Ah patience Boca. One thing about this science you learn through experience is to learn the nuiances and daily fluctuations of weather, especially a major large scale pattern change such as this one we are now in the midst .
The thing you have to keep in perspective is the entire big picture. There are so many moving, critical components which will determine the extent and magnitude of the cold pattern over the next several weeks.
1. First, the establishment of the Polar Vortex has yet to be completed. It will be around the end of this month for this to be completed. It is forecast to be in position near Hudson Bay
2. The model ensembles are in very good consensus that 500 mb ridging will be quite evident across the Pacific/Western Canada/ Alaska and impressive ridging over Greenland by the end of this month. The models, if they are right about the 500 mb pattern, should yield to a +PNA, -AO and -NAO teleconnections by the start of February. The ridging I am seeing in the long range across Greenland usually always a solid harbinger of a very good -negative NAO . I would be very surprised if this would not materialize, especially given the indicators in the pattern shift now.
3. Expect models in the 5 -10 day range to change with this large massive pattern shift because it is very progressive . Remember, forecasting the timing of these massive Arctic Highs. and these shortwaves/disturbances always, always are very challenging. It is the same for these models in the short to medium term.
4. Once the PV is firmly established, it will be like a running engine. The Constant counter/clockwise rotation of vorticies energy southward will be locked into place for who knows how long? It will be cold air dump after another, recharge and reload. The best analogs to use is 1977-78 winter, when the massive cold pattern lasted up 45 days before finally breaking down. I am not saying this is how this current pattern will fare. However, the potential for this to happen is definitely there.
Just elaboring a bit more. I am trying to keep this all in simplier layman' s terms overall. This is only just a little of what to watch for. I did not even get further into the possible southern stream and polar jet interactions during these next few weeks. I have already discussed this in earlier posts here and on the Deep South and Texas threads. So much to discuss and watch in the coming days. This is why I love this business and enjoy discussing it on my spare time as a member of this fantastic site for over eight years now.
Last edited by northjaxpro
on Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:44 am, edited 3 times in total.
Monitoring the 2018-2019 Meteorological Winter Season from Northeast Florida
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