As expected during this week, we have seen appreciable daily scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the region. I have picked up an additional 2.5 inches of rain since Monday here at my home station, with about a little over an inch of that amount measured here in a thunderstorm yesterday afternoon.
As I mentioned in my post earlier back on Sunday night, model guidance suggested that the upper level ridge will re-establish itself across Florida and across the GOM. GFS this morning continues to emphasize the ridge , which actually shows 500 mb height rises beginning today and through the weekend. As a result, we will see the return of hot temperatures beginning today and this weekend. Guidance is indicating mid 90s for Friday and mid-upper 90s for Jax area for Saturday into Sunday.
As Psyclone, Chaser1 and others have astutely mentioned, this upcoming heat wave will be potentially even worse than the heat wave we experienced across the region back in late May through into the first week of June. The huge saving grave during that event was the drier air, which made dealing with the intense heat more tolerable. The adverse effect; however, were the wildfires, which erupted across our region. Now, the added rain and moisture we have received since that previous heat wave, will undoubtedly lead to much more oppressive humidity values, from now through the weekend. But, we hopefully, and likely, will not have a wildfire problem this go around.
GFS 06Z run this morning is showing decent shortwave energy and disturbances traversing through the northwesterly flow of the upper ridge axis, especially on Saturday afternoon. GFS and 0Z EURO last night shows this energy pivoting southeast down into Southern GA and into North Florida. The potential and dynamics look conducive for the possibility of severe thunderstorms this weekend. Temps into the mid-upper 90s will only help to add more fuel to the fire in sparking these storms this weekend. So, this is definitely something to monitor as we head into this upcoming weekend.
Meanwhile, the Saharian dust across the North Atlantic basin will definitely keep a lid on any tropical cyclone development from occuring anytime soon. I think it is fair to rationalize at this juncture that we likely will get through the rest of this month without seeing any name storms. We could be looking at well into July, if then even, before any potential development out there.
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019