STORM2K

Currently 32.0F here. Just hit the freezing mark. It was 33.7F when I woke up at 3am. Only an hour or so to go then up. This should not be too bad, but still what a wake up call after all that heat!

I just measured 21.7 degrees just before the 6 a.m. hour. This is the coldest temperature I have measured so far this entire season here at my home location. We had perect radiational cooling conditions overnight and leading into sunrise. It may drop another degeee or so until after sunrise. I am certain there are a few spots that may have dropped into the upper teens across the area.

It will get a bit warmer today with highs in the upper 50s here today, but the real warm-up will begin tomorrow as the Artic High shifts farther east into the Western Atlantic and the upper flow becomes zonal across the region. Highs will be well into the 70s by mid week.

Wow, from Ocala area on northward is very cold this morning, from the I-4 corridor on southward the winds stayed up strong enough to keep the air mixing thus not creating the perfect radiatioanl cooling like northern FL has this morning.

I saw the dewpoints come up. At 6pm yesterday, dewpoints were in the lower teens but raised to near 30F by sunrise. There was a hint of frost in my open back yard, but at 32F it could have been worse. I just looked around and cannot find anything damaged other than the tops of Brugmansias and the tallest banana leaves. I am thrilled this is over! Now can we get back to our regularly scheduled la nina winter?

The mercury bottomed out at 21.3 degrees earlier today. No question, the azalea blooms and some of the other tree buds will undoubtedbly sustain some damage up in here in this region. Although it was a very quick shot of cold, it was a pretty impressive arctic air mass nonetheless. It was the coldest spell of this season in the northern peninsula. One good thing about this cold snap we just had is that it will scour out the pollen that has been stirring around in the air due to so much unseasonable warmth in this La Nina pattern this season.

Well, for now, the models are not indicating any other arctic air masses heading into this region of the country anytime soon. The warm-up is now underway and we will see mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday and hopefully later this week some much needed rain will come our way beginning Thursday. I have only received just over 1/3 of an inch since the first of January. WE desperately need some moisture in this part of the state.

After a brisk 32F with just a hint of frost on Monday morning, both Wed and Thur went over 80F here! Now the 3 day weekend is here, and it does not look real nice. This persistent subtropical jet keeping things rather cloudy, on and off, with some light showers, appears again. What rains we have received have not been heavy enough to do much. Just murky. I'd love to see our endless sunny days return, particularly on the weekend if that is not asking too much! )

Possible record highs on Sunday in Miami and West Palm per latest NWS Miami Discussion:

CLIMATE...
FOLLOWING ARE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW FOR EAST COAST LOCATIONS
ALONG WITH THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE:

MIAMI 87...86 IN 1988
WEST PALM BEACH 86...86 IN 1992
FORT LAUDERDALE 87...89 IN 1926
MIAMI BEACH 84...88 IN 1959

a strong southwest wind should roast the lower half of the east coast tomorrow. given enough sun, those records could fall. talk about awesome beach weather in Feb!

Chamber of Commerce week coming up down here...only a slight, and short-lived, cool down with the front moving through tonight, followed by a return to above normal temps. Average high/low in Fort Lauderdale for this time in February is 78/64.


NWS Forecast for: Fort Lauderdale FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 8:01 am EST Feb 19, 2012
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 87.
Tonight: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Washington's Birthday: Sunny, with a high near 75.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 83.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 82.

30-40mph gusts off an iceberg today here in Tallahassee have driven temps into the 40s. Big change from last week. The winds seem to be coming down this morning.

CONSIDERABLY chillier this morning at 55F with a brisk 5-10mph wind. Sunny for a change although a few high clouds. Recent weeks have seen that fetch of subtropical jet stream keep us milky...not quite cloudy. I had the AC on yesterday for a short time because it was so humid and windy. Now, I have on a sweatshirt to work in the yard this AM...........That's February! Warmer temps this week!

I hate that winter has decided to skip Florida here.

High 80s expected on Friday.

Still keeping those clouds hanging around. MOnday was a sunny day - mostly - but Tues and Wed more clouds. This evening a squall pushed in from the Gulf with just less than an inch of welcomed rainfall! Heaviest rain since well before Xmas, but so needed. This subtropical fetch of clouds is keeping us mild, and unless some record cold surges down, winter could be done here. Overall, nice and warm with only a few cold shots....just like it should be!

