STORM2K

The slight risk area has also been downgraded to marginal risk for most of the previously-covered areas, and the marginal risk has been downgraded to general for most of the Jax metro area.

Also, this is heading my way right now:
042
WWUS82 KJAX 131711
SPSJAX

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
111 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019

FLZ032-033-131800-
Clay FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
111 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS AND
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* At 110 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm near Kingsley, or 8 miles northeast
of Keystone Heights, moving east at 30 mph.

* Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, funnel
clouds, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and minor flooding due to heavy
rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
Green Cove Springs, Kingsley, Camp Blanding and Penney Farms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2985 8203 2998 8204 3004 8166 2985 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 268DEG 24KT 2989 8197

$$

AK

Interesting.

71 in Tampa and 94 in Miami. Feels wonderful on the cool side of the tracks

Well, if the long range GFS is correct, it is looking like we are in store for a prolonged period of strong ridging, both at the surface and aloft, for at least the next 10 days or possibly longer. The Bermuda ridge will be the dominant feature and it appears that much of the deep tropical moisture will not be coming toward the peninsula any time soon. Most of the deepest moisture looks to be supressed down across the Caribbean .

So, unless we see a drastic change with the pattern, or some sort of tropical wave/ trough axis traversing along the southern periphery of the ridge axis, it looks as if the peninsula will be entering a dry weather period for much of the region. So, if long range guidance is close to being right, it looks now through at least the Memorial Day holiday weekend we will see plenty of sun and beach weather on tap in the coming days and possibly through to the end part of the month.

Torch in the southeast while a deep trough sets up in the west. It's gonna get hot with minimal convection as our rainy season preview reverts back to normal for a time. Some areas like south florida start the rainy season sooner but here in coastal west central fl...we're still a month away from typical reliable seabreeze driven convection...so we're entitled to a few weeks of good beach/pool weather and it looks like an extended dose is on the way.

Yeah, Mother Nature teased us a bit with that disturbance that formed in the Bahamas earlier this month, which bought rain across a good portion of the peninsula. It seemed the rainy season was off to a quick start.

But, yes, with how the forecast looks to be shaping up in the long range, we now are not likely to see the true rainy season kick into gear, as we would expect it to, until sometime in the first half of June.

Also we could be looking at very hot temps down the road as well , as you mentioned Psyclone. The ridging is actually forecast to expand across the Southeast U.S. next week, both at the surface and the upper levels. A large area of sinking air (subsidence) could maximize diurnal heating across the region down the road! The potential of an early season heat wave could happen across the Deep South , and even areas of the Eastern U.S. seaboard by the Memorial holiday weekend. This is something to monitor for sure in the days and weeks to come. Summer is about to really get cranking....

Some of our hottest temps have historically happened in late May/early June just prior to the commencement of the rainy season with the combo of drier conditions (both ground and dewpoints) and nearly maxed solar insolation big contributors. While we have pretty good ground moisture due to recent rains, things can dry out in a hurry. It is not too late for a short fused fire season should the pattern favor that and it seems to me it does. The combo of above normal temps (when normal is already hot) and below normal precip (when normal is still pretty dry)...tells us we're gonna sweat. Some mid to upper 90's type highs over the interior in the latter half of May seems more probable than not. Coastal areas are going to see water temps hit the bathwater zone by the start of hurricane season too. Ultimately it is the super warm water (and resultant massive evaporation) that gives us the requisite moisture for the rainy season...so a heatwave is what we need to get daily summer convection

I saw the long range guidance showing potential triple digit max temps across much of North Florida, much of GA and into the Carolinas, beginning May 24 and extending into the Memorial Holiday weekend. Uggh!! That would be brutal if it manifests.

Umm...

12 E Fernandina Beach [Amz450 Co, FL] BROADCAST MEDIA reports WATER SPOUT at 7:15 AM EDT -- WATERSPOUT OFFSHORE AMELIA ISLAND. LASTED FOR AROUND 5 MINUTES.LOCATION GIVEN WAS BASED ON RADAR.
12 E Fernandina Beach [Amz450 Co, FL] BROADCAST MEDIA reports WATER SPOUT at 7:30 AM EDT -- WATERSPOUT OFFSHORE AMELIA ISLAND. LASTED FOR AROUND 5 MINUTES. TIME AND LOCATION GIVEN WAS BASED ON RADAR.

Wow. That's...not pleasant. I wish northeast Florida had more representation on these forums. It would be interesting to hear from people up in Nassau County right now. There weren't any marine warnings or weather statements active when these happened, to my knowledge.

Also, is it just me, or is anyone else kind of disappointed by the relative dry spell that we will be experiencing over the next couple weeks? In a way, I wish that the weather would be more eventful. Keeps me on my toes.

After those heavy rains everything is lush but I see it isnt going to rain for the next ten days. Boring!

NWS Jax says that there's a 25-40% chance of rain (!!!) near the I-75 corridor today. None of that will make its way near where I live, though.

After that, it's looking to be bone dry for up to two weeks.

I am not happy with the sudden lack of rain coming. SW Florida is not ready to bake.

<25% chance of rain throughout almost all of NWS Jax's coverage area tomorrow.

Looks like temperatures might be hitting near the triple digits where I live at the beginning of the work week after next (~8 days from now). I'm glad I'm on break until July 1. I would hate having to walk across campus in that sort of heat.

We remain on track for a protracted period of above normal temps and below normal precip with a good chance of a multi day run of excessive heat over the Memorial day weekend. Lots of mid to upper 90's with near 100 degree highs away from the coast from central florida northward across the Carolina coastal plain. Hopefully dewpoints remain sane during this episode so temps can drop a tad at night.

As if FL is going into a La Nina like pattern over the next few days with such a strong mid level ridge capping the atmosphere, great beach weather.

We remain on track for an extended period of above normal and perhaps record early season heat over the southeast including northern and interior central florida. multiple days of 95-100+ degree highs are now appearing in forecasts and that includes the Memorial day weekend. Plenty of folks are not fans of the heat but I must say it's kind of nice not having to worry about big storms disrupting beach and pool time so make the best of it and plan some time by the water or in an air conditioned venue. This is the price we sometimes pay for living in a warm climate.

Waiting for the rainy season like...

AdamFirst wrote:Waiting for the rainy season like...

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/019/277/confusedtravolta.jpg

It came and went.

Yes the Florida weather is one boring yawn and I have to deal with the lovebugs because I’m heading to Orlando for Memorial Day weekend. If anyone has any ideas on how to get them off the car I’m listening. I heard getting the car waxed just before, or using the bounce sheets from tide will work as well.

Rainy season false starts are common. The heat we're going to experience will warm the sea temps and set the stage for the real rainy season to get underway in June. Memorial day weekend is going to be sunny and hot and live up to its reputation as the nicest (in terms of fair weather) of the Summery holidays in Florida.

It will be a scorcher this holiday weekend. We saw it coming way back the past week or so. Mid 90s beginning Friday for Jax metro and near 100 degrees for Sunday and Monday into Tuesday of next week. Heat indices anywhere from 105 degrees! The Jacksonville Jazz Festival will be very hot out there. Hydrate!! Hydrate!!