STORM2K

From this morning's NWS JAX Area Forecast Discussion (at 4:13 AM):

While there is currently a Slight risk contour across most of the
area for Day 3 (mainly late Monday), the more concerning period
across our region with this system at this point is Tuesday when
the cold front moves through. A lot will depend on the timing of
the squall line Monday night/early Tuesday morning but model
forecasts have been fairly consistent that the threat for severe
weather will continue into Tuesday. Deep layer moisture and shear
remain in place, with nearly 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 40-50+ knots
of 0-6km bulk shear supporting supercell development, perhaps
even out ahead of the front. Forecast soundings also showing steep
lapse rates and even a fair amount of shear in the 0-1km and
0-3km layers, suggesting the possibility that all modes of severe
weather including tornadoes are possible.

I've wanted some wind followed by a nice downpour to clean out the air and finish off the pollen but am I going to regret that desire on Tuesday?

mlfreeman wrote:From this morning's NWS JAX Area Forecast Discussion (at 4:13 AM):

While there is currently a Slight risk contour across most of the
area for Day 3 (mainly late Monday), the more concerning period
across our region with this system at this point is Tuesday when
the cold front moves through. A lot will depend on the timing of
the squall line Monday night/early Tuesday morning but model
forecasts have been fairly consistent that the threat for severe
weather will continue into Tuesday. Deep layer moisture and shear
remain in place, with nearly 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 40-50+ knots
of 0-6km bulk shear supporting supercell development, perhaps
even out ahead of the front. Forecast soundings also showing steep
lapse rates and even a fair amount of shear in the 0-1km and
0-3km layers, suggesting the possibility that all modes of severe
weather including tornadoes are possible.

I've wanted some wind followed by a nice downpour to clean out the air and finish off the pollen but am I going to regret that desire on Tuesday?

Most of the severe threats this year have not come to fruition in Florida. To add to that models have been overdoing precip amounts in my opinion.
I continue to be frustrated with the lack of widespread heavier rainfall to wipe away the pollen at least temporarily .

MetroMike wrote:

mlfreeman wrote:From this morning's NWS JAX Area Forecast Discussion (at 4:13 AM):

While there is currently a Slight risk contour across most of the
area for Day 3 (mainly late Monday), the more concerning period
across our region with this system at this point is Tuesday when
the cold front moves through. A lot will depend on the timing of
the squall line Monday night/early Tuesday morning but model
forecasts have been fairly consistent that the threat for severe
weather will continue into Tuesday. Deep layer moisture and shear
remain in place, with nearly 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 40-50+ knots
of 0-6km bulk shear supporting supercell development, perhaps
even out ahead of the front. Forecast soundings also showing steep
lapse rates and even a fair amount of shear in the 0-1km and
0-3km layers, suggesting the possibility that all modes of severe
weather including tornadoes are possible.

I've wanted some wind followed by a nice downpour to clean out the air and finish off the pollen but am I going to regret that desire on Tuesday?

Most of the severe threats this year have not come to fruition in Florida. To add to that models have been overdoing precip amounts in my opinion.
I continue to be frustrated with the lack of widespread heavier rainfall to wipe away the pollen at least temporarily .

Yeah, sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if whatever squall line forms ends up splitting into two and essentially going *around* Jacksonville like so many others.

psyclone wrote:getting back to 70 feels wonderful. more dry, cool and windy weather is on the docket next week. Besides another dose of below normal temps the big headline is likely to be persistent high fire danger. what a crazy winter this turned out to be.

I'm predicting a high wild fire danger over the next few weeks. The combination of cool dry pattern over the last few days and high sun angle it has dry out the ground big time, if we get into a pattern of warm dry wx with strong westerly winds across east central FL it will be the right mix for a high wild fire danger during April.

central florida is outlooked in a d 4 severe threat. we've gone the entire winter without a single threat so this will be interesting to watch unfold. February and March are the peak down here after which we're often below the fray. For me a good squall line blasting off the Gulf is the highlight of winter/early spring.

Day 2 Slight to Marginal Risk for Panhandle

Day 3 Enhanced & Slight Risk for Northern/Central Peninsular Florida



NWS Melbourne disco

Tuesday...Short range model guidance continues in good agreement in
advertising a strong mid/upper level trough across the Southeast
accompanied by favorable coupled jet streak induced upper divergence
across central FL through late morning into the afternoon. Low to
mid level wind fields will increase with H9 wind to 40-45 knots and
850 mb winds to near 50 knots. As the trough approaches, mid level
temps will cool at 500 mbs to -13 C by afternoon leading to steep
low to mid level lapse rates. Expect a line of strong to potentially
severe storms to move across nrn sections from morning to early
afternoon and then across southern sections through the remainder of
the mid to late afternoon and early evening. At this time the
primary hazards with storms will be strong straight line winds,
hail, locally heavy rain, frequent lightning. Deep layer shear,
strong mid layer wind fields combined with marginally sufficient low
level helicity should allow for a low tornado threat as well. Have
added possible severe storms from Osceola/Brevard northward. Breezy
to windy offshore flow in the morning will allow highs to reach the
lower 80s north to mid to upper 80s south before the convection
moves through.

Tue Night...Evening convection with some strong storms across
Okeechobee and the Treasure coast should move southeast into late
evening with much drier air moving in from the west through the
night. Pressure gradient will support breezy conditions at times
behind the front with lows in the 50s.

