STORM2K

I wouldn't be surprised if this blast ends up yielding the coldest night of the season. We should get a widespread freeze over the ag areas of west central Florida. The strawberry crop in plant city will be fine provided the sprinklers operate normally. and beyond that it looks like the arctic air gets the boot quickly and above normal temps are likely for the remainder of the month. As we head into Feb the increasing sun angle starts to work its magic.

Not related to the cold front, but anyone notice the moisture piling up in the Western Caribbean? If this was October, we'd probably be looking at that.

Patrick99 wrote:Not related to the cold front, but anyone notice the moisture piling up in the Western Caribbean? If this was October, we'd probably be looking at that.

Maybe it's related to cold front which is piling up moisture, which is allowing convection to pop up? I'm not quite sure. We've had a lot of these weird blobs of convection in the WCAR or CATL this month

looks like widespread freeze for the peninsula tonight even deep into interior South Florida. Tonight may be some of the coldest temps the peninsula has seen in years. I have noticed some of the growth zones have been pushed particularly in Central Florida where a freeze hasn't been seen in years. But now it looks like sensitive vegetation will be impacted. We will see what kind of damage reports come in.

Look at the HRRR!

Looks like the 18Z GFS is coming 1F degree colder for Central and North Florida with 29F for Orlando, Lakeland, and JAX.

Freeze warning just issued for most of the Tampa Bay area including Pinellas this time which can usually escape these warnings being a peninsula surrounded by water.

Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
449 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...Freezing temperatures likely overnight through early
Thursday morning...

.A strong cold front has crossed the area...and a much colder
airmass is moving southward through the Florida peninsula. The
degree of cold air will set the stage for a freeze event across a
large portion of the region later tonight and early Thursday
morning. Steady northerly winds will also combine with the cold
temperatures to produce low wind chills for all areas into
Thursday morning.

FLZ050-155-160-162-265-181400-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FZ.W.0007.180118T0400Z-180118T1400Z/
Pinellas-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Coastal Charlotte-
Inland Lee-
Including the cities of St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo,
Bradenton, Anna Maria Island, Venice, Sarasota, Englewood,
Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers, and Lehigh Acres
449 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a Freeze Warning, which is in effect from 11 PM this
evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

* TEMPERATURE...30 to 32 degrees

* DURATION...2 to 4 hours

* IMPACTS...Unprotected sensitive plants and crops may be damaged
or killed. Remember to bring pets indoors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... l_place1=2 Miles N Palm Harbor FL&product1=Freeze+Warning&lat=28.1122&lon=-82.76#.Wl_FkeXrupo

it feels stupid cold out there and these advection freezes are the worst...far worse than radiation cold events. Up north we used to call a frostless freeze a black freeze. My experience was worse plant damage than a freeze with frost. I was able to detect freeze damage here during the last cold shot...sensitive green shoots at ground level got zapped. Ornamental damage was confined to some burning on banana leaves but nothing more. tonight should turn the screws a bit tighter...im looking for a 30ish low here which could be of consequence in an advective event. Hoping for the best for everyone at risk from this cold.

BTW Tampa International (KTPA) has not recorded a freeze since 1-13-10...an amazing 8 year stretch. They seem to read warm but tonight should break the streak.

To be honest this winter thus far has been impressive! Especially since the NAO has been positive every day since December 1st and we still have recorded 3 different snow events in Florida just within 5 weeks apart.

Thank goodness the NAO hasn’t gone a good deal negative or we’d be screwed! But just like with the major hurricane drought all good things must come to an end at some point. Hopefully this 7 year streak we’ve been in since January 2011 continues for some time to come.

Always tough to thread the needle of wanting some chill without overdoing it and causing economic hardship. it's going to be a close shave for the vegetable crops which are hard to protect but the strawberries will be fine as long as the sprinklers function properly. and it will remain well above the damage threshold for citrus. we are going to have a boatload of flash fuel available for fire season in areas that have had a freeze. Add in the tremendous fuel loads thanks to Irma and if we have a dry spring....we're going to pay rent with the fire season yet again.

The streak has been broken...freezing conditions at Orlando and Tampa. Lakeland reporting 28 with more time to cool off remaining. Much warmer downstate. ..sunrise will beat the cold air to those regions but central Florida's luck has run out. This is a perfect example of why central florida looks light years different than south Florida. And it doesn't need to happen often...once every 5-10 years is enough. This one may leave a mark in some areas.

Yes indeed, psyclone well said!! Hard Freeze deep into West Central /Central Florida this morning. Still have a couple of hours to go for the temps to bottom out. A very impressive hard freeze over North and Central Florida. GFS did another wonderful job showing this cold outbreak more than 10 days out!! The GFS has performed very well so far this winter.

