STORM2K

boca wrote:Chaser1 you can’t control the weather just report it.

We had quite a few nights in the 50’s and 40’s this isn’t Chicago...bring on spring

The start to meteorological Spring is only 18 days away.

Indeed. The annual pollen blizzard is in full swing. while we didn't have a severe winter blast or a big freeze this year we definitely had winter with many cool shots that started in November. We had many nights in the 40's and plenty of daytime highs in the 60's and even some 50's here. Hoodies and jackets got plenty of use this cool season. While I'm in no hurry for Summer's heat, a long period of warm and sunny conditions is certainly welcome and Spring tends to deliver the goods...along with the occasional cool snap. Last year did feature quite a bit of chilly weather in March so we're certainly game for cool down if the stars align. It's much easier to cheer on cooldowns when severe freezes are off the table

boca wrote:Chaser1 you can’t control the weather just report it.

So so true. Still, it just seems as if the Globals' medium range have done a better recent job.... but maybe not? Upper air support with this weekends front is looking much less impressive. (Damn Psyclone's Magic torch deal ).

I'll give y'all this much.... it's true that at least those of us in Central Florida can't complain about a lack of reasonably chilly cool-downs (such as the year before). I'm just going to have to hold out for two or three more. C'mon 450 hr. forecast lol!.

I'm cheering on the cooldown. it was really toasty today with mid 80's around here and some record ties. We don't want to rush things. Interesting to note how much of the continental US is below normal and expected to remain so...except for the far southeast...mainly Florida. I'm really hoping for a normalish Spring...so we can go as long as possible without needing heat or AC...

psyclone wrote:I'm cheering on the cooldown. it was really toasty today with mid 80's around here and some record ties. We don't want to rush things. Interesting to note how much of the continental US is below normal and expected to remain so...except for the far southeast...mainly Florida. I'm really hoping for a normalish Spring...so we can go as long as possible without needing heat or AC...

What cool down?

Wednesday and Thursday for starters...looks like another dose of cooler temps this weekend. If we make our forecast low of 50 Thursday morning...that's going to be very noticeable...not sure what's on deck downstate but it looks like the 80's and juicy dews are going to be chased out of here in exchange for more seasonable temps

It looks like a pretty good round of rain coming in for much of the peninsula as a front passes through the region into early Wednesday. Hopefully, everyone, including down in the southeast peninsula, will get some beneficial rain. We will cool back down to seasonal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday mornings here in Jax, with low temps in the 40s and max temps in the upper 60s each day. Central Florida should see lows down near 50 in some areas during this period as well.

Looking out 7-10 days, it appears that the Southeast U.S. Ridge will return for the week of February 17 - 21. It will keep us warm across the peninsula this period. Models showing another cold front pressing down on the ridge and approaching the peninsula. late next week around 2/21. The southern jet stream also looks to become active again during this period as well as it interacts with a front, especially near the end of the next 10 day period from Feb 21-23.
_______________________________________________________


One potential fly in the ointment is for Sunday. There are some timing differences with the models as a fast moving shortwave disturbance is being shown moving through the Deep South on Sunday. The GFS is much more aggressive with this potential on this morning's 06Z run. Hopefully for race fans headed to the Daytona 500, the models will back off on this disturbance or keep most of the dynamics well to the north on Sunday. It is definitely something to keep an eye on the next couple of days with the model runs.


Have a great day everyone!

My car is completely coated in pollen. Looking forward to the washout tomorrow

Well so much for the cooler temps previously forecast for the weekend in Central FL. The cool shot won't make it in this time.
Will have to keep the A/C running after all.

We are getting a legit hefty thunderstorm. excellent

Pretty good thunderstorm here! Wind gusts to 46 mph at Clearwater airport and lots of lightning. Good to see heavy rain washing pollen off.

Getting a heavy shower in Miami right now. Sky is as dark as I've seen it at this time of day in a long time.

I'm not hearing any thunder, but based on what I see on the radar, it seems possible.

60 degrees at noon here. That's a legit front. It does appear the previously scheduled weekend cool down has been canceled so this is it for awhile.

The CPC outlooks continue to depict southeast ridge blowtorch conditions for Florida while vast swaths of the remainder of the US (especially the west) are below normal. The southeast ridge is almost the default new normal for us.

The Southeast U.S. ridge has been an ever present fixture for our region seemingly since the 2009-10 winter season. We have had mostly above average winter seasons here in this region ever since. It has been our pseudo shield that is for sure many times over!


This winter so far has only brought 4 freezes measured here at my locale and for the NWS Jax WFO. The normal amount of freezes is 16 per season here in Northeast Florida. We have not come anywhere near that number in recent memory.

This definitely has been a very wet, above average temperature wise this winter season here in Northeast Florida. The El Nino was cold and wet mostly during the 2009-10 season. Well, we definitely have received the wet with this particular El Nino for sure this season, but we just did not get any cold extremes.

It got colder than forecast across North Florida early this morning. Temperatures have ended up at least 5 degrees colder than what guidance had shown just 36 hours ago.

It did drop to 35.7 degrees here this morning. Some spots, like Lake City, in the interior areas, were reporting temps just above the freeze mark.

A beautiful Valentine's Day from Mother Nature for today after this frosty start, we will have sunny skies here and afternoon highs in the upper 60s

Latest model runs show that conditions look to be pretty good on Sunday for the Daytona 500. A shortwave disturbance looks to track well off to the north of the region. Partly cloudy skies are forecast and temps near 80 degrees for the race.

Nice little cooldown. Felt like more of a damp cooldown this morning than our usual blast of dry weather but I'll take it. Especially since it seems that there may not be much more up the pipe for some time.

Next week looks to feature torchy to exceptional warmth...comparable to...a year ago with mid to upper 80's for highs inland and lows around 70 in an increasingly muggy airmass. This is really crazy considering it still very much a "cool" time of year..

Well, like you pointed out in your post above on this page, in which I agree with you, the Southeast U.S. ridge is the default normal for us now each and every supposed "Winter" season here.

A good possibility areas down across the interior north central and central peninsula may hit 90 degrees middle of next week. Model guidance is strongly hinting at this. Many of you will be cranking the air conditioners next week, including me as well up here in Jax.

I just miss the old days in which we used to have at least average to near average winters around here temperature-wise. We just do no even get that around here anymore

Oh well, the summer heat lovers will salivate heavy about next week's weather for sure......