STORM2K

Looks like a classic west coast jackpot for late day convection the next couple of days. Cloud cover and rain cooled air may actually yield a sub 90 high tomorrow. I will happily accept!

classic afternoon rush tampa bay seabreeze collision on the docket. I would not be surprised to see some pulse severe thanks to peak heating and seabreeze forcing...and the east coast breeze is moving quickly so a coastal convective zipper job from Charlotte harbor up to the nature coast is going to make for some fast changing and spicy weather from 4 to 8pm...with rain cooled air as a prize. this is the summer pattern I love...

Got hammered again in St. Petersburg Florida. We had a severe thunderstorm warning and some strong wind gusts over 40 to 50 mph.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/MyjKTsEbc7fBUfwG7

I don't live anywhere near here, but:

449
WFUS52 KTBW 282014
TORTBW
FLC071-282045-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0003.190628T2014Z-190628T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
414 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Lee County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 414 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over East Dunbar, or over Fort Myers, moving northwest
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
East Dunbar around 420 PM EDT.
Fort Myers around 425 PM EDT.
McGregor around 430 PM EDT.
Lochmoor Waterway Estates and Palmona Park around 435 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include North
Fort Myers, Page Field Airport, Suncoast Estates, Tice, Page Park,
Whiskey Creek and Gateway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2661 8175 2656 8180 2661 8198 2673 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 114DEG 15KT 2661 8182

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

TBW

Florida weather. Gotta love it.

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Got hammered again in St. Petersburg Florida. We had a severe thunderstorm warning and some strong wind gusts over 40 to 50 mph.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/MyjKTsEbc7fBUfwG7

There was also some small hail with that severe storm in southern Pinellas as well.

Also to show how juiced the atmosphere is, a second line of storms is moving into eastern Hillsborough and Pasco, will be interesting to see if it holds together as it gets to the coast where the atmosphere was worked over by the previous late afternoon/early evening storms.

UPDATE: And that would be a "no" as it's turned into a large area of stratiform rain after crossing the Veterans Expressway.

I noticed the extended outlooks have tilted back to high odds of above normal temps and below normal precip which would imply another episode of meltdown heat..enjoy the "cool" while it lasts

I'm just glad the Saharan dust cleared our area, next batch entering the Caribbean is forecasted to stay to the south of us.

"Is it going to rain?"

"I don't know, it's kind of a question mark"

From an AFD issued by NWS Jacksonville this afternoon:

This change in flow will result in temperatures dropping
into the mid and lower 90s by Saturday, however this will also
result in amplified PWAT values, with levels reaching potentially
as high as 2.5 inches, which will keep heat index temperatures
above the 100 degree mark going into the weekend, with apparent
temperatures as high as 106 being possible.

Well...I tend to think of the season for meltdown heat as May-September....so July represents the mid point... so there's that.. A super hot 4th is on the docket

Yeah, I guess it's to be expected.

Today was the first day since late April that I've been in Gainesville, and I have to say, it's kind of gross. Also, just like what I saw last summer, the windshield of my car is basically embroidered with the remains of several insects that were unlucky enough to get in my way while I was doing 60+ on State Road 16 this morning.

I REALLY should get going back home before I get stuck in any afternoon seabreeze-induced storms. POPs are on the low side throughout the area atm, but there's a lot of room for error since I'm gonna be going through three different counties.

psyclone wrote:Well...I tend to think of the season for meltdown heat as May-September....so July represents the mid point... so there's that.. A super hot 4th is on the docket

You just know it's too hot in Florida when.......

Even shade trees are looking for shade

Today is the 68th day in a row that the NAO is negative and why couldn’t we have this pattern during the winter when it counts.

I'm delighted to see rain chances have been bumped for west coasters on the 4th with the anticipated return of an easterly wind pattern. Last year we really lucked out with rain cooled air in place for the evening festivities. Hoping we thread the needle again.

A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for a storm a few miles north of where I am. Quarter size hail has been reported by trained spotters. The storm is expected to be in my immediate location soon.

