STORM2K

northjaxpro wrote:

psyclone wrote:Look at the extremely below normal anoms (nearl maxed out) that drop into the great lakes on the latest 8-14 day outlook. This could be the start of the arctic motherlode. Tense times ahead...

Yeah, Psyclone I saw this late this morning. It appears the PV is about the get established, as forecast, near Hudson Bay by the end of that 14 -day outlook.

So, I am very confident that some potentially serious cold will be overtaking the entire Eastern CONUS by the end of this month.

Old Man Winter is coming..... This is no exaggetation on my educated analysis, based on all indications from the model ensembles and the teleconnections are all aligning almost ideally for some big time cold that potentially we have not seen oin many years....

Does that include SE Florida too because we usually miss out on the extreme cold due to the gulf stream ?

boca wrote:

northjaxpro wrote:

psyclone wrote:Look at the extremely below normal anoms (nearl maxed out) that drop into the great lakes on the latest 8-14 day outlook. This could be the start of the arctic motherlode. Tense times ahead...

Yeah, Psyclone I saw this late this morning. It appears the PV is about the get established, as forecast, near Hudson Bay by the end of that 14 -day outlook.

So, I am very confident that some potentially serious cold will be overtaking the entire Eastern CONUS by the end of this month.

Old Man Winter is coming..... This is no exaggetation on my educated analysis, based on all indications from the model ensembles and the teleconnections are all aligning almost ideally for some big time cold that potentially we have not seen oin many years....

Does that include SE Florida too because we usually miss out on the extreme cold due to the gulf stream ?

Boca, we have a -EPO/neutral PNA, -AO and -NAO indices all in progress now. For us, the -NAO most definitely would put the entire Florida peninsula at risk to be impacted by very cold temps, especially by the end of this month, and going into February.

boca wrote:

northjaxpro wrote:

psyclone wrote:Look at the extremely below normal anoms (nearl maxed out) that drop into the great lakes on the latest 8-14 day outlook. This could be the start of the arctic motherlode. Tense times ahead...

Yeah, Psyclone I saw this late this morning. It appears the PV is about the get established, as forecast, near Hudson Bay by the end of that 14 -day outlook.

So, I am very confident that some potentially serious cold will be overtaking the entire Eastern CONUS by the end of this month.

Old Man Winter is coming..... This is no exaggetation on my educated analysis, based on all indications from the model ensembles and the teleconnections are all aligning almost ideally for some big time cold that potentially we have not seen oin many years....

Does that include SE Florida too because we usually miss out on the extreme cold due to the gulf stream ?

Doesn't mean it will get here...but the first step is getting the cold air into position...which this would do. This is still a good ways out so it's going to be important to look for trends and see if they hold together. This afternoon's outlook is the first one that has shown really deep anomalies in that location. Let's continue to monitor and see if it reels in. this is still a good ways out. In the interim...it's worth monitoring the winter storms up that way as snow cover is important to maintain the integrity of arctic air as it spills south. It appears as if a good snowcover is more likely than not starting with a good storm this weekend which is likely to paint the ground white north of the Ohio river.

Agree with your assessment Psyclone. All of the ingredients to bring the cold air down will likely be in place.


It is not a 100% certainty, especially in this science business. However, if I was a betting man, I sure would place quite a bit on the odds of seeing below to much below temps over not just the Eastern and Central CONUS, but most of the continent, of course, in the coming weeks.

models are more emphasising a powerful +PNA ridge towards Feb. At one time I was a bit worried the ridge would be too far west to benifit Florida with a bonafide powerful arctic air mass!

Yes, the 18Z GFS long range does indeed hints at impressive ridging over the Rockies and the Intermountain West region , north into Western Canada. This ridging would definitely be an indication of a + PNA.

If the GFS Operational is correct with this, the +PNA -AO - NAO indices will all be in place.. The rare trifecta teleconnection alignment, as I like to refer as to with regards to the large scale pattern across this continent of North America. We have not seen this during the heart of winter in quite some time.

We are still a minimum of 10-14 days from this, but the potential coming up for some serious cold anomalies are very evident down the road, especially for the Eastern ÇONUS.

Saved 18Z GFS image:

miami nws office say look like we dropping low 50 that what we get here every winter look we wont see 40s unless you live western part dade or sw fl broward may see colder weather and plam beach

Frost. Frost and plenty of it this morning at my.home and across the North Florida region. Some of our reliable colder, interior weather observations are below freezing this morning. We had ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight and into this early morning. Tempetature is sitting just above freezing, 34.2. degrees. We have not seen temps at or below freezing at my house since early December, although we have had several close calls, like this morning.