It looks as if finally some much needed rain is on tap this weekend for much of the peninsula. A cold front will pass through overnight across the Jax metro area and drift south before it stalls out by Sunday. A shortwave disturbance moving in from the Western GOM forms a frontal wave along the front Saturday night into Sunday. It appears that a decent overrunning precipitation event is in store for north and central portions of the state, and some possible strong thunderstorms across the southern peninsula, especially on Sunday.


For those planning on going to Orlando for the outdoor NBA All-Star festivities and the Daytona 500 on Sunday, well the models at this time shows the forecast does not look good for those events. The rain is definitely needed as I have only measured just under 1.5 inches since the start of the 2012 here at my location in Jax. Hopefully, we can get a nice steady rain with this upcoming event as my lawn and garden desperately needs it for sure.

I had measured a max temp today of 86.2 degrees, which is the warmest temp measured here so far for 2012. Now, some clouds have moved in overhead and dropped the temps a few degrees. Now 81.7 degrees. Southwest winds today gusting to near 40 mph all afternoon long here. There are some severe thunderstorms just north of my area up in Southeast GA, with a few tornado warnings prompted just north of Brunswick, GA at this hour. I am closely monitoring radar as a new line of thunderstorms appear to be developing across the Suwannee River basin moving eastward. That area of storms may impact the Jax metro area later this evening if it holds together.

Very tricky forecast for Sunday's events in the Orlando & Daytona area.
Latest 06z GFS shows heaviest precip to occur from Ocala to Daytona with Daytona receiving close to a 1/2" & Orlando 1/4-1/2", rains starting as early as the noon time hours through early evening as the frontal boundary moves northward along as with the UL disturbance moving thorugh and onshore winds moving in from the Atlantic.
The only good news is the NAM at least through its 06z run keeping the heaviest rain across northern FL keeping Orlando mostly dry but still giving Daytona close to a quarter of an inch.
But one thing for sure the Daytona 500 looks to have high chances of being wet, at least at times. Bad timing I guess, after we have been so dry now the pattern decides to go at least average in precip chances.

NDG wrote:Very tricky forecast for Sunday's events in the Orlando & Daytona area.
Latest 06z GFS shows heaviest precip to occur from Ocala to Daytona with Daytona receiving close to a 1/2" & Orlando 1/4-1/2", rains starting as early as the noon time hours through early evening as the frontal boundary moves northward along as with the UL disturbance moving thorugh and onshore winds moving in from the Atlantic.
The only good news is the NAM at least through its 06z run keeping the heaviest rain across northern FL keeping Orlando mostly dry but still giving Daytona close to a quarter of an inch.
But one thing for sure the Daytona 500 looks to have high chances of being wet, at least at times. Bad timing I guess, after we have been so dry now the pattern decides to go at least average in precip chances.

Good morning NDG!

Here in Jax, it looks to be a raw, wet and chilly day tomorrow for sure. A very good overrunning event is setting up nicely for tomorrow for North Florida as we both have discussed. We need the rain badly for sure, but bad timing for the Daytona 500 tomorrow. They are going to have a hard time getting any racing started down there.

I received just under 1/3 inch of rain in a fast moving line of showers last night just ahead of the frontal passage. More rain on tap tomorrow.

Good morning northjaxpro, I am just happy that Wednesday evening I got close to an inch of rain, the most 1 day rain I have seen in this area since October
Nice to see the grass green again. BTW, my high yesterday was 89 degs, felt like a late spring day versus a late meteorological winter day.

Yeah, I measured 86 degrees for max temp yesterday. It felt like late Spring /early summer yesterday for sure.

Now, with the front to our south, temperatures today and tomorrow will be nearly 30 degrees colder for max temps than Friday. Max temps today only near 60 for Jax and only mid 50s tomorrow at best with the clouds and rain and the northeast-east onshore wind flow off the Atlantic keeping conditions rather raw.

The weather up here is very bipolar in the panhandle. Pensacola reached a record high of 81, and now the forecast for tonight from the NWS Mobile...

Tonight: A slight chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain showers and sleet between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of rain showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected

Not much of a front. 85* tomorrow.