STORM2K

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:40 pm**

So much convection going on now in Central Fl. This is not a good trend for community fireworks events.
Will be touch and go up until dusk.

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightnin ... php?map=32

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:41 pm**

Dry as a bone and stifling hot in South Florida. The ridge just doesn’t want to loosen its grip over the area. Fireworks should happen as planned this evening given little to no convection around.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:51 am**

gatorcane wrote:Dry as a bone and stifling hot in South Florida. The ridge just doesn’t want to loosen its grip over the area. Fireworks should happen as planned this evening given little to no convection around.

At least it wasn't a complete washout like last 4th of July was. If I remember correctly the 4th on Flagler fireworks were delayed some thanks to mother nature.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2019 1:56 pm**

a southwest flow setting up with shelf waters as warm as they are brings an attendant risk of a torrential rain event(s)...on the gulf coast especially from west central florida up through the big bend region...and will precede any potential tc development in the northern gulf. The weather pattern is looking far more interesting than usual for early/mid July.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:14 pm**

psyclone wrote:a southwest flow setting up with shelf waters as warm as they are brings an attendant risk of a torrential rain event(s)...on the gulf coast especially from west central florida up through the big bend region...and will precede any potential tc development in the northern gulf. The weather pattern is looking far more interesting than usual for early/mid July.

Yes it is Psyclone. There are some spots in the GOM which are approaching 90 degrees ssts. Any vorticity/ disturbance that can fester down there within the next week really bears watching. Of course EURO is strongly hinting at this potential next week in the GOM.

Posted: **Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:04 pm**

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

NHC just issued an official statement on the above developments.

Posted: **Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:28 pm**

Well, if you have not been getting rain in your region up to this point, well you will not have to wait much longer. A very rich moisture-laden atmosphere will be hovering over the peninsula going forward from now through to possibly the end of next week. A shortwave disturbance and low pressure trough will move south from the TN Valley tonight and into the Northeast GOM by Monday evening. It is forecast to fester in the NE GOM for several days , which in turn will pump a juicy, very moist south/ southwest flow across the entire peninsula through the middle of this upcoming week. There will be an abundance of rain and thunderstorms across the state from now into this upcoming week. Some of the rain will produce some very heavy rainfall in areas the next several days and into next week.

Meanwhile, we will all be monitoring the situation with the disturbance in the Northeast GOM during the next several days. NHC already has it at a 20% probability to develop within 5 days, and the disturbance has yet to even reach the Gulf yet. Model guidance continues to build on potential tropical cyclone development in the next 5 days. Lots to monitor in the days to come.

Posted: **Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:09 am**

Formation probability throughout five days has been upgraded to 40% this morning. Super interesting.

Posted: **Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:18 am**

Well, Miami AFD mentioned clouds keeping the heating down this AM and thus delaying or hindering potential for storms today.....but so far that has not been the case. Strong solar heating for the past couple hours where I am. Hoping we get some good storms.

Edit - 1:30PM, it has become extremely dark here, yet somehow managing to barely rain a drop.

Posted: **Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:07 am**

Wow, a ton of convection sitting just offshore Flamingo and in FL Bay early this morning. Enhanced by 92L?

Posted: **Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:40 pm**

992
WUUS52 KJAX 112137
SVRJAX
FLC019-031-109-112215-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0103.190711T2137Z-190711T2215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
537 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern St. Johns County in northeastern Florida...
Northeastern Clay County in northeastern Florida...
Southwestern Duval County in northeastern Florida...

* Until 615 PM EDT.

* At 536 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Green Cove
Springs, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Orange Park, Green Cove Springs, Mandarin, Fruit
Cove, Arlington, Fleming Island, Ortega, Oakleaf Plantation and
Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. This storm may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2999 8148 2989 8169 3029 8202 3041 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 150DEG 23KT 3002 8164

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HESS

This is about to pass over me; I'm already getting some pretty violent thunder. I'm hoping the tornado threat doesn't materialize.

Edit:

154
WWUS52 KJAX 112149
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
549 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

FLC019-031-109-112215-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-190711T2215Z/
St. Johns FL-Clay FL-Duval FL-
549 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS...NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL
COUNTIES...

