STORM2K

The saving grace for us might be the PNA if indeed it stays negative in which the core of the Arctic air might stay to the north & west of us.

Yeah, you are right NDG. I acknowledged the negative PNA currently in previous posts. But, that could change by the time we enter into March.

Perfect picture beach wx for snowbirds, businesses cashing in.

I hope we can score a March cold shot...late cold shots delay the onset of the summer swelter season by cooling the shelf waters and allowing greater seabreeze cooling...natural AC. We have a well defined seabreeze boundary marching inland here in west central florida right now.

Long range GFS as well as teleconnections suggesting an end to the winter "heat wave"...back to normal temperatures at least if not below normal. I don't like the interior of my car getting to over 100 degrees in February.

87 in Tampa and 85 @ St Pete Clearwater. unreal warmth by Feb standards

psyclone wrote:87 in Tampa and 85 @ St Pete Clearwater. unreal warmth by Feb standards

Yes as of 5:10 pm 88 in Tampa, to me this is bonus summer. Feb has usually been a month to dread for me personally, so I am soaking it up
going mountain biking etc.
posting.php?mode=smilies&f=24#

MetroMike wrote:

psyclone wrote:87 in Tampa and 85 @ St Pete Clearwater. unreal warmth by Feb standards

Yes as of 5:10 pm 88 in Tampa, to me this is bonus summer. Feb has usually been a month to dread for me personally, so I am soaking it up
going mountain biking etc.
posting.php?mode=smilies&f=24#

I rode from my home down to the east end of the Courtney Campbell trail yesterday. I hammer the miles on the bike this time of year when the weather permits. You have to take advantage of the outdoor exercise weather when we have it. It's one of the reasons I'm hoping for a late season cool snap...cooler water helps inoculate us a bit longer from the eventual onslaught of Summer meltdown heat..

psyclone wrote:

MetroMike wrote:

psyclone wrote:87 in Tampa and 85 @ St Pete Clearwater. unreal warmth by Feb standards

Yes as of 5:10 pm 88 in Tampa, to me this is bonus summer. Feb has usually been a month to dread for me personally, so I am soaking it up
going mountain biking etc.
posting.php?mode=smilies&f=24#

I rode from my home down to the east end of the Courtney Campbell trail yesterday. I hammer the miles on the bike this time of year when the weather permits. You have to take advantage of the outdoor exercise weather when we have it. It's one of the reasons I'm hoping for a late season cool snap...cooler water helps inoculate us a bit longer from the eventual onslaught of Summer meltdown heat..

Yeah, us Floridian's generally dread the excessive heat that we're SO accustomed but would be plenty happy if it never really got all that cold either LOL. As for myself, I hate the blazing heat and high humidities that we get for too many months of the year. That's why I cherish any semblance of "cool" weather that we get here in Central Florida. Thank heaven the mid level heights look to come down a bit around next Tuesday, according to both the GFS and the EURO. While most Florida will nearly see an immediate Northeast wind shift come across the water with that weak front that'll likely wash out.... at least the nights will become a bit cooler again. The following Tuesday (March 6ish) looks to then usher in a more potent cold front supported by a legitimate and deeper dip of the 500 mb flow. Granted, this being entirely based on long long range GFS modeling so feel free to throw this into the "wish-casting" column. If this "2-week out" late season cold front verifies however, i'd anticipate a couple of nights with low's back down to the upper 30's for N. Florida, low to mid 40's for Central Fla., and upper 40's/low 50's into much of S. Florida. High's perhaps in the 60's for most of the state (possibly near 70 for S. Fla).

All time Feb record high @ KTPA of 89 today. KPIE is baking at 88 too...perhaps that's even more impressive considering the wind trajectory off the bay. The CPC outlooks show the above normal anoms relaxing so a more sane temp regime looks likely as we enter march. In the immediate term several more record highs appear likely in west central florida.

