Florida Weather

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northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather

#15701 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:23 am

The coldest weather of the season is on.the way next week, if the GFS and Canadian are close to right on their latest model runs out through 7 days, it is going to happen. The 00Z EURO last night was slowly.coming around as well, but still is not as sharply amplified with the trough as the GFS and Canadian. Monitoring this closely for next week.


Cold, damp, and windy day on tap today here. We will be lucky to see 50 degrees today for max temp, but only if we see some sun later. Well, it looks like a freeze will likely happen here tomorrow morning. Temps forecast to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across intrerior Northeast Florida.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15702 Postby HurricaneBelle » Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:29 am

This front gave us the biggest one-hour temperature drop at KTPA this season. Previously all the fronts that came through gradually dropped the temp, say 3-5 degrees per hour over a few hours. But last night between 4AM and 5AM the temperature at KTPA plummeted from 70 to 57.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15703 Postby ronjon » Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:44 pm

northjaxpro wrote:The coldest weather of the season is on.the way next week, if the GFS and Canadian are close to right on their latest model runs out through 7 days, it is going to happen. The 00Z EURO last night was slowly.coming around as well, but still is not as sharply amplified with the trough as the GFS and Canadian. Monitoring this closely for next week.


Cold, damp, and windy day on tap today here. We will be lucky to see 50 degrees today for max temp, but only if we see some sun later. Well, it looks like a freeze will likely happen here tomorrow morning. Temps forecast to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across intrerior Northeast Florida.


Northjax, looks like the 12z Euro came in close to GFS and Canadian with a massive, deep long wave trough into the eastern US all the down through the GOM and FL peninsula. 850 mb temps below freezing for Friday and Saturday for the last weekend of Feb over central Florida. Gulf affect showers forecast (could we see snow flurries?). Tough to forecast that anytime in Florida but the set up is there.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15704 Postby gatorcane » Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:59 pm

Yep all three models show major cold heading to Florida late next week which lasts several days. Just when you think Florida escaped another winter, looks like it all comes in “at the last second.” :cold:

Fortunately the sun angle is a bit higher because had this been just a month or so back, could be even colder.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15705 Postby psyclone » Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:23 pm

Late season cold snaps chill the shelf waters and ultimately help stave off summer heat in the coastal areas. Once it's too late for a deep freeze...I find myself cheering on late winter and spring cold..
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Re: Florida Weather

#15706 Postby chaser1 » Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:32 pm

psyclone wrote:Late season cold snaps chill the shelf waters and ultimately help stave off summer heat in the coastal areas. Once it's too late for a deep freeze...I find myself cheering on late winter and spring cold..


Lets all hope that the added chill will help keep coastal waters from peaking any earlier then normal. Anything to keep the Red Tide in check is welcome. From what I've heard the , it's already begun to increase in concentration near the coastline in some places
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Re: Florida Weather

#15707 Postby chaser1 » Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:46 pm

Mid range GFS and EURO seem pretty steadfast with their dropping of mid level heights over the SE CONUS and throughout Florida. Details could change however if models verify, I have to think that optimal radiational cooling conditions will result in a few pockets throughout the state to approach or beat their lowest temps reached thus far this year. I think this may especially apply to area's further to the South. Friday's reinforcing short wave look to advect the coldest air all the way south but also appears poised to allow night-time temps to really drop. Let's see if model updates change much. If not, I'd expect respective NWS offices to start trending lower night-time temps for their weekend forecast. Nothin' like a little slice of January, in March!.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15708 Postby gatorcane » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:58 pm

Yeah Chaser, could be some of the coldest temps of the season for Florida late this week and into the weekend. The other thing is that the cold looks to last longer than the quick shots of the season so far with 5 to 6 days straight of below to much below normal temps. So maybe not a freeze but the duration of the cold and very low dew points can definitely have a negative effect on any tropicals.

Other thing I am watching is the possibility, albeit likely remote of some wintry precip over the Eastern Gulf and West-Central Florida. The GFS has an area of precip which develops likely due to very cold air overriding the relatively warmer Gulf waters. 850MB temps support the wintry precip but low-level temps look too warm, in the mid to upper 40s. Maybe the formation of graupel is possible though. Either way going to feel downright raw especially over Central and North Florida.

