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psyclone
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Re: Florida Weather

#13741 Postby psyclone » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:18 am

There is still time for mother nature to drop a Winter bomb on us. It isn't over yet. The current pattern shift is welcome here...December featured a good bit chilly and lousy weather with more than 10" inches of rain. Loving the recent sun and warmth.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13742 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:25 am

:uarrow: Oh yeah plenty of time left for Mother Nature to flip the script. It is just a question of when? I would be rather surprised if we don't see at least one decent cold snap this month I admit.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13743 Postby boca » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:50 pm

At this point I’m just hoping for rain that north and central Florida were getting,it’s been bone dry here.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13744 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:32 pm

They're still hyping it for the latter half of January: https://news.yahoo.com/polar-vortex-apo ... NlYwNzcg--
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Re: Florida Weather

#13745 Postby boca » Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:48 pm

That article about the polar vortex is outdated by 3 weeks and so far no signs of change as of today. I’m hoping this materializes because it’s way to hot out,especially for January.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13746 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:40 pm

boca wrote:That article about the polar vortex is outdated by 3 weeks and so far no signs of change as of today. I’m hoping this materializes because it’s way to hot out,especially for January.

The humidity is what makes it feel sort of unpleasant. Even at nearly 8pm you have temperatures in the upper 70’s.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13747 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:02 pm

boca wrote:We are drier and warmer in this part of the state and in a moderate drought this is not a El Niño pattern more like La Niña.


Yeah, if I didn't know any better, with that persistent Caribbean ridge overhead it sure looks like La Nina.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13748 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:03 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
boca wrote:That article about the polar vortex is outdated by 3 weeks and so far no signs of change as of today. I’m hoping this materializes because it’s way to hot out,especially for January.

The humidity is what makes it feel sort of unpleasant. Even at nearly 8pm you have temperatures in the upper 70’s.


I was walking around just now.......it is downright stuffy and uncomfortable out. It's been this way for days now. There's a breeze but it is somehow not helping. It's been warm in January in the past, but I cannot remember this kind of stuffiness. For January 4, these conditions are pretty nasty. Who am I kidding, this would feel uncomfortable on May 4:

Humidity 72%
Wind Speed S 12 mph
Barometer 29.99 in (1015.5 mb)
Dewpoint 72°F (22°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 87°F (31°C)
Last update 4 Jan 12:53 pm EST

We won't be getting much of a frontal passage this weekend, but at least it will definitely be more dry out. That will help.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13749 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:36 pm

Relief looks to be on the way. The FV3 GFS and ECMWF show a strong front for late this week. Looks like 40s down into Central Florida and 50s south, maybe it won’t end up that cold but it should feel cooler outside for a change.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13750 Postby psyclone » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:30 pm

cooler weather has been delayed but not denied. this front has already overdelivered here in the precip dept with some really heavy rain. cooler air will be filtering in and while there's no big cold on the horizon...nor is there a return to the anomalous warmth. it looks really nice overall..
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Re: Florida Weather

#13751 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:57 pm

Was not expecting to see frontal precip on the radar tonight, light as it may be.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13752 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:57 pm

:uarrow: It's falling apart quickly as we loose the daytime heating. :cry:

Image

This is exactly why our drought continues to worsen, not much precipitation whatsoever associated with these frontal passages is making it past Lake-O.

Image
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Re: Florida Weather

#13753 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:43 am

Yesterday picked up just under an inch of rain as the shortwave trough moved through the region late yesterday.

We do have a pretty decent front coming up on Wednesday, which will bring nice breezy conditions, and cool temperatures to the peninsula. A 1040 mb Arctic High will drop into the Great Lakes region, but moves east, not southward, as the polar jet stays well north of the peninsula. The core of the arctic air stays well north and east of the peninsula.

This also will bring onshore northeasterly flow to the peninsula by Thursday, quickly moderating the airmass. At least it will be more seasonable temps with max temps mainly in the low 60s and lows in the 40s here late this week here in North Florida.

I won't even bother with analyzing the long term up to and beyond 10 days. Pattern is still evolving and the models still are nowhere near any sense of agreement. I am confident saying that we will not have any freeze here across the North Florida peninsula within at least the next 10 days.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13754 Postby NDG » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:59 am

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: It's falling apart quickly as we loose the daytime heating. :cry:

https://i.imgur.com/ArvNwWY.gif

This is exactly why our drought continues to worsen, not much precipitation whatsoever associated with these frontal passages is making it past Lake-O.
.
https://i.imgur.com/FuG12Fs.jpg


Not so much the loss of daytime heating it was due to the fact that the mid level energy passed well to the north of S FL with still some mid level ridging lagging in S FL

Image
Last edited by NDG on Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13755 Postby NDG » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:29 am

MJO is moving into Phase 8, thus the change in the pattern for the eastern US but with the NAO forecasted to be near neutral and the PNA only slightly positive the core of the colder airmasses will stay to the north of FL over the next 7-14 days, as mentioned by northjaxpro.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13756 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:07 pm

NDG wrote:MJO is moving into Phase 8, thus the change in the pattern for the eastern US but with the NAO forecasted to be near neutral and the PNA only slightly positive the core of the colder airmasses will stay to the north of FL over the next 7-14 days, as mentioned by northjaxpro.

And Florida’s “escaping the extreme cold” luck continues!
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Re: Florida Weather

#13757 Postby boca » Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:52 pm

Our winters in South Florida have become almost nonexistent just like the rainfall every cold front dries up one it crosses Lake O. I’m hoping the pattern changes soon like NGD said we are going into phase 8, but means nothing unless you have cold air.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13758 Postby psyclone » Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:51 pm

CPC showing normal temps and precip over the next 2 weeks with no significant below normal anomalies anywhere in the continental US.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13759 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:28 pm

boca wrote:Our winters in South Florida have become almost nonexistent just like the rainfall every cold front dries up one it crosses Lake O. I’m hoping the pattern changes soon like NGD said we are going into phase 8, but means nothing unless you have cold air.

That's because winter in S.FL is nonexistent. Consider ourself lucky if we manage to get multiple nights in the 40's & 50's each winter season, which we've already seen.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13760 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:31 pm

psyclone wrote:CPC showing normal temps and precip over the next 2 weeks with no significant below normal anomalies anywhere in the continental US.

One thing I must say about the CPC's Precipitation Outlook is they have frequently busted for S.FL in forecasting above normal precipitation many times throughout the past several months, we have seen little to no precipitation in the past few months.
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