STORM2K

Low 60's dewpoints and a Novemberish atmospheric waterload and a dazzling sky..summer is over here in the bay area. The high is still close to 90 but it is a much kinder 90 than July. No rain is expected in the next 7 days either. and so far another year of burning down the hurricane season without even a good scare. 1 risky month to go..

Classic early La Nina pattern setting in, lots of sun but temps still very warm to hot during the day because of lack of rain and precip.
But I agree, the lower humidity, which is going away through next week, felt much better.
Even current low 70s dewpoints is much better than the upper 70s dewpoints we had in early September.

Surprisingly, I had a short shower here, in west St Pete, late afternoon yesterday. I love to have nature's nutrients on my plants rather than well water.

Now, I'm hoping we have a quiet October and an early, cold winter in December.

stpeteweathergal wrote:Surprisingly, I had a short shower here, in west St Pete, late afternoon yesterday. I love to have nature's nutrients on my plants rather than well water.

Now, I'm hoping we have a quiet October and an early, cold winter in December.

Amen to that!

And while the EURO might be hinting toward possible development in the far Southern Caribbean around this time next weekend...... my eye's are focused on the next cool front passing through Florida!! Sure, the days will still be warm and possibly mid to upper 60's lows for inland and W. Coast but at least another shot of dryer air and 850mb northerly winds all the way south through the Keys!

With this pattern set up with a -PNA don't expect any significant cold fronts to come through FL at least through the next 2 weeks.

you got that right. humidity and rain chances returning despite the calendar

Is going to feel a lot like summer inland over the Peninsula during the work week, especially with dewpoints back into the 70s.

This pattern is definitely not going to allow cool weather into Florida let alone most of the Central and Eastern US. Even much of Canada will be well above normal. Eventually it will come to an end allowing a strong front through Florida but all I can say is I am ready for fall weather.

gatorcane wrote:This pattern is definitely not going to allow cool weather into Florida let alone most of the Central and Eastern US. Even much of Canada will be well above normal. Eventually it will come to an end allowing a strong front through Florida but all I can say is I am ready for fall weather.

Long range GFS fail yet again!

toad strangler wrote:

gatorcane wrote:This pattern is definitely not going to allow cool weather into Florida let alone most of the Central and Eastern US. Even much of Canada will be well above normal. Eventually it will come to an end allowing a strong front through Florida but all I can say is I am ready for fall weather.

Long range GFS fail yet again!

That's why is always good to look at forecasted synoptic patterns to give any kind of credibility at the GFS's long range forecast, not unless that strong cold front forecast is in the short range forecast if the synoptic pattern doesn't agree with it.

The long-range GFS lower dew points which we have seen verified though so it got the overall pattern change that happened.

Really feeling like "Fall" over the last few years in FL just means "not as many pop-up showers". Might not see lows drop below 65F before November, at least here in central Florida.

as far as the wet and rainy season goes...first it gets hot in May, then it gets wet...in the fall first it dries out then it cools off. there's always "foot off the gas" before there's any brake tapping. We no longer have the needed solar insolation for big storms so they're done but we're stuck waiting for a legit push of cool and dry air. we're entitled to that in October but it's usually in the 2nd half of the month. Tampa still hasn't fallen below 70 yet. Normal for that is about oct 1 so we're running a bit late. But the first drop below 60 is late month. so change won't be far off and the longer it delays the more spectacular it could be. In the meantime the longer nights and shorter days will need to suffice.

We may get a break from the 90s here in Orlando tomorrow and Monday after 8-9 days in the 90s for highs and a high of 95 on Thursday, but 90s will return after Monday.
Continuation of either a -PNA and or +EPO is keeping ridging across the eastern US for at least the next 2 weeks.

Nice break from the humidity from Sunday through early next week across central FL. Will see widespread 60s for lows across the I-4 corridor with highs in the low to mid 80s before heat & humidity returns later in the week.

How deeeelightful it is with dewpoints crashing into the 50's and the season's first sub 70 low on the docket tonight here locally. Cane season ended up as a snooze fest for FL and with nina in charge hopefully we'll get the same for the freeze season. Above normal temps and below normal precip should be favored for FL this Winter...that's the best combo one can hope for...

Nothing definitive yet, but seeing some model support for another cooldown in 10 days or so.

psyclone wrote:How deeeelightful it is with dewpoints crashing into the 50's and the season's first sub 70 low on the docket tonight here locally. Cane season ended up as a snooze fest for FL and with nina in charge hopefully we'll get the same for the freeze season. Above normal temps and below normal precip should be favored for FL this Winter...that's the best combo one can hope for...

Agreed. SO much nicer than the many months of wretched 90's and pressure-cooker humidity we're so accustomed too. Only thing I question is how much will this LaNina, actually behave like a Winter LaNina?

Looks like it may just be a below normal Halloween temp-wise looking at the latest GFS and Euro.