STORM2K

I would only believe those temps when they are within the 5 day range like I mentioned before. If there would had been a nice snow pack already across the northern US it would had been more believable, IMO.

06z gfs has some upper 50’s with 1-2 night in the mid Lower 50’s no big deal there. I don’t buy those bogus low 40’s for SFL not one bit.

12Z GFS is warmer

We will be lucky to have a low of 59 and that's stretching it.

my current nws forecast for Friday shows low 60's and breezy with shower chances...sounds kinda nasty..

Lol what happened? These models even 3 days out are a crap shoot

The good news is it will get somewhat chilly for me next weekend. Seems like second front or shortwave will bring the coolest. Timing seems to be the models issue. Not the temps. At least from what I read from Miami NWS:

Models are also a more robust with a secondary frontal
passage on Sunday. So, considerable uncertainty remains in how
much clearing and how dry we get next weekend. What hasn't changed
however, is northerly flow bringing in a much cooler, potentially
even chilly, airmass for next weekend.

psyclone wrote:A cooler pattern is highly probable at this point...even for south florida. it doesn't necessarily mean cold or freeze potential but it will represent a big change from the current regime and certainly the past 2 Decembers. Here along the I-4 corridor I'm expecting multiple days with maxes in the 60's and lows in the 40's with a possibility of 1 day of sub 60 highs....just a gut guess at this point. Nevertheless should that happen it will be nice, crisp and invigorating...something that's been decidedly lacking in recent years.

Sticking with my gut call from last week. depending on sky cover hitting 60 on Friday could be a tall order here. Much warmer as per usual over south florida but still a notable cooldown for those regions.

After looking at this Friday we start in the 80’s across SFL only to drop into the 60’s later on the day with clouds and light rain likely.

There's going to be a pretty tight temp gradient somewhere over south florida Friday as the front slows in that vicinity. Central florida and points north will be solidly in the chilly stuff at that point.

Finally??! Seems as if local Central Florida Weather offices are finally coming to grips with the fact that we're in for a significant and prolonged cool down. Looks like a couple of wet dreary dank and chilly days for most of us here in Central and N. Fla. Oh, you guys in S. Florida will eventually get yours too lol..... the strong northerly advection along with the secondary and even follow-up short wave over the week-end will at least be significantly cooler for the entire state. I still think that local Met offices are acting a bit gun-shy on Sat/Sun low temp forecast from Tampa to Orlando to Melbourne. As far as I have found, nothing lower than mid 40's forecast. I'm pretty confident that there will be plenty of mid to upper 30's at least one night; Even as far south as Lake 'O. Hang up the 'ol surfboards for a few days and ready the fireplace! Sure, upper level heights will ebb and flow just as high pressure at the surface shifts over Florida and moderate some with time.... right until the next reinforcing ridge builds in from our northwest. This pattern looks like it may stick for a good week or two and if we truly keep a fairly sharp mid-level trough in the East, then the nightly radiation cooling alone will at least continue to remind us of our long forgotten sweater/sweatshirt collection lol.

Looks like the 12Z Euro brings another even stronger front into Florida at 192 hours. No doubt the pattern is turning colder for Florida especially Central and North:

No change, models keep pushing the 30s for the I-4 corridor to their 7-10 day range and as time gets closer to their short range forecast they start trending warmer.

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/938200872357715968

It's worth noting that the 8-14 day has moderated back to normal (for the first time in awhile) as the below normal anomalies contract back to the northeast. While I'm looking forward to a cooldown...it's tough to argue with the current weather regime which is supremely livable.

NDG wrote:No change, models keep pushing the 30s for the I-4 corridor to their 7-10 day range and as time gets closer to their short range forecast they start trending warmer.

That is generally true for the nearer future though if anything, the EURO has indicated the 500mb trough digging even deeper into Florida this weekend?? Furthermore, per the 12Z GFS this morning the 120hr. 2 meter temps for Orlando (for 12Z Mon.) had dropped a few degrees and now showing 40F. I'm not sure why the GFS is not advertising colder low temps for Central/N. Florida for the weekend but I suspect updated forecasts to follow will indicate colder than what is presently being forecast.

Agree! As I stated last week, model guidance will continue to go colder as time progresses. I am very confident that we will finally see the first freeze of the season for much of interior North Florida within the next week!

chaser1 wrote:

NDG wrote:No change, models keep pushing the 30s for the I-4 corridor to their 7-10 day range and as time gets closer to their short range forecast they start trending warmer.

That is generally true for the nearer future though if anything, the EURO has indicated the 500mb trough digging even deeper into Florida this weekend?? Furthermore, per the 12Z GFS this morning the 120hr. 2 meter temps for Orlando (for 12Z Mon.) had dropped a few degrees and now showing 40F. I'm not sure why the GFS is not advertising colder low temps for Central/N. Florida for the weekend but I suspect updated forecasts to follow will indicate colder than what is presently being forecast.

Yes the GFS went colder on the 12Z:

that front is slowing down but packing a punch...much of the panhandle is in the 40's and low 50's now. Perry is 57 while just to the south nearby Cross City is 74.

Well, a classic overrunning event is about to get underway here across North and eventually Central Florida for the next couple of days as a cold front will slowly drift south and.east across the peninsula.Cold and rainy conditions will set up shop. The front just passed my locale here at around 5:15 p.m. late this afternoon and saw the wind shift to northeast and temp dropped 17 degrees in about 70 minutes here, to the current reading, which is now at 58 degrees at the time of this post.

Temps will drop and by tomorrow morning, we probably will be in the upper 40s to low 50s most areas of NE Florida. I do not see any warming as clouds and rain, along with low level cold air advection, will keep temps across North Florida holding in the 40s to the low 50s all day tomorrow. Friday will be about the same. I see this happen all the time in situations in which we have classic overrunning and model guidance ends up being too warm with surface temps. I would definitely hedge on temps or ending up being colder on Thursday and Friday across North Florida. It could be the same across Central Florida on Friday as well. I will follow that the next couple of days.

The rest of the peninsula will see the rain and cool down later Thursday and especially Friday into the weekend. A freeze is possible across most of North Florida, possibly as early as Sunday morning.