Edited July 3:

The thunderstorm eventually did end up at where I live. When it arrived in my area, it was still severe-warned for 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. I'm not sure of the exact magnitude of the hail it brought to my area since I had been inside when the thunderstorm was really at its worst, but I know there was some. By the time I had gotten outside, the thunderstorm had begun to weaken, and the warning was cancelled a few minutes later. I didn't see any damage on my block. My car is five years older than I am, and it already has a significant amount of hail damage to the roof and is in overall rough physical shape, so I really wasn't able to appreciate if any additional damage had been done. For what it's worth, the "nicer" cars parked in front of my house didn't have any dents on them from hail.

Today was even more interesting. Severe thunderstorms bombarded the Jax metro area again this afternoon. A 69 MPH wind gust was reported in southeast Duval County. I also narrowly missed out on getting hit by an almost stationary severe storm that affected most of central Clay County. I think at least five SVRs have been issued so far today for parts of the First Coast area. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are affecting more inland parts of north-central/northeast Florida right now.

The heat advisory issued yesterday for most of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia was also expanded this morning to include the entirety of NWS Jacksonville's coverage area, and NWS Tallahassee also issued a heat advisory for several counties in the Big Bend/Nature Coast and two in SOWEGA. A new heat advisory was issued today and remains in effect until tomorrow for the same areas.

Here's to hoping for some well timed convection to moderate this heat. Last night storms formed between about 1 and 3 am along the coast in Pasco county (no doubt aided by 90 degree shelf waters) and yielded an exceptional Catatumbo-style light show with non stop lightning and thunder. while the timing wasn't optimal...I couldn't resist porch sitting and watching in awe. Humans have nothing on nature's fireworks when they reach peak potential.

Yes, up here in north FL/south GA, it does look as if the threat of locally heavy rainfall due to very slow storm motion might somewhat mitigate the extent of the heat later this afternoon and this evening. Hopefully, there isn't a repeat of what happened yesterday, and the damaging winds and large hail are kept to a minimum.

Still, this is probably not gonna be optimal barbecue weather, sorry to say.

It still is mighty hot, as has been the case all summer long. Got an afternoon thunderstorm here yesterday afternoon, but it still measured 97.4 degrees before the storms. The storms provide quick cooling relief only briefly if you get lucky to get underneath them, but the humidity after the rain is just as bad as the intense heat beforehand. No.win situation right now for me. At least we are not in a drought situation though. It can always be worse.


Currently it is 96.2 degrees at 2:25 p.m. this afternoon. Heat index at 103 currently. It has been miserable for yours truly. Max temps have been at 95 degrees or above consistently for the past 10 days now! We should see storms fire up after about 4:00 across the region and last into the evening. Some of the storms will bring heavy downpours with the slow movement. Strong staight line winds and hail of course are possible in some of these storm cells. Typical summer weather for us of course. Still just too hot!

Otherwise, enjoy the rest of the July 4 holiday. The tropics remain dead out there in the North Atlantic basin thanks to ole SAL, keeping a nice stabilizing lid on the atmosphere and that always is good. We may not see any tropical cyclone develipment out there until next month at the earliest.

we are getting crushed here with tremendous heavy rain and lightning. I hope people are practicing lightning safety...it is downright dangerous and has been for a couple of hours...Hopefully this diffuses the atmospheric bomb and things settle down for the evening. it has certainly broken the heat..

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: It still is mighty hot, as has been the case all summer long. Got an afternoon thunderstorm here yesterday afternoon, but it still measured 97.4 degrees before the storms. The storms provide quick cooling relief only briefly if you get lucky to get underneath them, but the humidity after the rain is just as bad as the intense heat beforehand. No.win situation right now for me. At least we are not in a drought situation though. It can always be worse.

That is really a shame. A severe/flooding threat is like adding insult to injury if the storms don't really have the capacity to provide any substantial relief from the heat. Severe storms have already begun firing up in our surrounding areas in the last few minutes.

I can commiserate with you about the heat. Walking around in Gainesville has been very miserable for me, especially since a lot of the buses at school are not running thanks to summer. I am also driving there every day now, but at least my car has air conditioning (for now).