STORM2K

Lingering afternoon and evening convection for SE Florida. Is it late May?!?

It looks like our cooldown is going to be starting late this week and may loiter around for awhile. Jackets and hoodies should remain on standby. Chili, cornbread, firepits and bourbon (neat) weather...Yes please!

Here we see a typical setup for this winter for South Florida: strong east winds behind a front with clouds and rain over the Gulf Stream spreading into South Florida. Been overcast and raining all weekend. The warmer than normal waters off of SE Florida are a contributing factor. Rest of state looks good:

gatorcane wrote:Here we see a typical setup for this winter for South Florida: strong east winds behind a front with clouds and rain over the Gulf Stream spreading into South Florida. Been overcast and raining all weekend. The warmer than normal waters off of SE Florida are a contributing factor. Rest of state looks good:

https://i.postimg.cc/tTv41YsK/goes16-vis-swir-gom-202002161635.jpg

At least I’m not the only one who thinks that there has been more overcast than sunny days this winter.

Well we finally got a decently sunny day for once, of course the heat is back!

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1229514998554251266

Wow really cold GFS run. Hmmm. That seemed to have come out of nowhere. 30s into Central Florida?

Fortunately (for some of us ) the 18Z GFS isn't looking near as cold. Hopefully it was just the one run.

Subsequent GFS model runs continue to show some really pleasant cool WX for all of Florida. Mid level troughing certainly looking to become entrenched over the Eastern CONUS. Bring on those bonus North and Central Florida fireplace evenings! Even South Florida should benefit with a few late season nights where temps should dip into the 50's during the final days of Feb. and into the first week of March.

Yeah, I have been casually glancing at the extended medium to long range outlook 7-10.days out. The latest 6-10 day outlook and 8-14 day outlook is depicting below normal, and in some areas, much below normal temperatures for most of the Eastern CONUS. This includes the Florida peninsula for the extended period.

The latest GEFS teleconnections forecast indeed shows a spike with the PNA moving markedly positive as we get into next week on through to the end of February. A strong + PNA index, should it come to fruition, most certainly can deliver a pretty good cold shot down into our corner of the world and can offset the influence of + NAO, which we have seen dominant the westher pattern once agan this so called meteorological "winter" season.

Earlier in the week, GFS backed off on this, but the past couple of runs today including the latest 18Z GFS, has come back to this solution once again. I think with the CPC showing a major pattern change, I think it is becoming more apparent that we will see at least one more shot to get some some kind of decent cold weather around here before Spring really sets into place.

We will have a pretty good cool spell coming in behind this next shortwave, which will push a cold front through the peninsula during Friday. Rain moves through beginning Thursday.evening, and ending as the front clears the peninsula by late Friday/early Sat. Strong Polar High (1040 mb) progged to be near Texarkana, TX by late Friday afternoon, which will funnel cold northerly flow down into the peninsula.


Pretty good cold advection with temps.approaching freezing interior North Florida around the Suwannee River Valley region on Saturday morning potentially. This will be monitored closely But, no question much cooler Friday and Saturday peninsula--wide, as a colder north wind flow will ensue behind the front but the wind will.veer eventually to thr northeast heading into Sunday to moderate the airmass.

More later....
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Indeed northjaxpro, the CMC agrees with the GFS and the Euro does for the most part though not as deep of a trough. So yeah looks like some cold is on the way. GFS with 30s into Central Florida.

Latest guidance this morning has Jax NWS dropping to 33 degrees for Saturday morning. So a decent chance of seeing only the third freeze of this season.

Secondary 500 mb pulse of even lower heights should advect even colder air southward deep into Florida mid to late next week (Wed/Thurs). These mid level heights could easily drive South Florida night-time temps into the upper 40's for a couple nights. Still too early to know if the flow aloft will be more zonal (westerly) or northwesterly but that along with the extent of radiational cooling will best imply whether widespread Central Florida night-time temps will dip much below 40. 2-4 hour freezing temps will likely be limited to colder locations of far north Florida.

Impressive highly amplified, upper trough forecast going out to next week. Should this verify, this would undoubtedly be a direct, continental northwesterly flow straight from Canada down into the Eastern CONUS and down into the Florida peninsula. Definitely a very chilly week ahead next week as well. Possibly could be some of the coldest temps we may see this entire winter season, which is not saying a lot this particular year.

it's going to get chilly. a reminder that even during a "non winter".. it's still winter.

psyclone wrote:it's going to get chilly. a reminder that even during a "non winter".. it's still winter.

I am thankful Psyclone to get whatever cool snaps we can get, especially how warm this winter unfortunately has been this season, even though they have been far too llittle of them. We may have a possbility of seeing an inland freeze Saturday morning at my.locale. Next week looks like a possibility of seeing a potential of a freeze as well, so we may be able to squeeze out a couple of more opportunites from Mother Nature before we say goodbye to this "winter" season.

18Z GFS back to 30s into Central Florida.

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS back to 30s into Central Florida.

Wouldn't that be something? Put that torch away folks. It'll be back before we know it. For now.... enjoy!

chaser1 wrote:

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS back to 30s into Central Florida.

Wouldn't that be something? Put that torch away folks. It'll be back before we know it. For now.... enjoy!

Enjoy?!?!?

It's 43 F, 99% humidity, wet, cloudy, and windy here in Jax right now.

If this is "winter" this year, I'm ready for it to end.

Well, this morning, we have air that feels somewhat drier, if not that much cooler, and wispy broken cumulus streaming in from the W-NW.

No rain at all - this is one of those really boring, bone-dry frontal passages with "dynamics well to the north," isn't it?

Wow really cold overnight models for next week’s front. If that happens would be the longest stretch of well below normal temps all winter perhaps.