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northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather

#12221 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:36 pm

LarryWx wrote:^I'm actually in SAV. You're mixing me up with another poster, who is in Statesboro.

It is fully understandable to not go full bore into something so incredibly rare. By the way, further kudos to the European ensemble (EPS), which had snow very close to here in runs over a week ago!


Oops.. I am sorry Larry. I think I accidentally confused you with GTStorm, who I think is the poster who is in Statesboro. Sorry about that Larry.

Here is the link to the latest AFD from the NWS Jax office just released. Excellent read and excellent analysis from the NWS Jax mets.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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Re: Florida Weather

#12222 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:50 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
LarryWx wrote:^I'm actually in SAV. You're mixing me up with another poster, who is in Statesboro.

It is fully understandable to not go full bore into something so incredibly rare. By the way, further kudos to the European ensemble (EPS), which had snow very close to here in runs over a week ago!


Oops LOL.. I am sorry Larry. I think I accidentally confused you with GTStorm, who I think is the poster who is in Statesboro. Sorry about that Larry.

Here is the link to the latest AFD from the NWS Jax office just released. Excellent read and excellent anaaysis from the NWS Jax mets.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1



Hey northjaxpro, you were right about this winter storm coming together and thank you for giving us your insight on this upcoming potentially historic event. We saw different model run as they changed day by day, but you stucked to your instinct/forecast even though an event like this rare. Good job. Though NW St. Johns is just over the creek from the recently issued Winter Weather Advisory for Southern and Western Duval, Clay and (parts of Nassau) counties, do you think that the effects of the St.Johns River or Julington Creek might bring some wintry mix to my locale despite it being forecasted to be above freezing?
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Re: Florida Weather

#12223 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:02 pm

@TropicalTidbits
NAM vs. HRRR in Tallhassee tomorrow afternoon. That would make quite a difference.


Image

Image



https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/948296496004268032
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Re: Florida Weather

#12224 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:04 pm

JaxGator wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
LarryWx wrote:^I'm actually in SAV. You're mixing me up with another poster, who is in Statesboro.

It is fully understandable to not go full bore into something so incredibly rare. By the way, further kudos to the European ensemble (EPS), which had snow very close to here in runs over a week ago!


Oops LOL.. I am sorry Larry. I think I accidentally confused you with GTStorm, who I think is the poster who is in Statesboro. Sorry about that Larry.


Here is the link to the latest AFD from the NWS Jax office just released. Excellent read and excellent analysis from the NWS Jax mets.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1



Hey northjaxpro, you were right about this winter storm coming together and thank you for giving us your insight on this upcoming potentially historic event. We saw different model run as they changed day by day, but you stucked to your instinct/forecast even though an event like this rare. Good job. Though NW St. Johns is just over the creek from the recently issued Winter Weather Advisory for Southern and Western Duval, Clay and (parts of Nassau) counties, do you think that the effects of the St.Johns River or Julington Creek might bring some wintry mix to my locale despite it being forecasted to be above freezing?


Hey Jax Gator. Well, initially, the influences of the Saint Johns River will be a factor here in the Jax metro area as of course it will helps to moderate the air immediately near the river just a little bit, as opposed to where I live (Northwest Jax near JIA), or on the west end of Jax like Cecil Commerce and areas west to Hwy 301 and even to I-75 corridor around Lake City. The farther inland you are tomorrow morning, either just west of downtown Jax on I-10 or north /northwest of Jax in Southeast Georgia traveling up I-95, the better probabilities you will have of seeing accumulating snow.

Thermal profiles will improve over Jacksonville proper at around 2:00 tomorrow afternoon. NAM and GFS shows the 540 partial thickness (rain /snow line) dropping southward into the Jax metro area,indicating the air column will get colder, which will help the changeover from freezing rain or sleet to eventually light snow of flurries by sunset.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12225 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:11 pm

floater loop showing the low taking shape south of the Keys:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

By the way a very impressive stratocumulus field over the Eastern Gulf waters...
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Re: Florida Weather

#12226 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:floater loop showing the low taking shape south of the Keys:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

By the way a very impressive stratocumulus field over the Eastern Gulf waters...



Yelp, Gatorcane that is our developing winter storm for sure, which by the way is developing a bit farther south than the models had it initially forming. The models always had the Low pressure area forming in the vicinity of the Northwestern Bahamas. This satellite view shows the developing system well down into the Florida Straits, just south of the middle Keys.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12227 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:21 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
gatorcane wrote:floater loop showing the low taking shape south of the Keys:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

By the way a very impressive stratocumulus field over the Eastern Gulf waters...



Yelp, Gatorcane that is our developing winter storm for sure, which by the way is developing a bit farther south than the models had it initially forming. The models always had the Low pressure area forming in the vicinity of the Northwestern Bahamas. This satellite view shows the developing system well down into the Florida Straits, just south of the middle Keys.



Does this mean snow can be further south?
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Re: Florida Weather

#12228 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:28 pm

Thermal profiles would not be cold enough to support any wintry precip south that far south. (South of I-4 corridor and beyond) for this event.