Looking at my weather station (here in Jax), it's recorded some kind of cooldown in March every year since I brought it online in late 2012.
Usually only brief though (cool day, cold day, cool day, gone).
I remember them occurring every year since 2009 - it's gotten so reliable that i know not to pack up my jackets once we initially warm up, but to generally wait until I file my taxes.
I can't say when a cooldown will come since I'm no meteorologist but I expect it to come.

mlfreeman wrote:Looking at my weather station (here in Jax), it's recorded some kind of cooldown in March every year since I brought it online in late 2012.
Usually only brief though (cool day, cold day, cool day, gone).
I remember them occurring every year since 2009 - it's gotten so reliable that i know not to pack up my jackets once we initially warm up, but to generally wait until I file my taxes.
I can't say when a cooldown will come since I'm no meteorologist but I expect it to come.

Typically the waning gasps of our Florida Winter are caused by a quicker wind shift from Northwest to Northeast following a frontal passage. Just seems that as the N. Hemisphere moves that much closer to Spring, the upper flow is much quicker in pulling those 500mb S.E. Conus trough incursions up and out. Another factor that'll aid a shorter duration cool down is when we see strong High pressure behind a frontal passage push off to the east a bit quicker which immediately results in our winds turning out of the Northeast/East thus allowing the relative warmer Atlantic ocean to quickly moderate the air mass. You're right though about that one or two final March cool fronts in March; Down here most people think Winter is already over LOL but for much of the country Winter actually can/will continue through to March 20 (official end of Winter).

Just curious, do you happen to recall what the coldest March night-time temp you've measured since you've bought your Weather Station?

I can tell you I measured 27 degrees at my weather station on the morning of March 14, 1993, during the immediate aftermath of the March 1993 Superstorm. This is the coldest reading I can ever recall measuring in the month of March here. Record cold set in across many areas after that incredible storm. The silver anniversary of this incredible storm is coming up about 3 weeks from now.


Well, the mercury reached 84.4 degrees this afternoon at my home here in north Jax. Incredible warmth, even for our standards in late February. A southeast sea breeze is just now making it inland here to cool the temps a few degrees at this hour. Chamber of Commerce folks are absolutely loving this weather. Temps are running about 15 degrees above average temps for late February.

I am still seeing indications already discussed earlier that we will finally cool off by the second week in March, at least to about normal for March. It is still a bit too soon to know just how much cooler we will get. We should get a better idea next week just how much cooler we may get by the time we get through the first week of March.





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today's 6-10 day outlook shows a continuation of the torch but the 8-14 day shows normal temps for the first time in ages...this certainly indicates a big cooldown is on the docket as we get into March. This could very well be one of those rare years where March is cooler than Feb. At least the start seems to point to that possibility.

chaser1 wrote:

mlfreeman wrote:Looking at my weather station (here in Jax), it's recorded some kind of cooldown in March every year since I brought it online in late 2012.
Usually only brief though (cool day, cold day, cool day, gone).
I remember them occurring every year since 2009 - it's gotten so reliable that i know not to pack up my jackets once we initially warm up, but to generally wait until I file my taxes.
I can't say when a cooldown will come since I'm no meteorologist but I expect it to come.

Typically the waning gasps of our Florida Winter are caused by a quicker wind shift from Northwest to Northeast following a frontal passage. Just seems that as the N. Hemisphere moves that much closer to Spring, the upper flow is much quicker in pulling those 500mb S.E. Conus trough incursions up and out. Another factor that'll aid a shorter duration cool down is when we see strong High pressure behind a frontal passage push off to the east a bit quicker which immediately results in our winds turning out of the Northeast/East thus allowing the relative warmer Atlantic ocean to quickly moderate the air mass. You're right though about that one or two final March cool fronts in March; Down here most people think Winter is already over LOL but for much of the country Winter actually can/will continue through to March 20 (official end of Winter).

Just curious, do you happen to recall what the coldest March night-time temp you've measured since you've bought your Weather Station?

