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Portastorm wrote:Yeppers ... the GFS and Euro continue to advertise the ridge over Texas breaking down in about a week. And yes the GFS for days now has shown significant moisture in the Western Gulf poised to move into the state. But until then ... it's the Frying Pan Summer 2011!
I'm thinking we may hit 105 today in Austin. It was several degrees warmer this morning at 8 am than the last few days.
Travis and Williamson counties will go without fireworks this Independence Day.
Travis County Judge Sam Biscoe on Tuesday declared a local state of disaster, including a ban on the sale and use of fireworks. Williamson County Judge Dan A. Gattis on Tuesday also issued a disaster declaration banning the sale of fireworks in the county.
The Travis County fire marshal is not approving any permits for public fireworks shows. Austin and Pflugerville have canceled their scheduled displays. In a typical July Fourth season, fireworks can be legally sold in counties from June 24 to July 4. Under state law, the sale of fireworks is legal in counties but not inside city limits.
With the disaster declaration, county prohibitions on fireworks last 2½ days. Gov. Rick Perry has the authority to extend the fireworks ban. Perry has indicated he would grant an extension of Travis County's declaration until July 5, according to county staff. Williamson County has forwarded its declaration to Perry asking for an extension.
Williamson and Travis are among several counties in the state in the highest category of drought, exceptional. Travis County has been under a burn ban since Dec. 14.
If conditions change, Biscoe said commissioners may lift the disaster declaration and fireworks ban.
Tireman4 wrote:Harris County too:
Fireworks Restriction
On June 7th 2011, Harris County Commissioners Court approved a restriction on the sale and use of restricted fireworks (skyrockets with sticks and missiles with fins) due to drought conditions. This restriction is effective immediately and will continue as long as drought conditions exist in Harris County. Recent afternoon thunderstorms have had little effect on reducing the drought; the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI) has increased to over 700 in the past two days. It is currently at 708 on scale of 0-800. Under a local declaration of disaster by County Judge Ed Emmett, additional restrictions may apply if drought conditions do not improve. The Harris County Fire Marshal's Office will continue to monitor drought conditions and outdoor fire danger.
http://www.hcfmo.net/
jasons wrote:Tireman4 wrote:Harris County too:
Fireworks Restriction
On June 7th 2011, Harris County Commissioners Court approved a restriction on the sale and use of restricted fireworks (skyrockets with sticks and missiles with fins) due to drought conditions. This restriction is effective immediately and will continue as long as drought conditions exist in Harris County. Recent afternoon thunderstorms have had little effect on reducing the drought; the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI) has increased to over 700 in the past two days. It is currently at 708 on scale of 0-800. Under a local declaration of disaster by County Judge Ed Emmett, additional restrictions may apply if drought conditions do not improve. The Harris County Fire Marshal's Office will continue to monitor drought conditions and outdoor fire danger.
http://www.hcfmo.net/
Just the aerials so far, which seems to happen almost every year now. I believe they meet again on the 17th to determine if it will include ALL fireworks. A buddy of mine owns a few stands and as an eternal optimist he says "I'm not worried about it; they'll pay them off with enough money to keep us open". I told him "Sorry, dude, I just don't think it's gonna happen this year..."
BY MID WEEK THE UPR TROUGH BREAKS THE HIGH INTO TWO PIECES...ONE
ACROSS THE ATL AND ONE IN THE PAC AND THIS LEAVES A WEAKNESS ACROSS
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ASSOC BLOB OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWS SHOWN BY
GFS > 2.5 INCHES) IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHERE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER WAVE BUT STRONGER ATLANTIC
TROUGH AND THEREFORE MOVES THE WAVE AND DEEPEST MOISTURE FASTER
ACROSS THE AREA W/ THU BEING THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIP. THE GFS IS
WEAKER W/ THE ATL RIDGE AND IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTH
AND THE BEST PRECIP DAYS APPEAR LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A STRONGER SYSTEM BORDERING ON BECOMING
A DEPRESSION AND IT EVENTUALLY TAKES IT MORE NRLY W/ HIGHEST
MOISTURE MVG INTO SE TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH IT STILL SHOWS
SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ERN CWA. REALLY IS WAY TO
EARLY TO TELL AND MODELS (ESP GFS) HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
REGARDING THE DETAILS WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING BEING NEARLY A WEEK
OUT. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS HOWEVER TO
BEGIN TO INTRODUCE POPS AS THE RISK OF JINXING IT FOR DROUGHT
STRICKEN S TX. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH TO INCLUDE 10-20 POPS FOR TUE AND WILL SHOW THEM
INCREASING TO 10-30 WED AND THU W/ HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
FOR NOW REALIZING THIS COULD EASILY GO UP IF FASTER TIMING PANS OUT
AND HIGHS WHICH ARE TRENDED DOWN COULD ALSO BE STILL TOO HIGH. HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME WATCH THIS DURING THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP OUR
FINGERS CROSSED.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...NOT GOING TO DWELL ON THE
FIRST TWO THIRDS OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE PERSISTENT
HEAT...HUMIDITY AND WIND TO PERSIST. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO WEAKEN
JUST A TAD OR THE CENTER OF THE 50H RIDGE GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER THEN NORMAL MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE SAME WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MINIMUMS AND MAXIMUMS. ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR MID JUNE AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS GETTING DEEPEN AND
STRONGER WITH LOW PRESSURE BECOMING DEEPER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HUMIDITY LEVELS NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH OR INCH UPWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CLIMB AND
THE FETCH OF WINDS THAT ARE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTH ACROSS THE
GULF AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID SOME OF THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MUCH DEEPER FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ COULD GET
PULLED NORTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN
INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES ANYWHERE FROM THE WESTERN GULF...THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.
UNCERTAINTY RESIDES WITH THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION
FORMATION IN THE FORM OF STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SPREADING NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
ADD SILENT 10 POPS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE
WEEKEND. WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN THIS LONG TERM DROUGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIVE BY THE SAYING WHEN IN DOUBT LEAVE IT OUT. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO POSITIVELY...THINK...RAIN.
Shoshana wrote:Day 12 but the Austin area might get a break next week....
Shoshana wrote:Day 12 of 100+ officially. Not keepin track of 100+ at the house!
What is crazy is that we avg 12 in a summer - and it's not even summer yet!
Shoshana wrote:eep!!!! So is it any drier than normal in Houston? Cause the humidity is usually brutal!
I just saw the 7 day forecast from KXAN
Friday 104*
Sat 105*
Sun 105*
Mon 103
Tues 101 (10% chance of isolated tstorms)
Wed 99 (20% chance of isolated tstorms)
*record for day
What's unnerving is that I have heard several forecasters talking about 2009's 68 days of 100+ and the all time record of 69 days... (gulp)
I sure hope they are wrong. When it hit 109F officially here it was 112F at my house and the AC wouldn't cool the house below 82F(and it was working fine-We have added insulation since then). Is it Winter yet?Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
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