STORM2K

Nice early morning down here with temps in the mid 50s and a brisk breeze. Nothing wild and crazy by any stretch but I would take this for a week and be happy about it. Of course, we're going to be back in the mid to upper 60s for lows almost immediately

There's another shot of cool air on the way for early next week. it's the weekend warm up that's transient.

I like to believe a pattern change is coming but looking at the models still the same,yesterday was more convincing.

FWIW the CPC outlooks now show the northern tier of the country tilting below normal...a key component in getting cold down here is having cold upstream..so that's a start and it will be interesting to see if this marks the beginning of a trend...or not... with subsequent outlooks.

Is this map more convincing? Shows all the below normal anomalies bottled up in the Eastern 2/3's of Canada. That cold will eventually have to go somewhere.

That map is indeed intriguing. The next few weeks may (or may not) get interesting. Overall we've had a pretty nice winter with some good shots of chilly weather. Today was magnificent with a deep blue sky and an invigorating chill. Good stuff.

TheStormExpert wrote:Is this map more convincing? Shows all the below normal anomalies bottled up in the Eastern 2/3's of Canada. That cold will eventually have to go somewhere.

https://i.imgur.com/DI4OrIM.png

The cold in Canada is it moving east or south or just staying in Canada?

All of that arctic cold in Canada will eventually be transported south down into the Central and Eastern Continental United States as the PV gets firmly established. I am rather confident about this! Cross polar flow is very evident now.

The polar vortex will eventually be positioned over Hudson Bay as we get deeper into the next couple of weeks. There could be potentially prolonged periods of cold from January 20 through well into the first half of February. The PV split has been well underway already, with Europe experiencing first a very cold and stormy pattern since the beginning of January. The SSW /MJO apex coinciding should begin the long awaited cold pattern to be felt in North America before this month ends.

I am feeling quite confident now that Old Man Winter will be coming back, possibly in a not so nice way. We could potentially see very cold temps coming for many quite soon.....

boca wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:Is this map more convincing? Shows all the below normal anomalies bottled up in the Eastern 2/3's of Canada. That cold will eventually have to go somewhere.

https://i.imgur.com/DI4OrIM.png

The cold in Canada is it moving east or south or just staying in Canada?

Feb 2015 featured incredible persistent cold in the eastern US but it really didn't punch into florida. The lowest temp recorded that month at Tampa was 34 while many locations in the north registered exceptional cold. Even if the east does get cold there's no certainty or even liklihood that the frigid air will get here..but it is certainly possible and worth watching. Considering the frequency of false alarms at this latitude...I need to see an arctic front plunging south to be a believer...but just like tropical season we watch with interest.

A - NAO is always critical for very cold potential for Florida. This drives potential extreme.cold right down the spine of the peninsula.

My real potential concern for us could be the rare trifecta, + PNA, -AO, - NAO teleconnection indices all aligning at once in the coming weeks. There are indications and trends I am seeing that makes me inclined to reason we may actually see this happen....

As of yesterday Orlando is averaging a whopping 6 degrees above average so far this month due to the very warm start to the month, with average to slight below average temps forecasted for the next few days.
Ensembles don't show the NAO going big time negative any time soon, but we still have to watch what the PV will do to the pattern if indeed it finds a home over Hudson Bay towards the end of the month. The good news to this fast moving pattern across the US over the next 10 days or so is that CA is getting much needed rains.
MJO is currently dying out on Phase 8 but the Euro is trending moving towards phase 4 & 5 in its 5-10 day range.
By this time last year we were talking about the possibilities of 20s coming down to central FL.

I’m taking the when I see it I’ll believe it approach. We are in a moderate drought and we need rain so far this winter is a busted forecast for S Florida. Bring on the cold and pattern change.

psyclone wrote:

boca wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:Is this map more convincing? Shows all the below normal anomalies bottled up in the Eastern 2/3's of Canada. That cold will eventually have to go somewhere.

https://i.imgur.com/DI4OrIM.png

The cold in Canada is it moving east or south or just staying in Canada?

Feb 2015 featured incredible persistent cold in the eastern US but it really didn't punch into florida. The lowest temp recorded that month at Tampa was 34 while many locations in the north registered exceptional cold. Even if the east does get cold there's no certainty or even liklihood that the frigid air will get here..but it is certainly possible and worth watching. Considering the frequency of false alarms at this latitude...I need to see an arctic front plunging south to be a believer...but just like tropical season we watch with interest.

That's a really good point. Who knows whether deep troughing into the southeast CONUS over the coming weeks, might still result in a very tight temperature gradient between Northern and Southern Florida? Whether or not any declared El Nino exists, there certainly does seem to be a fairly entrenched low/mid latitude sub tropical flow that has largely resulted in above normal temps for much of the state during November/December. Of course, this same WSW to West flow during typical El Nino years has often been responsible for some spicy Gulf lows to impact Florida during the late January/February period. I can easily see where a generally typical vigorous mid to upper level disturbance traversing the Gulf in our present pattern, could potentially bump up against a particularly strong arctic outbreak in the upcoming 2-3 week window. Just thinking about it makes me sorta want to hum a few bars of :
"I'm dreaming of a (Fort) White....... dusting, just like the one's North Florida used to know. Where the treetops glisten and children listen, to hear Gators scurry from the snow"

Guess the latest 330 hr. FV3-GFS like's my singing LOL

(This set up might lend itself to any frozen precip to be limited to far N.E. Fla but a tad further south trajectory could bring a little Wintery mix a little further south as well)

Chaser , the possibility of a wintry storm scenario with the upcoming potential large scale pattern across the Deep South and even here over portions of North Florida is within the realm of reason.

Split flow and the potential interaction of the polar and southern stream jet streams is always fascinating when it does happen.Timing is everything in these instances. I will say that with the southern stream jet remaining active, I think we will have a few opprtunities for possible wintry precip over the next few weeks.

I’m not buying any significant cold for FL or the peninsula until I see both the GFS and Euro come into agreement with 5-7 days.

So far this winter has been rather mild for the most part across the NE and upper Midwest, so we’ve only have had to dealt with cooler weather, not colder fortunately.

TheStormExpert wrote:I’m not buying any significant cold for FL or the peninsula until I see both the GFS and Euro come into agreement with 5-7 days.

So far this winter has been rather mild for the most part across the NE and upper Midwest, so we’ve only have had to dealt with cooler weather, not colder fortunately.

I agree this winter is a total bust especially rainfall

TheStormExpert wrote:I’m not buying any significant cold for FL or the peninsula until I see both the GFS and Euro come into agreement with 5-7 days.

So far this winter has been rather mild for the most part across the NE and upper Midwest, so we’ve only have had to dealt with cooler weather, not colder fortunately.

totally agree. Show me the money otherwise bet with persistence. so far this winter has been rather pleasant. I hope it continues.

One way to bring up natural gas prices. Just roll the dice:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/423283 ... ces-higher

Well, both the 12Z EURO earlier today, and this afternoon's 18Z GFS run, along with the UKMET and Canadian models from earlier this morning all show 1040+mb Polar High dropping down into the Northern Plains beginning next Saturday Jan 19. This appears to be a pretty good consensus to me by the reliable models of cold heading south. The PV will keep the cold coming as it gets established near Hudson Bay during the balance of the rest of this month, possibly continuing well into February as well.

This cold spell next weekend will be the first of several cold air intrusions coming down south, especially across the Eastern and Central CONUS beginning next week with the pattern change.