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gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather

#14061 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:01 pm

Wow incredibly cold for the upper mid west. Just click on a point forecast from NWS such as Chicago and yikes :cold:

Very fortunate this airmass didn’t decide to decend south as the early runs of the globals were showing.

Time is ticking on damaging freeze potential for peninsula Florida but still need to make it through February. There are some hints that the cold could be back for Florida by mid Feb if not sooner.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14062 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:42 pm

this monday was coldest i feel some time we drop into upper 40 that cold enough i hope that coldest we will feel this winter in miami
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Re: Florida Weather

#14063 Postby psyclone » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:07 pm

Well this thread died after a rather anti climactic end to the winter weather drama of the last few weeks. It's a reminder of how frequently we luck out. And make no mistake we really lucked out yet again. we're going to warm up big time. I can't wait. By the time we have a chance to get cold again...we will likely be too late for a big blast of cold. We'll see but as of now it's looking good. It's been an interesting winter with quite a bit of chilly weather but no extremes. Here locally we've had plenty of nights in the 40's but have yet to drop below 40...that's a streak that now appears more likely than not to remain intact.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14064 Postby boca » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:18 pm

When it comes to Florida it looks like we are done with cold fronts for awhile according to NWS Miami, so I expect this thread to be dead.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14065 Postby psyclone » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:00 pm

boca wrote:When it comes to Florida it looks like we are done with cold fronts for awhile according to NWS Miami, so I expect this thread to be dead.


Cold is coming back to the northern plains and west. It may eventually come back at us later in February but climo really starts to stack against big cold later in Feb downstate
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#14066 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:41 am

Currrently 32 .3 degrees at 5:15 a.m. with heavy frost this early morning .This is only the fourth morning of seeing temp at or below freezing all season thus far Looks like we may be headed for potentially the coldest temp reading of the season. We have yet to have a sub 30 degree morning so far. We may see that later this morning up unril around 8:00 a.m. or so.

There will.be yet another shortwave disturbance moving across Florida on Saturday, albeit this one looks to be significantly weaker than last weekend's soaker. The ssouthern jet stream will probably stay active at least into the first half of February as well. It has been active all Fall/Winter 2018 into 2019 to this juncture. I have already received over 5 inches of rainfall in the past 10 days as we end January. It has definitely been a decent El Nino pattern in my opinion for sure that has been in place since November.

Well, our gold ole Southeast U.S. ridge will set up shop for a while, beginning this upcoming week, giving folks around here a spring fever rush for the first week to 10 days of February. We will bask in the warmth as the PV retreats for the first half of February.

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There will be a likelihood of a reset of the large scale blocking pattern still in place over North America in a couple of weeks. It took a period of several weeks for the SSW event to finally.get established. Well, it will take quite awhile for such a massive blocking pattern to break itself down. This pattern could take 30-45 days before finally loosening its grip over the continent. There will be at least one more significant lobe or piece of the PV Anomaly that will drop back down into the Eastern ÇONUS as we get into mid February. Long range 500 mb analysis continues to hint at massive blocking over Greenland and Western Canada into Alaska.

How much colder is yet to be determined? It will depend on the teleconnections, especially the NAO. Will the NAO ever go negative? I will just for now say that colder temperatures will be back across the Eastern CONUS by mid month.

Central and South Florida looks pretty good now going forward in terms of escaping very cold temps the rest of the way, unless we get a significant tanking of the NAO. Mother Nature keeps having mercy on us in Florida about that factor, so as long as that continues, farther down state looks good to avoid extreme cold the month of February.

I am not out of the woods living here in Jax until at least mid-March of seeing potential freezes here in Northeast Florida. We still have about six weeks of potential winter left to get through before I can even think about planting the spring garden.

Have a great day everyone !
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Re: Florida Weather

#14067 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:51 am

At the end of January, climo is definitely now stacked against significant cold making it to South Florida. I'm sure it's happened at some point, but I myself cannot remember any truly cold weather in February, just the occasional transient cool shot if anything.

The one cold snap outside of December and January that I do remember was the one that followed the March 1993 Superstorm.....but what was that, like a 1 in 500 year event?
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Re: Florida Weather

#14068 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:12 am

Patrick99 wrote:At the end of January, climo is definitely now stacked against significant cold making it to South Florida. I'm sure it's happened at some point, but I myself cannot remember any truly cold weather in February, just the occasional transient cool shot if anything.

The one cold snap outside of December and January that I do remember was the one that followed the March 1993 Superstorm.....but what was that, like a 1 in 500 year event?