We will have another close call on Monday morning with a potential freeze. However, no question, I love our odds of seeing significant freezes here within the next 10-14 days.

It has been discussed so much already, but I will add a bit more later on the long range cold potential later on....

Is unbelievable how cold it gets in the interior parts of the Nature coast with light winds, down to the upper 20s in Ocala and Brooksville this morning! Models didn't see that happening.

Oh yeah, those areas on clear skies, calm conditions like this morning are prime radiational cooloing spots indeed. Cecil Commerce on the western end of Jax, is our cold drainage spot in Duval County. They are reporting 29 degrees this morning.

Nothing on this mornings 06z gfs to be overly concerned off in terms of a real artic airmass making it to extreme SFL. We can handle a few nights in the upper 40’s

Inland Hernando and Citrus counties are their own world and never fail to impress when it comes to cold. The vegetation between there and Orlando to the east or Tampa to the south tell quite a story. Whole different climate zone. Cold morning. My thin blood desires a warm up and that starts...now. The best cold is the cold that lives in the extended range.

It’s rare to even get below 45 degrees here along the SE coast so the air tends to moderate quite a bit down here even if the temperatures are 32 in central Florida.

What once a few days ago was looking like a potentially potent arctic blast is now going to be nothing more than a quick cool down that we haven’t seen over a dozen times this winter.

Like I’ve said before, until the NAO goes negative (if ever) we won’t see the significant cold folks up north are dealing with.

From the looks of things as of this morning I highly doubt the NAO goes negative through the rest of this month. It’ll likely stay neutral to positive. Not sure what you’re seeing northjaxpro to drive the NAO negative, could you elaborate more?

NDG wrote:Is unbelievable how cold it gets in the interior parts of the Nature coast with light winds, down to the upper 20s in Ocala and Brooksville this morning! Models didn't see that happening.

https://i.imgur.com/OsGLJSo.gif

Right?? At least as far as radiation cooling events, I've come to jokingly call Brooksville the "Fargo" of Florida I've always been amazed how much colder temps got in and around Brooksville. On the other hand, that same temperature disparity doesn't really apply to Brooksville area during cold advection events.

The NAO is neutral thru the rest of the month from what I’m seeing today and the next front is just a continuation of the fronts we’ve been getting. No big deal.

TheStormExpert wrote:What once a few days ago was looking like a potentially potent arctic blast is now going to be nothing more than a quick cool down that we haven’t seen over a dozen times this winter.

Like I’ve said before, until the NAO goes negative (if ever) we won’t see the significant cold folks up north are dealing with.

From the looks of things as of this morning I highly doubt the NAO goes negative through the rest of this month. It’ll likely stay neutral to positive. Not sure what you’re seeing northjaxpro to drive the NAO negative, could you elaborate more?

What will drive the -NAO? What is the very key driving aspect you ask? Well, I have stated this previously several times:

The establishment and positioning of the Polar Vortex is the key. This process has yet to be completed, and will not for at least within the next 10 days. It is forecast to be in position near Hudson Bay by close to the end of January. The PV will serve as the chief focal point in directing the polar surges down into the CONUS. The teleconnection indices we see indicated now will be taking its influence when the PV gets in place. This is why we are seeing the models changing its solutions as they are adjusting to the variances to the massive large scale pattern change. I stated a few days ago to expect frequent changes in the short to medium term range (5-7 day range)


Large scale pattern shifts like this one are not going to happen quickly. They always are slow to evolve, and this one is not any different. There will be a massive pool of bitter cold which will be building across Central and Eastern Canada by the end of January/ the beginning of February. Long range ensembles are indicating extreme cold amonalies in this part of North America not seen potentially in years. Once the PV is firmly established, it will dictate and funnel chuncks of that air within its vast counter/clockwise rotation south down into eventually into the Eastern CONUS.


So, again, it is a methodical process folks. This is a long marathon in process. This is not a sprint! As I explained in past posts, a large massive cold pattern once locked into place like this one, could last at least a month or possibly longer.


I can keep explaining this ad nauseum to some of you, but it seems it feels like I am beating a dead horse at times...

Your not beating a dead horse we are just anxious for a change and I trust your insights on winter weather as well as tropical weather during hurricane season. Keep us informed I enjoy reading your posts.

boca wrote:Your not beating a dead horse we are just anxious for a change and I trust your insights on winter weather as well as tropical weather during hurricane season. Keep us informed I enjoy reading your posts.

Thanks Boca. I appreciate lending my thoughts and analysis to you guys on here. After all, I consider you all like my weather nerd family members lol...