At 548 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fleming Island,
or near Fruit Cove, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile
homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Orange Park, Green Cove Springs, Mandarin, Fruit Cove,
Fleming Island, Ortega, Oakleaf Plantation, Bellair-Meadowbrook
Terrace and Switzerland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is may produce widespread wind damage across Mandarin.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. This storm may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3003 8153 2997 8174 3029 8202 3041 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 150DEG 23KT 3009 8168

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

HESS

Naturally, it had to get worse as soon as it got to where I live. When the storm completely exits my area, I am planning on going outside and evaluating any possible damage.

At the time of writing, the storm has made its way to near the Duval-Clay border, and it is probably gonna start annoying the people in Duval/Nassau soon, as a new warning has been issued for those areas.

Another edit: I did take a walk throughout my immediate neighborhood and saw a few scattered small tree branches, but that was all.

Posted: **Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:31 pm**

Barry's clouds and rain have certainly provided a well deserved break from the heat and taken our coastal waters back into a more typical range. it's been pretty pleasant by summer standards.

Posted: **Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:32 am**

Interesting MCS-like impulse moved through South Florida this morning and booking it east through the Bahamas now. What was that? Outflow boundary Barry spit out our way maybe? I thought we were supposed to have gone back to another SAL regime by now.

Posted: **Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:52 am**

Wow. Deep easterly flow not only here in SFL but all across the tropics and subtropics from Africa to the GOM. I think we are in for at least 1 week of really boring, hot weather.

Posted: **Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:41 pm**

I feel like this is yet another odd South Florida rainy season. A few days here and there when it rains hard, book-ended by these many days/weeks of not only zero rain, but barely any clouds too. It's just not what I remember from when I was younger - I swear that it basically DID rain almost every day, at some point. The only real question was whether you'd get it morning, afternoon, or late at night.

Posted: **Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:01 pm**

I remember when I first moved here in the early 90's thunderstorms were a lot stronger. Almost every afternoon in the Summer the electricity would go out and thunder would be roaring non-stop! Ever since the mid-90's(AMO flip coincidence) our afternoon storms have lost their mojo. I also remember steering currents were quicker to. Sometimes the sun would come out so quickly after a major storm that steam would emanate from the puddles.

Posted: **Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:12 pm**

I'm sure some of this is selective memory, but it seems like prior to the mid-90s the Bermuda High was much stronger and much more persistent during the summer. I've lived in the Tampa Bay area of Florida since 1976 and for about the next 15 years it seemed like we'd consistently get summer storms in the afternoons between 4-8 almost every day. But then in the mid-90s the East Coast Trough ruled the roost (which is why NC had quite a run of hurricanes then) and it seems like we trade between troughs (which push the High axis south) and the classically-positioned Bermuda High all the time now, leading to storm steering flow varying on a weekly basis throughout our summers.

(One side note on the Bermuda high of interest to baseball fans: Back in the 1970s/1980s Wrigley Field had the reputation that Coors Field currently has for ridiculous amounts of offense including lots of wind-aided home runs (there was a famous 23-22 game in 1978 vs the Phillies in which Mike Schmidt hit 4 HR), but hasn't had that reputation since. Wrigley is configured north-south with the outfield bleachers on the north side. The Bermuda High during the summer brings southerly winds around its western periphery and I'm convinced its persistence and strength - as well as its classic position - during those decades is why there was so much offense in Wrigley back then.)

Posted: **Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:29 pm**

I moved here to FL in 2005 and I swear the summers were pretty boring regarding afternoon thunderstorms until about the last 5 years so :lol:

In all seriousness I think it all has to do with patterns over all. A stronger Bermuda ridge all means is mostly a drier eastern coast and wetter western FL coast. A weaker Bermuda ridge means more westerly flow so a wetter east coast of FL. La Nina summers definitely are drier overall, IMO.

So far this wet season is above average across most of central FL, and I agree with area Lakes fairly high.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:51 am**

I grew up in Lee county from 1978 until now. Growing up one could tell the time by the rain beginning. Without fail 3:30-5:00. I am pushing 50 now. The weather has dramatically changed. I haven’t been able to tell you what time is is in the afternoon in the last 8 years.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:53 am**

I suspect a good deal of this is perception/memory tricks. In most summers it evens out over time. Last year the best late day storms in my area happened in late august and early September. For those interested the national weather service in Ruskin has a great page on thunderstorm climo although the study timeframe has been more recent (IIRC from 2002 forward). Depending on the prevailing flow...almost without exception someone is getting big storms, but it can't be everyone everyday so backyard perception plays a huge role here.

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/Thunderstorm_Climatology

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