STORM2K

Patrick99 wrote:In the meantime, down here in South Florida, modification of the air mass seems to be 100% complete. We didn't dip that far below 70 degrees this morning, with a brisk easterly breeze.

Wouldn’t say 100% just yet but it’s pretty much up there. Along with that brisk easterly flow you have the cloud cover, along with showers moving in making for a yucky day. We may see some cooler weather starting this weekend but nothing remotely close to what we just recently saw even though it could’ve been much worse had the NAO actually been negative.

NDG wrote:Considering that North Carolina was in the single digits F this morning with even some spots below zero F and teens over most of South Carolina we dodged the core of the Arctic air that is affecting the eastern US this weekend, thanks to the +NAO.

Even with a +NAO (It was supported by a +PNA/-EPO combo as well as a -AO when averaged out), SAV just experienced its coldest 7 consecutive days in 41 years, its first below 32 F week in 28 years, and a tie for its 8th coldest since records started in the 1870s! The longevity of this cold is one for the ages.

Only 4 of these 10 weeks have occurred during the last 100 years! Considering a warmer globe overall, this extremely cold week was that much more impressive.

So, the GFS is suggesting that this low forming in the Gulf is actually going to track south of Florida? Are we really buying that? I would think that the Euro's solution, with the low into South Florida, would be much more likely, and frankly I'm not even ready to buy that either. These lows this time of year almost always track into the Big Bend, Central Florida at the most southerly, don't they? Just seems strange for a Gulf low to form in January, and miss South Florida *to the south*.

The CPC 6-10 day Temperature Outlook has trended more blue with below average temperatures being depicted for the Eastern half of the U.S. including all of Florida again.



If you’re not a fan of the cooler weather don’t worry it should be gone the 8-14 day range being replaced by near average temperatures.

Patrick99 wrote:So, the GFS is suggesting that this low forming in the Gulf is actually going to track south of Florida? Are we really buying that? I would think that the Euro's solution, with the low into South Florida, would be much more likely, and frankly I'm not even ready to buy that either. These lows this time of year almost always track into the Big Bend, Central Florida at the most southerly, don't they? Just seems strange for a Gulf low to form in January, and miss South Florida *to the south*.

Well, the big storm which brought snow to portions of North Florida and Southern Georgia last week initially formed south of the Middle Florida Keys in the Florida Straits. It missed South Florida to the south and east
The Low tracked northeast off the Southeast coast of Florida and then parallel off the Florida East coast and then pulled away off the Southeast U.S. Atlantic coastal region. That Low was forecast for days leading up to the event by both GFS and EURO to form much farther north up around the Northwest Bahamas. So, the models were off quite a bit with that initialization.

So, although this time of the year it may be more common or typical of Low Pressure systems to track farther north out of the GOM, a storm can form farther south depending upon the placement or position of the sub tropical jet or southern stream energy(vorticity).

the 6-10 day has indeed tanked deep into the blue zone...a remarkable change considering the prior day's outlook was depicting normal conditions. Makes me a believer in a blast of cold with a good chance of a freeze threat into the peninsula.

psyclone wrote:the 6-10 day has indeed tanked deep into the blue zone...a remarkable change considering the prior day's outlook was depicting normal conditions. Makes me a believer in a blast of cold with a good chance of a freeze threat into the peninsula.

Yes psyclone I agree.

Not sure about a freeze threat into the peninsula this time around but below normal temps look to be a certainty.

gatorcane wrote:Not sure about a freeze threat into the peninsula this time around but below normal temps look to be a certainty.

There will definitely be a freeze threat for the northern peninsula next week. At the current time, it does not look to be nearly as severe as what we went through this past week with hard freezes across interior areas of the northern peninsula. However, guidance is suggesting. that still could see lows in the upper 20s early next week in the colder areas

LarryWx wrote:

NDG wrote:Considering that North Carolina was in the single digits F this morning with even some spots below zero F and teens over most of South Carolina we dodged the core of the Arctic air that is affecting the eastern US this weekend, thanks to the +NAO.

Even with a +NAO (It was supported by a +PNA/-EPO combo as well as a -AO when averaged out), SAV just experienced its coldest 7 consecutive days in 41 years, its first below 32 F week in 28 years, and a tie for its 8th coldest since records started in the 1870s! The longevity of this cold is one for the ages.