It is sitting on 25.2 degrees at my home this morning. NW wind around 10 mph currently making it feel like the mid'upper teens!! Looks likely the temp will drop another degree or two before the sun gets up . Definitely the coldest morning of the winter season by far to this juncture. It has been below freezing here since about out 10 p.m. last night, and it has been a very slow drop in temps afterward.

One more very cold night tonight into tomorrow morning as the Arctic High axis comes right over the area with calm winds. Lows again expected well down into the 20s across all of North Florida, and freezing temps once more again down to the I-4 corridor tomorrow morning.

We will moderate as the Arctic High shifts off into the Western Atlantic beginning Friday. We need a good thaw after this bone chilling cold spell everyone!

Yes indeed, psyclone well said!! Hard Freeze deep into West Central /Central Florida this morning. Still have a couple of hours to go for the temps to bottom out.

A very impressive hard freeze over North and Central Florida. This has been a classic advective freeze, with cold arctic air continually penetrating on north/northwest wind flow from the Arctic High, situated currently just to the northwest of the peninsula. GFS did another wonderful job showing this cold outbreak more than 10 days out!! The GFS has performed very well for the most part so far this winter.

It is sitting on 25.2 degrees at my home this morning at this hour. The northwest wind at around 10 mph currently makes it feel like the mid-upper teens! Looks likely the temp will drop another degree or two before the sun gets up. Definitely the coldest morning of the winter season by far to this juncture. It has been below freezing here since about 10 p.m. last night, and it has been a very slow drop in temps afterward.

One more very cold night tonight into tomorrow morning as the Arctic High axis comes right over the area with calm winds and ideal traditional cooling. Lows again expected well down into the 20s across all of North Florida, and freezing temps once more again down to the I-4 corridor tomorrow morning.

We will moderate as the Arctic High shifts off into the Western Atlantic beginning Friday. We need a good thaw after this bone chilling cold spell everyone!

Upper 20's now run the entire I-4 corridor with Tampa international down to 29 now and temps continue to relentlessly drop. St Pete Clearwater/Sarasota and Punta Gorda are all sitting at the freezing mark. These temps are all at or a tad under forecasted lows. Crikey

I busted big time, I did not think that the 20s would make it to the I-4 corridor. Big props to the Euro which many days ago had it right.
I should had known better that the GFS was going to bust when I have in Houston since Monday night and temps dropped on Tuesday after the frontal passage way more than what the GFS was forecasting a couple of days prior. It was 19 here yesterday, first time since 1996 that they have seen temps this cold.
I checked my neighborhood's wx station this morning, temps near 27 degrees right at this moment, been sub freezing since 2:30 AM. When I get back I expect many of my tropical plants which I did not get a chance to protect before I left for Houston to have severe freeze damage

Also, do not forget the new added snow pack over areas of the Deep South from the winter storm that came across the Southeast U.S. yesterday into last night. Areas across the Central Piedmont of North Carolina around Chapel Hill and Durham, NC received up to a foot of snow!

So, this air mass is not moderating much at the moment given this factor, so another chief reason for the bone chilling temps deep into the peninsula this morning.

I get you NDG, but the GFS was first to show the magnitude and potential of this current arctic outbreak on the heels of the first one we had back after the start of New Year's (the first week of January). You gotta give GFS its props in this regard.

I have rode the GFS pretty heavy this winter, and have backed that up on here, especially during that first cold major outbreak at the start of January when many thought the GFS was out on a limb. I stuck my neck out there with going with the GFS. Well, it ended up being correct as we all came to find out.

northjaxpro wrote:I get you NDG, but the GFS was first to show the magnitude and potential of this current arctic outbreak on the heels of the first one we had back after the start of New Year's (the first week of January). You gotta give GFS its props in this regard.

I have rode the GFS pretty heavy this winter, and have backed that up on here, especially during that first cold major outbreak at the start of January when many thought the GFS was out on a limb. I stuck my neck out there with going with the GFS. Well, it ended up being correct as we all came to find out.

But the GFS was initially too dry with the respect for frozen precip to fall across the deep south, while the Euro and CMC were showing the chances for snow to fall across the gulf coast days before the event. Might be the reason why the GFS was too warm with the temps for central and southern FL.

Good point NDG. The EURO was right with the mousture (snow events), but the GFS was fairly right on with temperatures.

GFS was very slow to jump on the moisture with this storm yesterday leading into this cold outbreak.

But, GFS has performed overall pretty good with the large scale pattern so far this winter. I think most people would agree with me on this.