I looked back through Wunderground's archives and the record low for me was March 4, 2013 - it hit 35 for the low then.
2013, 2014, 2017 - all recorded lows in the 30s at least once in March.
2015 and 2016 - both recorded lows of 43 at one point.

mlfreeman wrote:

chaser1 wrote:

mlfreeman wrote:Looking at my weather station (here in Jax), it's recorded some kind of cooldown in March every year since I brought it online in late 2012.
Usually only brief though (cool day, cold day, cool day, gone).
I remember them occurring every year since 2009 - it's gotten so reliable that i know not to pack up my jackets once we initially warm up, but to generally wait until I file my taxes.
I can't say when a cooldown will come since I'm no meteorologist but I expect it to come.

Typically the waning gasps of our Florida Winter are caused by a quicker wind shift from Northwest to Northeast following a frontal passage. Just seems that as the N. Hemisphere moves that much closer to Spring, the upper flow is much quicker in pulling those 500mb S.E. Conus trough incursions up and out. Another factor that'll aid a shorter duration cool down is when we see strong High pressure behind a frontal passage push off to the east a bit quicker which immediately results in our winds turning out of the Northeast/East thus allowing the relative warmer Atlantic ocean to quickly moderate the air mass. You're right though about that one or two final March cool fronts in March; Down here most people think Winter is already over LOL but for much of the country Winter actually can/will continue through to March 20 (official end of Winter).

Just curious, do you happen to recall what the coldest March night-time temp you've measured since you've bought your Weather Station?

I looked back through Wunderground's archives and the record low for me was March 4, 2013 - it hit 35 for the low then.
2013, 2014, 2017 - all recorded lows in the 30s at least once in March.
2015 and 2016 - both recorded lows of 43 at one point.

Nice?!! I hadn't realized that Jax had so commonly witnessed 30's in March over a fair number of recent years. Given that.... along with reinforcing evidence from both EURO & GFS 0Z model runs, I'd amend my guess for you'all in Jax to very well see 32º (or below) at least once between March 1 - March 6.

Chaser1, yes I can definitely confirm what you and mlfreeman have been discussing above. The March 1993 Superstorm was the extreme case obviously here and across the entire region with that record breaking cold in that historic storm's aftermath. 27 degrees was the coldest temp I ever seen measured here in Jax so late in the season.

But, yes, there have been frequent cold spells with temps in the 30s as shown above in March in recent years in the Jax metro area and across North Florida. I know the NWS office at Jax International Airport has recorded a light freeze in early April. There have been spots in interior North Florida and Big Bend that have recorded temps at or below 32 degrees as late as the first week in April.

This is why I do not start planting the spring garden until the first week of April at the very earliest. I know better to not turn my back on Old Man Winter in our neck of the woods for sure. As I mentioned on this thread and on the Deep South Winter thread, I would take the odds of seeing a late season cold snap to occur than not without much hesitation.

Speaking of a late season cold snap, this morning's 6Z GFS long range guidance is looking intriguing. As I stated last night, it is still long range and I am only referencing one run and changes will come with later runs. However, signs are pointing toward a significant change in the pattern with a potential cool spell by the second week of March for the Eastern CONUS.

As of yesterday Orlando's February averaged temperature is a whopping 70.9 F
A whopping 8.3 deg F above average and a whopping 1.2 F higher than the warmest February ever, set back in 1949.
Looking at the long range forecast, sypnotic wx pattern & analogs the chances of any freezing temps visiting the I-4 corridor next month are slim to none so I already started working on my garden. Only 8 more days left of meteorological winter

Hey NDG. Likely, I think you will be OK with your spring garden down your way. I have to wait just a bit longer. Too risky of course for me to start planting just yet.

Just remembered and checked the records and we actually set the latest freeze record at the NWS Jax office in 2007.

The latest freeze occurred on April 8, 2007, when the mercury dropped to 31 degrees.

The average date of the last freeze here is February. 26.

Therefore, we have seen freezing temps into early April across Jax and North Florida.

So, again, too risky to plant the spring garden for me here just yet. Once we get into late March here in most instances, then I feel like it will be safe to plant.