2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll: The closest was #72 HurricaneFan (17/10/5)

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TheAustinMan
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (Poll has closed with 98 participants)

#181 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Hopefully we can see more participants next year, although the poll's opening has been pushed to May 1.


Poll opened on April 1.


You said on the first post though that 2018's poll will open on May 1, which is what I was referring to.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (Poll has closed with 98 participants)

#182 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:13 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Hopefully we can see more participants next year, although the poll's opening has been pushed to May 1.


Poll opened on April 1.


You said on the first post though that 2018's poll will open on May 1, which is what I was referring to.


Oh yeah.I forgot I put it at the end of post but is a fact poll will open in 2018 on May 1.Hopefully we get more participants than the 98 of 2017.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (Poll has closed with 98 participants)

#183 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:53 pm

Wow missed 100 participants by only two members. I say we make an exception an extend the deadline just a little more until we get just two more :P
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (Poll has closed with 98 participants)

#184 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow missed 100 participants by only two members. I say we make an exception an extend the deadline just a little more until we get just two more :P


What the heck, I'd second that. :uarrow:
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (Poll has closed with 98 participants)

#185 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:34 pm

[quote="cycloneye"]:uarrow: Thank you for posting the final stats of the poll.Very interesting data.We will see at the end of season how the members fared.

[quote]Hopefully we can see more participants next year, although the poll's opening has been pushed to May[quote]

Yep, I really enjoy the poll analysis as well! What I find particularly interesting is how S2K as a body, has been as accurate or even more accurate then a number of professional organizations & professionals in recent years. In fact, I'd bet that if one were to exclusively "graph out" June 1st forecasts (not, taking into account later mid-season updated forecasts) for S2K along with those other Professional Predictions that we typically discuss and follow, the result would likely indicate a pretty consistent relative level of pre-season forecast accuracy.

The data where you indicated how the early-on S2K member forecasts were primarily lower, but then how later member forecasts started to become more bullish (perhaps a reflection of updated or new professional forecasts?) was thought provoking. One could make a theoretical case that most or all S2K members more or less simply mirror other Professional forecasts or leanings, but I wouldn't necessarily agree with that. Another theory might suggest that member forecasts would largely represent individual "wishcast bias", but that would incorporate both many low-ball as well as very high individual forecasts. I would think that if this were true, the result would likely show a huge swing in S2K year-to-year variable accuracy (which I also doubt). I basically attribute S2K's reasonably consistant year to year accuracy as simply being a pretty decent spread of member forecasts, not unlike how Global Model runs might be generated by a broad spread of individual member runs (some of which having their own forecast bias as well).

Regardless, I find the data and numbers as interesting stuff to analyze & play with.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (Poll has closed with 98 participants)

#186 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:46 am

I vote we add wxman57

wxman57 wrote:Bret in 1993 and 1999 occurred in August. Why not Bret of 2017? Forgot to input my season numbers in that thread, but I'm thinking 16/8/4.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (Poll has closed with 98 participants)

#187 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:52 am

tolakram wrote:I vote we add wxman57

wxman57 wrote:Bret in 1993 and 1999 occurred in August. Why not Bret of 2017? Forgot to input my season numbers in that thread, but I'm thinking 16/8/4.


Making an overruling to myself to add him climbing to 99 participants.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (Poll has closed with 99 participants)

#188 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:31 pm

Can I jump in too to make it an even 100 participants?

I'm thinking 15/7/3.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (Poll has closed with 100 participants)

#189 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:50 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Can I jump in too to make it an even 100 participants?

I'm thinking 15/7/3.


Because I wanted to get to 100 and it was only one below I overruled again myself to allow your numbers.But that is it so anymore participants.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll: The closest was #72 Hurricane Fan (17/10/5)

#190 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:38 am

The most closer member that posted numbers to what the 2017 season had (17/10/6) was #72 on the list Hurricane Fan that was one major shy of getting all right. Thanks to all that participated and let's do it again in 2018.

