my forecast by looking at how the Euro has been backing away keeping it in its 7-10 day range as well as the GFS.
There's a lack of snow cover across the northern US.

TheStormExpert wrote:

boca wrote:I love the cold weather and the welcome change and interesting enough the GFS fantasyland forecast at 336 hours has the rain/snow line thru Jacksonville FL. I'm still very skeptical on cold weather especially here in South Florida where the planets have to line up just right and have a neg NAO and pos AO for this to occur.

I always though a -AO was needed along with the -AO/+PNA?

-AO doesn't do much to us, a big -NAO & +PNA is more effective to bring a really cold pattern to FL.
The big -AO we saw in the third week of November didn't do crap to our warm pattern.

NDG wrote:I don't see anything unusual for this time of the year, usual 30s for for the Nature Coast and northern FL, 40s for central FL and 50s for south FL, is my forecast by looking at how the Euro has been backing away keeping it in its 7-10 day range as well as the GFS.
There's a lack of snow cover across the northern US.

that seems a good bet but it's still a big change. we go from 10 degrees above normal to 5 to 10 below normal. I hope it doesn't go cooler than that...this is plenty..

Also notice the 12Z and 18Z temps on the 18Z GFS runs Friday. That is quite raw for during the middle of day and evening hours for Central and north peninsula Florida (due to cloud cover). Those temps are well below normal:

NDG wrote:I don't see anything unusual for this time of the year, usual 30s for for the Nature Coast and northern FL, 40s for central FL and 50s for south FL, is my forecast by looking at how the Euro has been backing away keeping it in its 7-10 day range as well as the GFS.
There's a lack of snow cover across the northern US.

Nothing unusual is right. The NAO looks to be getting ready to go positive again if anything. Shouldn’t expect anything colder than what we saw here back just before Halloween which was low 50’s.

I expect lows in the 60s and highs near 80 because I expect the models to totally back off on cold or even cooler weather in the next few days. I'm ready to move to a colder climate.

boca wrote:I expect lows in the 60s and highs near 80 because I expect the models to totally back off on cold or even cooler weather in the next few days. I'm ready to move to a colder climate.

I don’t know about that. But I’m with you on moving to a colder climate maybe such as North Carolina in the mountains. As a kid I sort of remember it seeming to be a bit cooler or colder here in South Florida during the holiday season. Clearly the globe is warming as those type of holiday seasons have become few and in between over the past decade or so.

Joke...

Maybe mid-uppers 50’s if we’re lucky across SFL Iam not buying any significant cool down

The GFS and ECMWF have trended colder overnight for this event with the Euro back to the 850mb 0C line into Central Florida and the GFS with 30s into Central Florida. This cold front looks for real and looks to usher in a BIG change for Floridians:

00z GFS was likely the coldest run yet for next Sunday morning with the 32°F line seeping almost into South Florida! The 06z GFS then backed off some as gatorcane posted but still is rather chilly for Floridians. Still would like to wait a few more days before saying this could be our first legit cold snap of the season.