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/974328289929191425

So it looks like down here in South Florida we will miss all the action that North and Central Florida will get today and tomorrow in terms of severe weather. Doesn’t surprise me as these La Niña winters mean business in terms of nearly completely killing out chances of any active frontal passages. January 2017 was just a rare anomaly.

I was really excited when I woke up this morning and saw the squall line moving through Ocala & Gainesville looking like it was holding strong to make it through Orlando, as soon as it approached the Orlando area it evaporated to just a few sprinkles
Hopefully later today and tomorrow it wouldn't happen, we need the rain bad.

We really need the rain in South Florida its dry as a bone and a slight chance Tues night.We probably won't get rain til May 20th the start of rainy season.

NDG wrote:I was really excited when I woke up this morning and saw the squall line moving through Ocala & Gainesville looking like it was holding strong to make it through Orlando, as soon as it approached the Orlando area it evaporated to just a few sprinkles
Hopefully later today and tomorrow it wouldn't happen, we need the rain bad.

I'm thinking our Orlando area will get 1/4" - 1/2" rain tomm.- Tuesday; perhaps localized amounts around 1". I'm sure there will be a few cells where 35-45 mph gusts will be reported. Depending on leftover debris clouds from today (or advancing low level clouds in advance of any organized line), perhaps ample heating and lift will allow for some descrete lightning storms tomorrow just ahead of any fast moving prefrontal trough. The anticipated -13º upper air temps should certainly be conducive for a lot of dangerous lightning.

But a real rock & rolling squall line? It just seems that way more often then not most anticipated, inland Central Florida squall lines somehow under-perform when it comes to severe weather. With the primarily unidirectional winds, I'd guess a better chance at some truly severe weather might occur closer and along the coast from Vero north to St. Augustine.

Boy, i remember living down in S. Florida how anticipating severe weather only to just to see it fizzle beforehand, was even more constant than here in the Orlando area. Since moving here, I've found the Orlando area to get some insane and fierce lightning storms but not typically related to meso-scale related events.

Finally I had a nice storm come through my neighborhood here in the Bear Lake/Forest City area with another cell getting ready to pass through, I am a happy camper and so are my plants.

NDG wrote::uarrow: Finally I had a nice storm come through my neighborhood here in the Bear Lake/Forest City area with another cell getting ready to pass through, I am a happy camper and so are my plants.

Right?!! Some serious rain! I don't even remember the last time we got a good training of rain along with multiple embedded heavy cells. Go away dust & pollen LOL!! Sounds like you're off of W. Maitland Blvd. I suppose I'm about 8 miles ENE of you (in Longwood off 17-92). Looks like the whole area with embedded convection is slowly migrating south. Might end up with an inch or more of rain.... can't say I expected that.

very impressive convection today...too bad it was all to my north but nice to see some folks cash in. tomorrow's severe threat is pretty decent from a wind standpoint considering the strong winds aloft..any decent convection will be able to make mischief with that. if we can get some surface heating over land tomorrow the squall line (if we get one) could get stronger as it heads east and maybe pop some discrete cells ahead of the line. at any rate it looks like things fizzle as they head south with severe probs dropping quickly below the I-4 corridor (per the most recent SPC outlook)

Respectable probs on the newly issued tornado watch covering parts of central and north fl. severe storm is lurking offshore the tampa bay area may come ashore around the pasco/Pinellas line just after noon if it holds together. probably one of many look worthy storms this afternoon.

Currently here in Fort Lauderdale. I have been here since last Saturday enjoying a little vacation. I am heading back to Jacksonville this afternoon. I will be driving through these storms this afternoon. Hopefully, the storms will not reach severe levels. We desperately need this rain. It is very dry state-wide, especially here in South Florida .

I managed to pick up some rainfall yesterday near the coast in Boca Raton with an afternoon shower that developed along seabreeze driven convection. But still overall things are on the dry side. I get the feeling the state will see some wildfires this spring as we head later into April and May before the rainy season kicks in.

Also tracking those cells offshore the Tampa area. They look intense but we will see if they hold together as the approach the cooler shelf waters near the coast.

psyclone wrote:Respectable probs on the newly issued tornado watch covering parts of central and north fl. severe storm is lurking offshore the tampa bay area may come ashore around the pasco/Pinellas line just after noon if it holds together. probably one of many look worthy storms this afternoon.

Yeah, looks like your W. Coast guys will at minimum get a couple discrete cells coming through. That's even before the more organized squall line around dinner time I suppose

gatorcane wrote:I managed to pick up some rainfall yesterday near the coast in Boca Raton with an afternoon shower that developed along seabreeze driven convection. But still overall things are on the dry side. I get the feeling the state will see some wildfires this spring as we head later into April and May before the rainy season kicks in.

Also tracking those cells offshore the Tampa area. They look intense but we will see if they hold together as the approach the cooler shelf waters near the coast.

Funny, seems to me that the severe weather threat would exist down to the N. Broward area too? Even though you're weather might tend to roll in nearer to (or after) nightfall, I would think sufficient heating and difluent winds aloft would still set the stage for some good convective stuff late this evening?

Here in Longwood (N. Orlando area), getting some nice moderate rain and thunder. One nice cell on radar just passing over. Some lightning but nothing special. Minimal wind gusts and perhaps 1/2 - 3/4" rain. My sister in Winter Park (6-8 miles south) did get a good deal of small pea to occasionally dime sized hail though.