1-cycloneye=14/7/2 (Final)
2-King-6=16/11/4 (Final)
3-weathaguyry= 19/9/5 ACE:182 (Final)
4-gigabite=16/8/5 ACE: 177 (Final)
5-Hypercane_Kyle=11/5/2 (Final)
6-northjaxpro=14/6/3 (Final)
7-tarheelprogrammer»21/10/4 ACE: 177 (Final)
8-tolakram =14/8/3 (Final)
9-Steve= 14/6/2 ACE: 106 (Final)
10-crownweather=12/7/3 ACE: 100 (Final)
11-Hurricaneman=19/10/5 ACE: 200 (Final)
12-CrazyC83=16/7/3 ACE: 115 (Final)
13-bg1=15/8/4 ACE 145 (Final)
14-CFLHurricane=16/10/3 (Final)
15-AnnularCane=15/8/3 (Final)
16-Andrew92=18/9/4 ACE:165 (Final)
17-TheAustinMan=15/7/2 ACE: 105 (final)
18-FLCrakerGirl=15/8/3 (Final)
19-johngaltfla=9/3/1 ACE: 62 (Final)
20-StormClouds63=13/7/3 (final)
21-vbhoutex=13/6/3 ACE: 87 (Final)
22-panamatropicwatch=12/7/2 (Final)
23-Bocadude85=13/6/3 (Final)
24-Kazmit=16/7/3 (Final)
25-TheStormExpert=16/8/4 ACE: 145 (Final)
26-Blown Away=13/5/3 ACE: 110 (Final)
27-100feettstormsurge=14/6/3 (Preliminary)
28-weatherwindow=15/7/4 )Final)
29-chaser1=18/11/4 (Final)
30-FrankP=15/8/2 ACE: 157.2 (Final)
31-TropicalAnalystwx13=14/6/2 (Preliminary)
32-gatorcane=17/9/4 (Final)
33-StormTracker=16/6/4 (Preliminary)
34-Kingarabian=10/5/3 (Final)
35-Ntxw=16/6/3 ACE 103 (Final)
36-euro0208=12/5/2 (Final)
37-AtlanticWind=16/9/5 (Final)
38-Kennethb=15/7/3 (Final)
39-Seadootoo =13/8/3 (Final)
40-terstorm1012 =14/8/2 (Final)
41-Alyono=18/10/4 ACE:185 (Final)
42-Trader Ron=15/7/2 (Final)
43- JtSmarts=17/10/4 (Final)
44-Extratropical94=15/8/4 ACE: 118.5 (Final)
45-Hurricane Andrew=16/8/3 ACE: 101 (Preliminary)
46-Yellow Evan=15/8/4 ACE: 140 (Preliminary)
47-Marcocane=12/5/3 ACE: 100 (Final)
48-KatDaddy=14/7/4 ACE: 110 (Final)
49-J_J99=15/7/4 ACE: 130 (Final)
50-WeatherEmperor=12/6/3 (Final)
51-beoumont=15/7/3 (Final)
52-CYCLONE MIKE=14/6/2 ACE:105 (Final)
53-404UserNotFound=12/6/2 ACE: 90 (Final)
54-Hurricane Jed=15/8/3 (Final)
55-ouragans=14/6/2 (Final)
56-StormingB81=12/7/2 (Final)
57-travis1320=20/11/4 (Final)
58-AutoPenalti= 18/10/3 ACE: 170 (Final)
59-MGC=12/5/2 ACE: 89 (Final)
60-Florida1118=15/7/4 (Final)
61-wayne56=19/8/5 ACE:140 (Final)
62-RL3AO=15/6/3 (Final)
63-GCRain=14/8/2 (Final)
64-Tireman4=12/9/3 (Final)
65-SFLcane=15/8/4 (Final)
66-Kalrany=15/7/4 ACE: 138 (Final)
67-Brent=16/7/3 (Final)
68-galaxy401=14/7/4 (Final)
69-joey=12/6/3 (Final)
70-bamajammer4eva=13/7/3 (Final)
71-boca=14/6/3 (Final)
72-HurricanaFan=17/10/5 ACE: 175 (Final)
73-Evil Jeremy=16/8/4 ACE:170 (Final)
74-SETXWXLADY=13/5/3 (Final)
75-hurricanehunter69=19/11/4 ACE:186 (Final)
76-jasons=15/5/2 (Final)
77-grentz7721=14/7/3 (Final)
78-Agua=13/4/2 (Final)
79-HurrMark=15/6/3 ACE: 90 (Final)
80-AxaltaRacing24=17/9/4 ACE:165 (Final)
81-Cleveland Kent Evans=17/7/4 (Final)
82-p1nheadlarry=15/8/3ACE:118.5 (Final)
83-Krit-tonkla=15/7/2 ACE:105 (Final)
84-OuterBanker=14/6/3 ACE:110 (Final)
85-emeraldislenc=17/8/3 (Final)
86-KAlexPR=17/9/5 (Final)
87-wzrgirl1=17/8/4 (Final)
88-USTropics=18/8/5. ACE:175 (Final)
89-Hybridstorm_November2001=18/11/5 (Final)
90-AdamFirst=16/7/3 ACE:200 (Final)
91-Taxman=17/7/3 (Final)
92-gulf701=12/6/3 (Final)
93-Old-TimeCane=15/8/3 ACE: 140 (Final)
94-Cyclenall=15/7/4 ACE: 129 (Final)
95-psyclone=15/7/3 (Final)
96-Larrywx=9/5/2 (Final)
97-NotoSans=15/8/5 (Final)
98-MamaSmith2k17=13/9/4 (Final)
99-wxman57=16/8/4 (Final)
100-South Texas Storms=15/7/3 (Final)
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