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Re: Florida Weather

#15709 Postby psyclone » Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:08 pm

The last stand of winter is going to be a decently chilly multi day event. Longer term we're rebounding to (and likely eventually somewhat above) normal. But normal heading into March is crazy nice. the cold temps will knock coastal water temps back and set the stage for cooling seabreezes (and perhaps sea fog) when the warmth eventually returns. It's been a warm winter overall but it has been really nice. Snowbirds, residents and vacationers have gotten their money's worth this year.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15710 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:23 am

Yep it's going to be a nice change. The duration of the cool down surprises me. Probably the longest cool down of the winter without teleconnection support. Should be the last of this winter. At least the 40's and 30's inland. So enjoy before the bugs and humidity return. :D
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Re: Florida Weather

#15711 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:16 pm

their saying after this cold snap will stay warm for some time because building high block all front making it into florida :cry:
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Re: Florida Weather

#15712 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:11 pm

Weather Channel shows 90 for high on thursday before front enters the picture. Won't be close to this cool down but at least back to around normal. So heat wave coming before back to normal. :eek:
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Re: Florida Weather

#15713 Postby psyclone » Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:47 pm

I'm really digging this changeable weather pattern. Nice variety
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Re: Florida Weather

#15714 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:00 pm

Well, goodbye to definitely among the warmest meteorological winter seasons I can ever recall across the Northeast Florida region for 2019-2020 season, thanks to another season-long abnormally dominant +NAO. I am pretty sure also of the overall region as well. We saw the warmest December and January ever on record here in Jax, and we saw the warmest day ever recorded for so early in the season back on February 13, with 89 degrees in Jax. We had no days of temperatures at or below 32F for the entire month of February, and for the entire season, only just 2 days of freezing temps recorded at both my home station, as well as the NWS Jax WFO. It was wet throughout the season and warm with a total of just under 11 inches of rain for the Dec-Feb period, ending yesterday, measured at my home locale. This is a lot of rain for what is normally our driest period of the year.

We start the Spring season now with temps on the upswing the first portion of this week. Models are picking up on another southern stream shortwave developing along the Gulf Coast beginning later Tuesday, and traversing east through the rest of week. This system looks to be yet another significant rainmsker for the region, as of right now. We will monitor the models with this system as time progresses.

Long range looks potentially interesting in that the latest 12Z GFS in 10 -12 days or so wants to develop another cut-off 500 mb Upper Level Trough across the Eastern CONUS . This has been changing from model tun to rum so this is definitely goingbto keep geeting fine-tuned by the models as time progresses. Just something to watch down the road.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15715 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:29 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Weather Channel shows 90 for high on thursday before front enters the picture. Won't be close to this cool down but at least back to around normal. So heat wave coming before back to normal. :eek:

Yep, 91° for a high this Thursday here in West Palm Beach before the frontal passage. Talk about ridiculous for this early in the year! :x
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Re: Florida Weather

#15716 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:27 am

We've got some pretty dull weather for a time - days of intermittent clouds and sun. If you look at the satellite loop, the entire SW Atlantic is showing waves upon waves of small puffy cumulus.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15717 Postby NDG » Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:30 pm

Orlando officially hit 90 today, beat the old record by 2 degrees. Glad that we get another great cool down this weekend, persistent 90s are not that far away.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15718 Postby MetroMike » Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:43 pm

Getting tired of this cold front passage every Thursday into Friday here in the Tampa area. Its been 4-5 weeks of this coolish Friday into Saturdays.
Never seen such a strange consistent winter pattern in my many years here if ever.
Wont be happy until warm weather decides to stay so we don't have to flip flop using the A/C to the heater all the time.
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Re: Florida Weather

#15719 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:11 pm

So it was 94º here in West Palm Beach for anyone that cares. :lol: That breaks the old record of 91º set back in 1964 on this day. It's going to be a long hot summer I can tell already!
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Re: Florida Weather

#15720 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:23 am

Heavier rain than I thought this morning - didn't last long of course but was coming down nicely for a little while. Car definitely needed a good soaking.
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