Only 4 of these 10 weeks have occurred during the last 100 years! Considering a warmer globe overall, this extremely cold week was that much more impressive.

That's why I said that central and southern FL lucked out because that was some very cold temps just to the north of the Peninsula that if we would had been dealing with a -NAO even here we would had been in the deep freeze probably colder than Dec 2010.

psyclone wrote:the 6-10 day has indeed tanked deep into the blue zone...a remarkable change considering the prior day's outlook was depicting normal conditions. Makes me a believer in a blast of cold with a good chance of a freeze threat into the peninsula.

I am not buying any models that show below average temps in the 6-10 day range when ensembles are now unanimously showing the PNA to go negative next week with a continuing +NAO.
After this weekend I am expecting a big warm up next week.

NDG wrote:

psyclone wrote:the 6-10 day has indeed tanked deep into the blue zone...a remarkable change considering the prior day's outlook was depicting normal conditions. Makes me a believer in a blast of cold with a good chance of a freeze threat into the peninsula.

I am not buying any models that show below average temps in the 6-10 day range when ensembles are now unanimously showing the PNA to go negative next week with a continuing +NAO.
After this weekend I am expecting a big warm up next week.

the below normal normal temps are now less than 6 days out.

at least this cold shot will be transient. Sunday looks to be the coldest with moderation thereafter.

12Z GFS lows for I-4 corridor:

Sat night 1/13: low 40s
Sun night 1/14: mid 30s
Mon night 1/15: low 40s
Tues night 1/16: upper 30s
Wed night 1/17: mid 40s:

psyclone wrote:at least this cold shot will be transient. Sunday looks to be the coldest with moderation thereafter.

As much as I want to see that, it doesn't look like that is what the models have been trending towards.
Looks like the ECMWF has joined the GFS with below to well below normal temps starting this Saturday and lasting the entire week...the ECMWF thinks Wed night will be the coldest night...rebound may not happen until later next week. Doesn't look quite as cold as the last cold snap but still pretty cold.

Anyone notice that the satellites pics are stuck on Monday and haven't updated.

gatorcane wrote:

psyclone wrote:at least this cold shot will be transient. Sunday looks to be the coldest with moderation thereafter.

As much as I want to see that, it doesn't look like that is what the models have been trending towards.
Looks like the ECMWF has joined the GFS with below to well below normal temps starting this Saturday and lasting the entire week...the ECMWF thinks Wed night will be the coldest night...rebound may not happen until later next week. Doesn't look quite as cold as the last cold snap but still pretty cold.

the cold has really been tenacious as of late...quite the change from recent years. every time it looks like it's getting the boot it reasserts itself. sure enough the 6-10 day has tilted back to the cool side of normal and my new NWS forecast is decidedly chilly into next week. not extreme cold but a solid 4-7 degrees below normal at what is already the coldest time of the year.

boca wrote:Anyone notice that the satellites pics are stuck on Monday and haven't updated.

That's because the site isn't authorized to display GOES East imagery anymore, so it only had GOES 13 data. That satellite was deactivated on Monday

Looks like we will have a very progressive pattern next week..There will be two very quick shots of cold air providing glancing blows to the peninsula.

The first will arrive this weekend as a upper trough broadens and amplifies quickly Saturday across the Eastern CONUS and brings a round of rain and possible thunderstorms. We clear out Saturday afternoon, and then cold advection settles in Saturday night through Monday morning. 1047 mb Polar High drops south to the Mid Mississippi Valley. But, the Polar High will not move south, but instead will move east to the Mid Atlantic region by Tuesday morning and shift off into the Atlantic. There will be a chance of seeing freezing temps across inland North Florida on both Sunday and Monday morning, but nothing like last week's prolonged cold spell.

The next reinforcing cold front will come through dry on northwest upper flow pattern. This will move through by Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring a threat of a freeze to the northern peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Now, this is a situation this upcoming week in which we really will see the benefits ofhaving the +NAO really saves the peninsula. The peninsula will primarily miss the full brunt of the harshest cold this time just to the north and east . North Florida will get the "glancing blows" with getting. a couple of freeze threats in the interior locations.

We may see the PNA go into a neutral to possible negative index the week starting January 19. That may bring a nice period of warming to our region and to much of the Eastern CONUS in the next 10 -14 day. period. We shall see.

Latest GFS with a freeze deep into the peninsula Wed night