It could support possible flurries to areas like North- Central Florida like Ocala, Leesburg region for example. if the precip does not move out by the air column gets cold enough for a small chance.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12229 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:39 pm

Wow 18Z GFS going with a stronger storm by a few MBs with colder temperatures over NE Florida/SE GA than what it has on the 12Z run...supporting more snow than wintry mix.

Looks like the track shifted west again and is just skirting the outer banks with heavy snow...
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Re: Florida Weather

#12230 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:00 pm

Wow, this system is becoming our " Perfect Storm". Everything is coming together, far more than I ever anticipated. I saw the potential of this over a week ago, not perfectly like this however.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12231 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:08 pm

Looks like the 18Z GFS has gone slightly colder for the FL peninsula for Wed - Friday nights perhaps in response to the westward shift in the storm allowing a deeper trough to dig. Won't take much more to get a good part of the peninsula in a freeze especially interior and north of Lake O. Need to watch it closely but the saving grace could be the winds which may stay up just enough to allow mixing.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12232 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:15 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Oops LOL.. I am sorry Larry. I think I accidentally confused you with GTStorm, who I think is the poster who is in Statesboro. Sorry about that Larry.


Here is the link to the latest AFD from the NWS Jax office just released. Excellent read and excellent analysis from the NWS Jax mets.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1



Hey northjaxpro, you were right about this winter storm coming together and thank you for giving us your insight on this upcoming potentially historic event. We saw different model run as they changed day by day, but you stucked to your instinct/forecast even though an event like this rare. Good job. Though NW St. Johns is just over the creek from the recently issued Winter Weather Advisory for Southern and Western Duval, Clay and (parts of Nassau) counties, do you think that the effects of the St.Johns River or Julington Creek might bring some wintry mix to my locale despite it being forecasted to be above freezing?


Hey Jax Gator. Well, initially, the influences of the Saint Johns River will be a factor here in the Jax metro area as of course it will helps to moderate the air immediately near the river just a little bit, as opposed to where I live (Northwest Jax near JIA), or on the west end of Jax like Cecil Commerce and areas west to Hwy 301 and even to I-75 corridor around Lake City. The farther inland you are tomorrow morning, either just west of downtown Jax on I-10 or north /northwest of Jax in Southeast Georgia traveling up I-95, the better probabilities you will have of seeing accumulating snow.

Thermal profiles will improve over Jacksonville proper at around 2:00 tomorrow afternoon. NAM and GFS shows the 540 partial thickness (rain /snow line) dropping southward into the Jax metro area,indicating the air column will get colder, which will help the changeover from freezing rain or sleet to eventually light snow of flurries by sunset.


Thank you northjaxpro. I might not be able to go further inland to see accumulating snow, but thanks for the heads up on the chance of seeing some snow later on. Will be monitoring. Good luck tomorrow and stay safe.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016 , Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017.


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Re: Florida Weather

#12233 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:23 pm

:uarrow: Thanks Jax Gator. I am making the very quick drive up to Waycross tomorrow. Be safe out there tomorrow as well!!
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Re: Florida Weather

#12234 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:44 pm

One day I would like to see at least a wintery mix here. I miss snow lol being originally from Connecticut
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Re: Florida Weather

#12235 Postby psyclone » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:04 pm

Imagine sitting in Macon facing the prospect of being whiffed to the south and east by winter wx! Ha!
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Re: Florida Weather

#12236 Postby psyclone » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:15 pm

The forecast for Lake City is calling for .3 to .5" ice accretion. Should those accumulations transpire that would be sufficient to cause significant tree damage, especially on pines (the needles accumulate very efficiently) as well as any trees with leaves which also serve as additional surface accretion area. freezing rain is extremely dangerous. Long needle pines will likely experience severe stress and limb failure with around a quarter inch to .3 of accretion. Should the high end of the forecast manage to verify, widespread tree damage and associated power outages are a very real possibility. Even if the ground is too warm to accumulate ice (that's a good bet outside of bridges and overpasses)...the threat to exposed above ground objects (especially trees) is very real. Growing up in the northland long needle pines were always the first to fail in icing events.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12237 Postby Duddy » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:58 pm

I'm trying to find information or models for my area of Wilmington NC. I keep hearing that the GFS is blowing it up but would love more information.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12238 Postby psyclone » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:36 pm

Duddy wrote:I'm trying to find information or models for my area of Wilmington NC. I keep hearing that the GFS is blowing it up but would love more information.


You're definitely in line for some wintry fun
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Re: Florida Weather

#12239 Postby CDO62 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:41 pm

Duddy wrote:I'm trying to find information or models for my area of Wilmington NC. I keep hearing that the GFS is blowing it up but would love more information.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 10218&fh=0
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Re: Florida Weather

#12240 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:50 pm

+PNA, cyclogenesis along and off the east coast with a cold source region...and it gets chilly in Florida? You don't say :lol:. PNA is such a big player (next to the NAO) for the far southeastern US
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