What about February 2010.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14069 Postby NDG » Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:44 pm

Still no help from the NAO for the immediate gulf coast and FL for cold wx lovers, still forecasted to stay positive through the next 2 weeks. With the PNA now forecasted to go negative I can almost give the all clear to central Fl's I-4 corridor that we will go freeze free through the rest of the Meteorological winter, which is one more month, but I know better than that. I can surely say that chances of a freeze for the I-4 Corridor this winter are diminishing by the day 8-)

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Re: Florida Weather

#14070 Postby psyclone » Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:59 pm

I definitely agree we're done with freezes with the first half of Feb tilting warm. We've still got plenty of chances for chilly weather to be drawn south through march with any big storms that get going up the east coast. We'll see how things go but last year featured a good bit of that after the February heat wave. We certainly lucked out the with Midwest cold. Even up there a dramatic warm up is on deck with many areas currently below zero expected to hit the 40's and 50's by Sunday...so while the cold was severe it was brief. As a warm weather fan I'm delighted (but not surprised) by this turn of events. Respect long range potential but don't buy into severe cold until it's incoming. In this case it never was...it just always lived in long range fantasy camp. OK... let's get warm and stay that way :D
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Re: Florida Weather

#14071 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:34 am

The Weather Company has the FL peninsula shaded in orange for February meaning near or slightly above average temperatures. CPC has all of the Southeast in orange for the newly released February temperature outlook. So I think it is safe to say that we dodged yet another bullet when it comes to cold or record cold like we saw in the winter months of 2010.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14072 Postby psyclone » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:31 am

The temp/dewpoint rebound feels divine. February is typically an early spring month in Florida so the timing here is perfect. Lots of warm weather biking is in store for me 8-)
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Re: Florida Weather

#14073 Postby NDG » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:48 pm

psyclone wrote:The temp/dewpoint rebound feels divine. February is typically an early spring month in Florida so the timing here is perfect. Lots of warm weather biking is in store for me 8-)


I am planning to enjoy my weekend in my back yard, I even have to cut my grass and will enjoy it, lol.
The rainy second half of the month along with no frost or freeze made my grass grow along with the weeds.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14074 Postby NDG » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:52 pm

FireRat wrote:I posted this on the deep south winter thread as well a few days ago, this could give a hint of what may be to come...looks very interesting next month according to the weather channel:

According to the Weather Channel, February will very likely be far below average, resulting in prolonged bitterly cold conditions in the Eastern US. I don't think I've ever seen a forecast that below average for the southeast before, have a look!...

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-01-16-february-march-april-2019-us-temperature-outlook-weather-company

https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/wsi_feb_0116.png?v=at&w=485&h=273

You guys down in FL should keep a wary eye next month, they've been saying Feb would be the coldest winter month this year for a while now, and their graphic sure has crazy colors, could this support even more that idea about the NAO going down big time soon? When have we ever seen "well below average" and even "most below avg" in these parts before? that sure got my attention, they smell something! :cold:


Looks like it will be a big bust by TWC unless the second half of February the NAO plunges.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14075 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:25 pm

Weird weather down here for February 1 right now. Increasing warmth and humidity, mostly sunny, but with the occasional brief passing moderately heavy shower. Like late April weather.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14076 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:27 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:At the end of January, climo is definitely now stacked against significant cold making it to South Florida. I'm sure it's happened at some point, but I myself cannot remember any truly cold weather in February, just the occasional transient cool shot if anything.

The one cold snap outside of December and January that I do remember was the one that followed the March 1993 Superstorm.....but what was that, like a 1 in 500 year event?

What about February 2010.


As I recall, at least way down here, our extreme cold was over in January. I don't remember anything in February.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14077 Postby boca » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:48 pm

The weather channel is way off the NAO is forecast to stay positive for the next two weeks and we will be dry and warm for the foreseeable future unless the pattern changes.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14078 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:09 pm

Patrick99 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:At the end of January, climo is definitely now stacked against significant cold making it to South Florida. I'm sure it's happened at some point, but I myself cannot remember any truly cold weather in February, just the occasional transient cool shot if anything.

The one cold snap outside of December and January that I do remember was the one that followed the March 1993 Superstorm.....but what was that, like a 1 in 500 year event?

What about February 2010.


As I recall, at least way down here, our extreme cold was over in January. I don't remember anything in February.

I remember seeing overnight lows in the mid-upper 30’s a few times, even into March.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14079 Postby psyclone » Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:27 pm

I've put in a request to establish a southeast ridge and run the clock out on what's left of Winter. This request has been granted. By the time that pattern relents...Winter will be safely in the rear view mirror. Not only will there be no freeze...in the Tampa Bay area there will be no sub 40 lows for the entire winter. This is the weather equivalent of the Reese's ads...Not sorry!...or...put another way. ..like a Browns fan...there's always next year!
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Re: Florida Weather

#14080 Postby FireRat » Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:37 pm

True indeed NDG, wow what a turnaround they did with their Feb outlook, now they say the upper midwest and plains get the apex of colder than normal temps. FL is in the ORANGE, lol. Could surely be a bust if the NAO doesn't tank at all.

Their old forecast for Feb resembled more like what happened the last days of January across the nation.
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